Not all games are created equal, and the fantasy football gods certainly shorted this Thursday nighter of high-end producers, but that doesn’t mean we can’t gain an edge when working out our same game Parlay Picks for the Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders contest!

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Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Odds

• Spread
  Commanders -6
• Moneyline
  Commanders -265, Bears +215
• Total
  44.5

We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.

Trivia Question: Can you name either starting quarterback in the last game these teams played in which the home team won (hint: 2013 season)?

Every good story has a plot that builds the foundation for the rest of your adventure, and my Week 5 same game parlay picks are no exception. Clean football. It may not be exciting football, but I do think we get a reasonably clean contest between these two underwhelming offenses.

Why? Erase the names from the jerseys and just look at the style of play. We know that interceptions are more predictive than fumbles in the turnover department, and we know that deep passes are more likely to be intercepted than shallow ones.

I’m not breaking ground there, so with us seeing two below-average aDOT offenses that would prefer to run the ball, I think you see where I’m headed.

The other way to ramp up the turnover equity is to create heat on the QB — another thing I find unlikely to happen in this spot with a pair of bottom-12 pressure units.

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Sam Howell was awful in a blowout loss to the Bills in Week 3, but other than that, he’s thrown just one pick on 111 attempts. As for Justin Fields, he was throwing the rock less than 30 times per game prior to the outlier Week 4 performance, a level of volume that makes turnovers in bunches a tall task.

Look at this rep from Justin Fields. pic.twitter.com/iGGwKJ3RCi

— Dave (@dave_bfr) October 2, 2023

If these teams are playing clean football, as I expect, short fields are going to be difficult to come by. With neither of these teams the chunk-play type on offense, that means that successful drives are likely to be long and drawn out.

In that vein, these Thursday nighters typically start slow (no more than seven first-quarter points in six of the past seven), a trend I very much believe continues in this spot.

Last but not least is the touch distribution in Washington. Antonio Gibson has more fumbles this season (three) than explosive plays (two), leading me to believe that his role won’t be increased any time soon.

The Bears defense is 10th-best this season in yards per carry against, and considering that Gibson hasn’t hit the number that books currently have him projected for in five straight games, I don’t think now is when he turns things around.

• Trivia Answer: Robert Griffin III (WAS) vs. Josh McCown (CHI)
• Same Game Parlay Pick: Under 9.5 first-quarter points, under 22.5 rushing yards for Antonio Gibson, and under 2.5 turnovers
• Odds: +460 (at DraftKings)