Season: 15-17
Last Week: 6-10
Redskins: 2-0
ATS: 2-6 (Last Week: 1-3)
Lock: 0-2
Oh my. Brutal start. Brutal straight up and brutal ATS. The Adrian Peterson news was an unforeseen event that led me to hastily changing one pick ATS, but even then, this has to be my worst two week start since I started doing this forever ago. I've missed on my upsets, and my locks have BECOME upsets. I'm licking my wounds a bit, but confident we can get this ship righted.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Early in the year, I try to stick to my pre-season picks even in the face of contrary evidence. I was not a fan of the Falcons entering this season, and while I wasn't a fan of the Bucs either, I do think they are better than they've shown thus far. I can't quite get to calling the upset here, but I think TB keeps this one very close.
Falcons 24, Bucs 22
San Diego at Buffalo: Coin flip game for me. Too early to tell whether or not this is a random hot start to what will be a blah season for Buffalo or if these results are legit and a sign of things to come. I wasn't high at all on Buffalo before the year, so for now I'll stick to my guns and pick the mild upset here, but I'm certainly wary of the Chargers making the cross country trip. Very much a "stay away" game for me.
Chargers 20, Bills 17
Dallas at St. Louis: Hmmmm....Dallas defense is making me wonder if the might not be dreadful after all. And they get Scandrick back this week against a Rams offense that is probably as easy to prepare for and defend as any in the league. This is another total toss up.
Rams 23, Cowboys 21
Washington at Philadelphia: Trent Dilfer hinted this week that he believes Chip Kelly might be the best football coach. Maybe ever. While I'm not quite ready to scratch Lombardi's name off the trophy and etch Kelly in it's place, I do marvel at how efficiently that offense runs despite not having any great talents outside of McCoy and maybe Sproles. The way they get the balls to those guys with room to maneuver is amazing. And defensively, they aren't star-studded or overly impressive, but they do enough to let their offense win games for them. This is the Eagles division right now and I don't think any of the other three have much of a chance to challenge them. Things will get tougher on Kirk Cousins now that teams can prepare for him and he feels the pressure of being the starter.
Eagles 29, Redskins 17
Houston at New York Giants: I know they've gone 2-0 against the lowly Redskins and Raiders, but I'm really liking what I see from the Texans-- especially defensively. JJ Watt is insanely disruptive and they have enough playmakers throughout the defense to make you pay if you decide to focus too much attention on him. Arian Foster looks sharp and healthy again and Fitzpatrick won't lose games for you if you don't ask him to do too much. The Giants are already desperate, but I'm not sure it really matters. I picked them to beat Arizona last week, but if they can't beat Drew Stanton.....
Texans 21, Giants 17
Minnesota at New Orleans: Sometimes, "distractions" can be a blessing in disguise. Sometimes teams can rally around a severely injured player or a local tragedy. There is no blessing to this AD situation though. No bright side. No pluses for the Vikings. Their best player is sidelined indefinitely and I see no silver linings. Going on the road to face an 0-2 Saints squad is an absolutely horrible spot for Minnesota. This gets ugly.
Saints 38, Vikings 16
Tennessee at Cincinnati: This is one of those games I talk myself out of because it just seems so easy. The Bengals haven't lost a regular season game at home since 2012 and they are 8-1 ATS in the those games. In other words, for over a year now, they've been crushing teams in Cincy (except when it mattered most of course). The Titans looked like hot garbage last week in all facets. This seems so incredibly easy. Which of course means I'm scared to death of it.
Bengals 23, Titans 13
Baltimore at Cleveland: The Browns got off to the abysmal start in the first half of their first game, but over the past 6 quarters have looked pretty darn good. Hoyer is moving them down the field and their defense is solid. Hard to see either offense getting much breathing room this week, but I have a slight lean to the home team.
Browns 19, Ravens 16
Green Bay at Detroit: Lions did what the Lions do. I should have known. They follow up a very impressive performance on the opening Monday Night of the season by laying an egg in Carolina. They were terrible. Lions fans know this Jekyll and Hyde act all too well over the past several years. Lots of teases followed by disappointments. Luckily for them, Green Bay hardly looks like the Super Bowl contender they were billed to be before the year. Lions get back on the horse and nip the Pack.
Lions 30, Packers 27
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: We accepting mulligans on Super Bowl picks? If so, I'd like to take mine on the Colts right now. Not impressive at all. Their defense is average at best and the offensive line is probably the worst in the league. No running game and no overly dangerous weapons on the outside. This game comes at a perfect time for them, but I wouldn't expect a blowout.
