Season: 84-49
Last Week: 5-8
ATS: 15-20-1 (Last Week: 0-4)
Lock: 3-6
Redskins: 7-1
Brutal week all around. Thought my lock wound up being a pretty bad beat as Houston really dominated that game before totally choking it away late. But any way you slice it, I got smashed last week both SU and ATS. Nothing like following up a 4-0 week against the number with an 0-4 effort.
Washington at Minnesota: These Thursday night games have been weird. The vibe seems off and for the most part the games have been sloppy and a bit uninspired. The combined record of these teams is 4-12 so I don't expect to see thing play out much differently this Thursday. The Redskins look much more competent and composed than they did over the first couple weeks of the season, but they are struggling to find consistency--especially on offense. However, unlike the Vikings, the Redskins are still alive in the playoff race and you have to wonder if Minnesota has much left in the tank for this game.
Redskins 27, Vikings 20
Jacksonville at Tennessee: Quietly the Titans are hanging around in the wild card discussion. Things certainly shouldn't get any worse for them this week, although I see Jax keeping this one close.
Titans 24, Jaguars 17
Philadelphia at Green Bay: I suppose my theory that the Packers would be a 5-11 team without Aaron Rodgers is about to be put to the test. Hard to tell if what we saw from Philly last week was some sort of adjustment from Chip Kelly or just a randomly amazing outing from Nick Foles. Lots of unknowns in this game, but I know a tad more about who Philly is than I do about Green Bay minus their star.
Eagles 27, Packers 24
Buffalo at Pittsburgh: The Bills have done a bunch of good things this year and their fans can finally feel pretty good about their future, but their crushing injuries at QB have derailed any serious hopes this year. Sounds like EJ Manuel will be back this week, but in a battle of two teams desperately trying to keep their seasons alive, I'll stick with the more seasoned Steelers.
Steelers 29, Bills 20
Oakland at New York Giants: Horrible showing for the Raiders last week as their defense was humiliated. I also wonder if the league isn't catching on to Terrelle Pryor's game. Coming off a bye, playing at home against a west coast team-- I like how this shapes up for the Giants, who could very well find themselves only one game out in the loss column after this week.
Giants 28, Raiders 20
St. Louis at Indianapolis: Andrew Luck really is amazing; his knack for dramatic wins at such a young age is remarkable-- Indy is clearly never out of game as long as he is under center. I believe he is the most dynamic QB talent we've seen in the league in 20+ years. He doesn't have a ton of help on that side of the ball, especially without Reggie Wayne, but he continually makes plays. He should be near the top of MVP chatter right now.
Colts 25, Rams 17
Seattle at Atlanta: The Falcons are toast-- it makes a little bit of sense considering they are missing White and Jones at WR, but they started this slide even when those two were healthy and playing. Their defense is average at very best and their offense is now pedestrian. Seattle has been playing with fire all year, but they just keep winning- and that is ultimately an admirable trait. I see another fairly close, ugly win for the Hawks on Sunday.
Seahawks 20, Falcons 16
Cincinnati at Baltimore: Disappointing loss for the Bengals last Thursday after it looked like they had that game in hand. Therein lies the problem with the Bengals-- they stand alone atop their division, but every time you want to start looking at them like a true SB contender, they lay an egg-- usually on the road. That's where they find themselves again this week-- this time against the desperate defending champs. Cincy is by far the more complete team here, but my vote is a shaky one due to their road woes thus far.
Bengals 23, Ravens 21
Detroit at Chicago: I picked the Lions to win the division this year. With Aaron Rodgers on the shelf for several weeks this game shapes up to be a monumental one in determining who will take the crown. I like the Lions in this spot despite the fact that McCown has looked very good so far filling in for Cutler.
Lions 30, Bears 27
Carolina at San Francisco: Panthers look very solid right now, but I have a feeling that a rested 49ers defense is going to give Cam fits this week.
49ers 22, Panthers 13
Houston at Arizona: The game against Indy was probably the last stand for the Texans this year. They poured themselves into that game, had it in the bag, and blew it. That has to be a crushing thing for them to deal with--- and then you have to factor in the Kubiak situation-- not a great spot for Houston.
Cardinals 23, Texans 20
Denver at San Diego: The Chargers secondary has coverage issues and they were handled fairly easily by a so-so Redskins WR corps. Peyton has a field day and Rivers can't keep up.
Broncos 41, Chargers 27
Dallas at New Orleans: I made a mistake going against trends last week picking the Cowboys to cover the spread against the Vikings. Over a four year sample, the underdog has covered the spread in over 70% of Cowboys games which sort of proves the theory that Dallas plays to the level of their completion. This week, they step up in competition. I like the Saints to get back on track, but if trends hold, Dallas will give them all they want.
Saints 33, Cowboys 29
Miami at Tampa Bay: Playing a hunch here that TB is motivated to get their first W while at the same time the Dolphins' PR mess proves to be a big distraction.
