According to Antique Stock Broking, Airtel and Jio, among major telecom operators, are anticipated to increase tariff rates after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Analysts forecast a 15 to 17 percent price hike in the telecom sector. Bharti Airtel may see the most significant benefit, with ARPU expected to reach ₹286 by FY27.

According to an analyst report from Antique Stock Broking, major telecom operators such as Airtel and Jio are expected to increase their tariff rates after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The world’s largest democracy will hold elections in seven phases from April 19 to June 4, with results announced on June 1.

Quoted by PTI, the analyst report describes the tariff increase as ‘imminent,’ suggesting a potential 15 to 17 percent price surge in the telecom sector after the general election. Bharti Airtel is purportedly poised to benefit the most from this hike, with its ARPU projected to rise from ₹208 to ₹286 by FY27.

The brokerage anticipates Bharti Airtel’s revenue to double the industry average over the next three years due to tariff hikes, 2G upgrades, enterprise and Fibre to Home network expansion, and decreased capital expenditure following 5G deployment. Bharti Airtel’s capex is projected at ₹75,000 crore for FY24-26, with analysts foreseeing a significant decrease post the 5G rollout, potentially fostering a favorable transformation in the telecom sector.

“Although challenges persist due to Bharti’s distinct 5G deployment strategy compared to major competitors, we don’t anticipate a substantial impact on Bharti’s subscriber base or growth. Moreover, we believe current valuations don’t adequately capture the increasingly favorable macro environment in the telecom sector,” observed Antique Stock Broking in the report.

The report highlights Jio and Airtel’s growing market dominance over the past 5.5 years, while Vodafone Idea and BSNL have seen declining market share. Jio has notably benefited the most, with its market share soaring from 21.6 percent to 39.7 percent during this period.

According to the Antique Stock Broking report, telecom tariffs are expected to rise by 15 to 17 percent after the general elections, held in 7 phases from April 19 to June 1, with vote counting on June 4. The report suggests a long-awaited tariff hike in the telecom sector post-elections, with Bharti Airtel poised to benefit the most. It anticipates a 15 to 17 percent industry-wide tariff increase, following the last hike of about 20 percent in December 2021, marking nearly a three-year interval.

A 17 percent hike would raise the cost of a Rs 300 recharge to Rs 351. The Brokerage Note presents Airtel’s ARPU as Rs 208 for FY 2026-27, with a potential increase to Rs 286. The report anticipates Airtel’s customer base to grow at double the industry’s rate, while noting Vodafone Idea’s market share decline from 37.2 percent in September 2018 to 19.3 percent in December 2023, contrasting with Airtel’s rise from 29.4 percent to 33 percent and Jio’s surge from 21.6 percent to 39.7 percent over the same period.

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