Colts 27, Jaguars 20
Oakland at New England: There are no unscheduled bye weeks in the NFL, but you gotta figure this is about as close as it gets. Charles Woodson said this week that his team "sucks." I concur. So does everyone else with eyes.
Patriots 31, Raiders 16
San Francisco at Arizona: The uncertain status of Carson Palmer certainly affects the outlook for this game, but I will cast a shaky vote for the Niners either way. The team we saw Sunday Night against the Bears is actually the team I EXPECTED to see this year. Just don't think they are as scary or powerful as they have been the previous three seasons. The defense is missing too many key components and the offense doesn't do anything in chunks. I like them to grind out a W on Sunday, but it's not a slam dunk by any means.
49ers 21, Cardinals 20
Denver at Seattle: Throw the revenge business out the window. The only way Denver can exact revenge for the Super Bowl beatdown is if these two teams meet again in Arizona on Feb. 1st. This Sunday will be all about the here and now and the current match-ups. Denver will keep this one close, but I don't see Peyton having a big day-- until someone can go into that building and show me otherwise, I will simply defer to the Seahawks at home.
Seahawks 28, Broncos 23
Kansas City at Miami: Dolphins very impressive week one and then quite the disappointment in week two. Kansas City was horrendous week one and then fairly impressive in their loss in Denver. Chiefs look very much like the team that stumbled down the stretch last year and nothing like the team that started 9-0. Miami is a mystery to me. It's another stay away game for me for sure.
Dolphins 23, Chiefs 20
Pittsburgh at Carolina: Upset of the week. Really impressed with the Panthers thus far-- as a matter of fact, they might be the most impressive team in the NFL through two weeks. But something tells me with 10 days to prepare, the Steelers will be ready for the physical nature of this game. Yardage will be tough to come by on both sides and I always like Big Ben in those spots to make a few plays. Steelers pull it out late.
Steelers 20, Panthers 18
Chicago at New York Jets: I'm trying not to let the first six quarters of the Bears season fool me too much. I like this roster. For now, I'm chalking it up to a slow start and leaning on the comeback in SF as evidence that they are rolling now.
Bears 27, Jets 21
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Steelers (+3.5) at Panthers
2. Bucs (+6) at Falcons
3. Bears (+3) at Jets
4. Cowboys (UNDER 45) at Rams
Last Week: 6-10
Redskins: 2-0
ATS: 2-6 (Last Week: 1-3)
Lock: 0-2
Oh my. Brutal start. Brutal straight up and brutal ATS. The Adrian Peterson news was an unforeseen event that led me to hastily changing one pick ATS, but even then, this has to be my worst two week start since I started doing this forever ago. I've missed on my upsets, and my locks have BECOME upsets. I'm licking my wounds a bit, but confident we can get this ship righted.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Early in the year, I try to stick to my pre-season picks even in the face of contrary evidence. I was not a fan of the Falcons entering this season, and while I wasn't a fan of the Bucs either, I do think they are better than they've shown thus far. I can't quite get to calling the upset here, but I think TB keeps this one very close.
Falcons 24, Bucs 22
San Diego at Buffalo: Coin flip game for me. Too early to tell whether or not this is a random hot start to what will be a blah season for Buffalo or if these results are legit and a sign of things to come. I wasn't high at all on Buffalo before the year, so for now I'll stick to my guns and pick the mild upset here, but I'm certainly wary of the Chargers making the cross country trip. Very much a "stay away" game for me.
Chargers 20, Bills 17
Dallas at St. Louis: Hmmmm....Dallas defense is making me wonder if the might not be dreadful after all. And they get Scandrick back this week against a Rams offense that is probably as easy to prepare for and defend as any in the league. This is another total toss up.
Rams 23, Cowboys 21
Washington at Philadelphia: Trent Dilfer hinted this week that he believes Chip Kelly might be the best football coach. Maybe ever. While I'm not quite ready to scratch Lombardi's name off the trophy and etch Kelly in it's place, I do marvel at how efficiently that offense runs despite not having any great talents outside of McCoy and maybe Sproles. The way they get the balls to those guys with room to maneuver is amazing. And defensively, they aren't star-studded or overly impressive, but they do enough to let their offense win games for them. This is the Eagles division right now and I don't think any of the other three have much of a chance to challenge them. Things will get tougher on Kirk Cousins now that teams can prepare for him and he feels the pressure of being the starter.
