Season: 93-54
Last Week: 9-5
ATS: 18-21-1 (Last Week: 3-1)
Lock: 4-6
Redskins: 7-2
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Both of these teams completely crapped their pants last week. I found the 38-0 hole the Colts dug themselves against the Rams was the most shocking result of the NFL season thus far. The Titans become the Jags first (and possibly only) victim this year. Both teams must be happy this is a short week, but it is about to become a much longer week for one of them.
Colts 23, Titans 20
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Dreadful game. Bucs seem to be playing pretty hard, but I'm thinking they might relax a bit now that they are off the 0-16 watch.
Falcons 21, Bucs 17
New York Jets at Buffalo: The Jets have been all over the place this year, but on paper this looks like a good match up for their defense against the struggling Bills. But I don't trust the Jets offense to move the ball well enough against a fairly solid Bills defense.
Bills 19, Jets 16
Detroit at Pittsburgh: I am starting to feel pretty good about my Lions pick to win their division this year. Detroit is not a special team, but they are balanced across the board and they can slash you at any moment with the Stafford/CJ combo. I think they keep things rolling this week.
Lions 27, Steelers 22
Washington at Philadelphia: Eagles have lost a mind boggling ten straight home games. The Redskins have been a cure for teams looking to break negative streaks in recent years (just ask the Lions) and the time seems right for Philly to finally bring one home (literally). Redskins will have no answers for Shady McCoy.
Eagles 29, Redskins 21
San Diego at Miami: Two teams that aren't feeling quite as good as they did four weeks ago. Both are struggling, but only one appears to be battling internally. The Dolphins have completely blown the handling of the bullying story and it is going to derail their season.
Chargers 24, Dolphins 20
Baltimore at Chicago: As many champions find out, nothing has come easy for the Ravens this year who are managing to just keep their heads above water. Brutal loss for Chicago last week who now find themselves in serious danger of falling too far behind Detroit given the fact that the Lions own the tie breaker. Mild upset in Chicago this week.
Ravens 28, Bears 25
Cleveland at Cincinnati: Bengals are likely going to win the division, but they continue to stub their toes on the road whenever they have a chance to distance themselves from the pack. I think they snap their mini losing streak on Sunday, but this team doesn't appear overly dangerous right now.
Bengals 23, Browns 16
Oakland at Houston: Looks like the NFL has Terrelle Pryor figured out; it was fun while it lasted.
Texans 24, Raiders 17
Arizona at Jacksonville: The Cardinals are by far the quietest contending team in the league right now. They are a win at lowly Jacksonville away from sitting at 6-4 and in the hunt for a wild card. But I'm not a believer in Carson Palmer and I think it comes crashing down in Florida.
Jaguars 17, Cardinals 16
Minnesota at Seattle: The Seahawks have faced very few challenges this year as their schedule seems to get easier by the week (similar to KC). But it is also clear from the eye test that this is a very good team that is going to be a major factor in January.
Seahawks 27, Vikings 17
San Francisco at New Orleans: The Niners look very mortal right now as their offense seems to slog and regress weekly. They certainly don't appear to be anywhere close to the explosive offense that took the Saints down in New Orleans last year. I am going to play a hunch here that they find a bit of what they've lost.
49ers 23, Saints 20
Green Bay at New York Giants: Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley, Terrell Pryor, and now Scott Tolzien. This is how you find your pulse after an 0-6 start.
Giants 26, Packers 24
Kansas City at Denver: Finally we get to figure out something substantial about the Chiefs. Not sure whether I think the Broncos roll them or if I think the Chiefs are going to be the stopper for the Broncos offense. Ultimately, I don't trust Alex Smith to keep pace, even if the Chiefs defense is able to slow said pace.
Broncos 30, Chiefs 17
New England at Carolina: Dark horse Super Bowl preview? No, I don't think the horse is THAT dark, but it isn't a total joke. Carolina can really play some defense, but the Pats have had two weeks to prepare and heal. I see Brady finding some holes and ending the Panthers win streak.
