Based in Herefordshire and with the accolade of being only the second female to train the winner of the Aintree Grand National, Venetia Williams remains one of those trainers that can be relied upon to send out a stream of National Hunt winner's season upon season.
Probably now most famous for her 100-1 Grand National winner MON MOME it should not be forgotten that she has also trained and nurtured other high class beasts such as TEETON MILL, LADY REBECCA, IDOLE FIRST, NORDANCE PRINCE and Welsh National winner JOCKS CROSS.
Like most top yards the Williams stable also supplies us punters with many trends that we can profit from.
But where do these trends and sweet spots exist?
What tracks should we be concentrating on when Venetia is in town?
Where do her Runners struggle to make an impact?
Do her runners struggle at certain times of the year?
Which jockeys show the best (and worst) strike rates for the yard?
Let's take a look......
TRACKS
The first thing that struck me when looking through the stables course stats was that there are not really any tracks where they have an overall poor profile. There are certain race types at specific courses where their runners struggle but in general terms the show solid enough stats at most tracks.
However, I wanted to find some sweet spots and negative trends so I went digging and came up with the following -
Ludlow
This was the one track where we could say her runners do show a solid all-round performance -
109 runners | 25 winners | 23% S/R | +£71.53 LSP
The strike-rate can be improved dramatically if we only look at their runners in non-handicap Chases -
12 runners | 6 winners | 50% S/R | +£22.20 LSP
Warwick
All handicap hurdles
17 runners | 6 winners | 35% S/R | +£15.50 LSP
This angle becomes even more impressive when we consider that 12 of the 17 have finished in the top 3 for a 71% top 3 strike-rate.
As previously mentioned it's hard to pin down a real 'negative' track for the Williams yard but I have unearthed 3 track angles that we should be very wary of -
Cheltenham
Venetia is more than capable of pulling of a handicap coup or 2 at Prestbury Park, however when it comes to her runners in non-handicaps the stats are telling us that her runners are best avoided -
Runners in all non-handicap races
35 runners | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£35.00 LSP
Aintree
The same rule also applies to Aintree -
Runners in all non-handicap races
25 runners | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£25.00 LSP
Kempton
All hurdle runners
39 runners | 2 winners | 5% S/R | -£28.75 LSP
JOCKEYS
Aidan Coleman is firmly in the driving seat when it comes to riding for the yard and he takes a massive chunk of rides throughout the season. With such a high volume of rides it's not easy to pinpoint the sweet spots but here are a couple that caught my eye -
Coleman/Williams combo - Favs in All Non-Handicap Chases
22 runners | 13 winners | 59% S/R | +£5.83 LSP
Coleman/Williams combo - All Ludlow Chasers
15 runners | 6 winners | 40% S/R | +£6.20 LSP
High strike-rates and minor profits on the LSP side but the main thing is they show a profit.
There is currently a young jockey picking up a number of rides for the yard, however, either his riding style does not suit the horses or he is yet to be given a leg up on one with a real chance -
Harry Challoner
41 rides | 1 winners | 2% S/R | -£38.13 LSP
For whatever reason Mr Challoner and the Williams horses just do not seem to strike a happy balance.
MONTHS
No real super strong months for Venetia's horses but there is one mini angle that caught my attention in April -
April - Non-Handicap hurdlers over 20f or less - SP 9/4 or less
13 runners | 8 winners | 62% S/R | +£6.64 LSP
It's a skinny one but it's profitable and if they have a fancied runner in these types of races in April it's worth at least a second glance.
There are a couple of times in the year when the yards runners are maybe not quite firing on all cylinders -
August
26 runners | 1 winner | 4% S/R | -£22 LSP
Obviously more of a rest month for the yard and anything they do send out maybe isn't fully tuned up or simply not up to the job.
October
124 runners | 6 winners | 5% S/R | -£78.75 LSP
The National Hunt season is slowly starting to warm up at this stage but it also looks like the yards runners are slowly warming up as well. A time for watching or laying rather than punting.
FAVOURITES
It's always handy to know if a yard can be relied upon to do the business when the weight of money is behind one of their runners. The Williams yard has a decent overall record with favs but there is one area that they seem to really excel in when the money is down -
Favourites in Non-Handicap Chases
72 runners | 39 winners | 54% S/R | +£11.27 LSP
The Venetia Williams yard is possibly one of the most popular amongst National Hunt fans and if we take the time to dig deep we can also make it a profitable yard for ourselves.
A big part of my punting approach is about building profitable angles and although some of the above may look a bit on the slim side they all count in the bigger picture.
Does anyone else have any alternative 'Venetia angles' that they utilise?
Feel free to discuss them in the comments section of this post.
NTF Cheltenham Festival Guide 2011
It's the one you have all be waiting on!
Work is currently under way on this year's NTF Cheltenham festival guide. I've got some way to go to better last year's effort but I'll damn well give it my best shot!!
Last season's guide produced over 80pts LSP (BF SP) and included such punting gems as -
POKER DE SIVOLA - 14/1
WEAPONS AMNESTY - 10/1
SPIRIT RIVER - 14/1
ALBERTAS RUN - 14/1
GREAT ENDEAVOUR - 18/1
SOLDATINO - 6/1
BARIZAN - 14/1 (E/W)
DEE EE WILLIAMS - 20/1 E/W
This year's guide promises to be BIGGER and BETTER than last year with even more info packed in and plenty of trends to get your festival juices flowing.
Sign up to the FREE NTF updates list (top right hand corner of Blog) to be kept up to date with the news on this years NTF Cheltenham Festival guide - you really don't want to miss out!!
Ben (NTF)