Bucs 21, Dolphins 19
Against the Spread (lock listed first)
1. Broncos (-7) at Chargers
2. Steelers (-3) vs. Bills
3. Lions (PICK) at Chicago
4. Redskins (-2.5) at Vikings
Last Week: 5-8
ATS: 15-20-1 (Last Week: 0-4)
Lock: 3-6
Redskins: 7-1
Brutal week all around. Thought my lock wound up being a pretty bad beat as Houston really dominated that game before totally choking it away late. But any way you slice it, I got smashed last week both SU and ATS. Nothing like following up a 4-0 week against the number with an 0-4 effort.
Washington at Minnesota: These Thursday night games have been weird. The vibe seems off and for the most part the games have been sloppy and a bit uninspired. The combined record of these teams is 4-12 so I don't expect to see thing play out much differently this Thursday. The Redskins look much more competent and composed than they did over the first couple weeks of the season, but they are struggling to find consistency--especially on offense. However, unlike the Vikings, the Redskins are still alive in the playoff race and you have to wonder if Minnesota has much left in the tank for this game.
Redskins 27, Vikings 20
Jacksonville at Tennessee: Quietly the Titans are hanging around in the wild card discussion. Things certainly shouldn't get any worse for them this week, although I see Jax keeping this one close.
Titans 24, Jaguars 17
Philadelphia at Green Bay: I suppose my theory that the Packers would be a 5-11 team without Aaron Rodgers is about to be put to the test. Hard to tell if what we saw from Philly last week was some sort of adjustment from Chip Kelly or just a randomly amazing outing from Nick Foles. Lots of unknowns in this game, but I know a tad more about who Philly is than I do about Green Bay minus their star.
Eagles 27, Packers 24
Buffalo at Pittsburgh: The Bills have done a bunch of good things this year and their fans can finally feel pretty good about their future, but their crushing injuries at QB have derailed any serious hopes this year. Sounds like EJ Manuel will be back this week, but in a battle of two teams desperately trying to keep their seasons alive, I'll stick with the more seasoned Steelers.
Steelers 29, Bills 20
Oakland at New York Giants: Horrible showing for the Raiders last week as their defense was humiliated. I also wonder if the league isn't catching on to Terrelle Pryor's game. Coming off a bye, playing at home against a west coast team-- I like how this shapes up for the Giants, who could very well find themselves only one game out in the loss column after this week.
Giants 28, Raiders 20
St. Louis at Indianapolis: Andrew Luck really is amazing; his knack for dramatic wins at such a young age is remarkable-- Indy is clearly never out of game as long as he is under center. I believe he is the most dynamic QB talent we've seen in the league in 20+ years. He doesn't have a ton of help on that side of the ball, especially without Reggie Wayne, but he continually makes plays. He should be near the top of MVP chatter right now.
Colts 25, Rams 17
Seattle at Atlanta: The Falcons are toast-- it makes a little bit of sense considering they are missing White and Jones at WR, but they started this slide even when those two were healthy and playing. Their defense is average at very best and their offense is now pedestrian. Seattle has been playing with fire all year, but they just keep winning- and that is ultimately an admirable trait. I see another fairly close, ugly win for the Hawks on Sunday.
Seahawks 20, Falcons 16
Cincinnati at Baltimore: Disappointing loss for the Bengals last Thursday after it looked like they had that game in hand. Therein lies the problem with the Bengals-- they stand alone atop their division, but every time you want to start looking at them like a true SB contender, they lay an egg-- usually on the road. That's where they find themselves again this week-- this time against the desperate defending champs. Cincy is by far the more complete team here, but my vote is a shaky one due to their road woes thus far.
Bengals 23, Ravens 21
Detroit at Chicago: I picked the Lions to win the division this year. With Aaron Rodgers on the shelf for several weeks this game shapes up to be a monumental one in determining who will take the crown. I like the Lions in this spot despite the fact that McCown has looked very good so far filling in for Cutler.
Lions 30, Bears 27
Carolina at San Francisco: Panthers look very solid right now, but I have a feeling that a rested 49ers defense is going to give Cam fits this week.
49ers 22, Panthers 13
Houston at Arizona: The game against Indy was probably the last stand for the Texans this year. They poured themselves into that game, had it in the bag, and blew it. That has to be a crushing thing for them to deal with--- and then you have to factor in the Kubiak situation-- not a great spot for Houston.
Cardinals 23, Texans 20
Denver at San Diego: The Chargers secondary has coverage issues and they were handled fairly easily by a so-so Redskins WR corps. Peyton has a field day and Rivers can't keep up.
Broncos 41, Chargers 27
Dallas at New Orleans: I made a mistake going against trends last week picking the Cowboys to cover the spread against the Vikings. Over a four year sample, the underdog has covered the spread in over 70% of Cowboys games which sort of proves the theory that Dallas plays to the level of their completion. This week, they step up in competition. I like the Saints to get back on track, but if trends hold, Dallas will give them all they want.
Saints 33, Cowboys 29
Miami at Tampa Bay: Playing a hunch here that TB is motivated to get their first W while at the same time the Dolphins' PR mess proves to be a big distraction.
Bucs 21, Dolphins 19
Against the Spread (lock listed first)
1. Broncos (-7) at Chargers
2. Steelers (-3) vs. Bills
3. Lions (PICK) at Chicago
4. Redskins (-2.5) at Vikings