Patriots 27, Panthers 20
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Patriots (+2.5) at Panthers
2. Ravens (+3) at Bears
3. Broncos (-8) vs. Chiefs
4. Jaguars (+7) vs. Cardinals
Last Week: 9-5
ATS: 18-21-1 (Last Week: 3-1)
Lock: 4-6
Redskins: 7-2
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Both of these teams completely crapped their pants last week. I found the 38-0 hole the Colts dug themselves against the Rams was the most shocking result of the NFL season thus far. The Titans become the Jags first (and possibly only) victim this year. Both teams must be happy this is a short week, but it is about to become a much longer week for one of them.
Colts 23, Titans 20
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Dreadful game. Bucs seem to be playing pretty hard, but I'm thinking they might relax a bit now that they are off the 0-16 watch.
Falcons 21, Bucs 17
New York Jets at Buffalo: The Jets have been all over the place this year, but on paper this looks like a good match up for their defense against the struggling Bills. But I don't trust the Jets offense to move the ball well enough against a fairly solid Bills defense.
Bills 19, Jets 16
Detroit at Pittsburgh: I am starting to feel pretty good about my Lions pick to win their division this year. Detroit is not a special team, but they are balanced across the board and they can slash you at any moment with the Stafford/CJ combo. I think they keep things rolling this week.
Lions 27, Steelers 22
Washington at Philadelphia: Eagles have lost a mind boggling ten straight home games. The Redskins have been a cure for teams looking to break negative streaks in recent years (just ask the Lions) and the time seems right for Philly to finally bring one home (literally). Redskins will have no answers for Shady McCoy.
Eagles 29, Redskins 21
San Diego at Miami: Two teams that aren't feeling quite as good as they did four weeks ago. Both are struggling, but only one appears to be battling internally. The Dolphins have completely blown the handling of the bullying story and it is going to derail their season.
Chargers 24, Dolphins 20
Baltimore at Chicago: As many champions find out, nothing has come easy for the Ravens this year who are managing to just keep their heads above water. Brutal loss for Chicago last week who now find themselves in serious danger of falling too far behind Detroit given the fact that the Lions own the tie breaker. Mild upset in Chicago this week.
Ravens 28, Bears 25
Cleveland at Cincinnati: Bengals are likely going to win the division, but they continue to stub their toes on the road whenever they have a chance to distance themselves from the pack. I think they snap their mini losing streak on Sunday, but this team doesn't appear overly dangerous right now.
Bengals 23, Browns 16
Oakland at Houston: Looks like the NFL has Terrelle Pryor figured out; it was fun while it lasted.
Texans 24, Raiders 17
Arizona at Jacksonville: The Cardinals are by far the quietest contending team in the league right now. They are a win at lowly Jacksonville away from sitting at 6-4 and in the hunt for a wild card. But I'm not a believer in Carson Palmer and I think it comes crashing down in Florida.
Jaguars 17, Cardinals 16
Minnesota at Seattle: The Seahawks have faced very few challenges this year as their schedule seems to get easier by the week (similar to KC). But it is also clear from the eye test that this is a very good team that is going to be a major factor in January.
Seahawks 27, Vikings 17
San Francisco at New Orleans: The Niners look very mortal right now as their offense seems to slog and regress weekly. They certainly don't appear to be anywhere close to the explosive offense that took the Saints down in New Orleans last year. I am going to play a hunch here that they find a bit of what they've lost.
49ers 23, Saints 20
Green Bay at New York Giants: Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley, Terrell Pryor, and now Scott Tolzien. This is how you find your pulse after an 0-6 start.
Giants 26, Packers 24
Kansas City at Denver: Finally we get to figure out something substantial about the Chiefs. Not sure whether I think the Broncos roll them or if I think the Chiefs are going to be the stopper for the Broncos offense. Ultimately, I don't trust Alex Smith to keep pace, even if the Chiefs defense is able to slow said pace.
Broncos 30, Chiefs 17
New England at Carolina: Dark horse Super Bowl preview? No, I don't think the horse is THAT dark, but it isn't a total joke. Carolina can really play some defense, but the Pats have had two weeks to prepare and heal. I see Brady finding some holes and ending the Panthers win streak.
Patriots 27, Panthers 20
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Patriots (+2.5) at Panthers
2. Ravens (+3) at Bears
3. Broncos (-8) vs. Chiefs
4. Jaguars (+7) vs. Cardinals