Eagles 29, Redskins 17
Houston at New York Giants: I know they've gone 2-0 against the lowly Redskins and Raiders, but I'm really liking what I see from the Texans-- especially defensively. JJ Watt is insanely disruptive and they have enough playmakers throughout the defense to make you pay if you decide to focus too much attention on him. Arian Foster looks sharp and healthy again and Fitzpatrick won't lose games for you if you don't ask him to do too much. The Giants are already desperate, but I'm not sure it really matters. I picked them to beat Arizona last week, but if they can't beat Drew Stanton.....
Texans 21, Giants 17
Minnesota at New Orleans: Sometimes, "distractions" can be a blessing in disguise. Sometimes teams can rally around a severely injured player or a local tragedy. There is no blessing to this AD situation though. No bright side. No pluses for the Vikings. Their best player is sidelined indefinitely and I see no silver linings. Going on the road to face an 0-2 Saints squad is an absolutely horrible spot for Minnesota. This gets ugly.
Saints 38, Vikings 16
Tennessee at Cincinnati: This is one of those games I talk myself out of because it just seems so easy. The Bengals haven't lost a regular season game at home since 2012 and they are 8-1 ATS in the those games. In other words, for over a year now, they've been crushing teams in Cincy (except when it mattered most of course). The Titans looked like hot garbage last week in all facets. This seems so incredibly easy. Which of course means I'm scared to death of it.
Bengals 23, Titans 13
Baltimore at Cleveland: The Browns got off to the abysmal start in the first half of their first game, but over the past 6 quarters have looked pretty darn good. Hoyer is moving them down the field and their defense is solid. Hard to see either offense getting much breathing room this week, but I have a slight lean to the home team.
Browns 19, Ravens 16
Green Bay at Detroit: Lions did what the Lions do. I should have known. They follow up a very impressive performance on the opening Monday Night of the season by laying an egg in Carolina. They were terrible. Lions fans know this Jekyll and Hyde act all too well over the past several years. Lots of teases followed by disappointments. Luckily for them, Green Bay hardly looks like the Super Bowl contender they were billed to be before the year. Lions get back on the horse and nip the Pack.
Lions 30, Packers 27
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: We accepting mulligans on Super Bowl picks? If so, I'd like to take mine on the Colts right now. Not impressive at all. Their defense is average at best and the offensive line is probably the worst in the league. No running game and no overly dangerous weapons on the outside. This game comes at a perfect time for them, but I wouldn't expect a blowout.
Colts 27, Jaguars 20
Oakland at New England: There are no unscheduled bye weeks in the NFL, but you gotta figure this is about as close as it gets. Charles Woodson said this week that his team "sucks." I concur. So does everyone else with eyes.
Patriots 31, Raiders 16
San Francisco at Arizona: The uncertain status of Carson Palmer certainly affects the outlook for this game, but I will cast a shaky vote for the Niners either way. The team we saw Sunday Night against the Bears is actually the team I EXPECTED to see this year. Just don't think they are as scary or powerful as they have been the previous three seasons. The defense is missing too many key components and the offense doesn't do anything in chunks. I like them to grind out a W on Sunday, but it's not a slam dunk by any means.
49ers 21, Cardinals 20
Denver at Seattle: Throw the revenge business out the window. The only way Denver can exact revenge for the Super Bowl beatdown is if these two teams meet again in Arizona on Feb. 1st. This Sunday will be all about the here and now and the current match-ups. Denver will keep this one close, but I don't see Peyton having a big day-- until someone can go into that building and show me otherwise, I will simply defer to the Seahawks at home.
Seahawks 28, Broncos 23
Kansas City at Miami: Dolphins very impressive week one and then quite the disappointment in week two. Kansas City was horrendous week one and then fairly impressive in their loss in Denver. Chiefs look very much like the team that stumbled down the stretch last year and nothing like the team that started 9-0. Miami is a mystery to me. It's another stay away game for me for sure.
Dolphins 23, Chiefs 20
Pittsburgh at Carolina: Upset of the week. Really impressed with the Panthers thus far-- as a matter of fact, they might be the most impressive team in the NFL through two weeks. But something tells me with 10 days to prepare, the Steelers will be ready for the physical nature of this game. Yardage will be tough to come by on both sides and I always like Big Ben in those spots to make a few plays. Steelers pull it out late.
Steelers 20, Panthers 18
Chicago at New York Jets: I'm trying not to let the first six quarters of the Bears season fool me too much. I like this roster. For now, I'm chalking it up to a slow start and leaning on the comeback in SF as evidence that they are rolling now.
Bears 27, Jets 21
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Steelers (+3.5) at Panthers
2. Bucs (+6) at Falcons
3. Bears (+3) at Jets
4. Cowboys (UNDER 45) at Rams
