MATCH ANALYSIS IN BRIEF

KEY BETTING STATS

• England have beaten Pakistan in seven of their last eight official ODI fixtures against each other – To Win the Match.
• Adil Rashid has taken 2+ wickets in five of England’s last six 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup group stage matches – Bowler Milestones.
• Mohammad Wasim has taken eight wickets across Pakistan’s last three 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup group stage matches – Team – Top Bowler.

BETTING ANALYSIS For ENGLAND

England restored some pride and ended their five-match losing streak with a comfortable victory over the Netherlands by 160 runs. However, they’ll come up against a significantly stronger side here in Pakistan, with a bowling attack that will put their batters under huge pressure. Fast bowler Mark Wood is likely to return in place of Gus Atkinson, but aside from that, England should name an unchanged team.

This will be the final England match featuring David Willey, who will retire from international Cricket after the World Cup. Willey has been one of England’s better players this tournament and, like many left-arm pacers, has enjoyed substantial success on these Indian pitches. Consider backing Willey to go out on a high with over 1.5 wickets (2.20), particularly with Pakistan expected to bat extremely aggressively from ball one due to their net-run-rate requirements.

Adil Rashid has been another reliable performer with the ball, and his 3/54 against the Netherlands was the fifth time in his last six appearances in which Rashid’s spin has accounted for over 1.5 opposition wickets. Back the same outcome here (1.83) and also back the experienced Rashid to finish this game as England’s top bowler (3.25), as he should profit from Pakistan looking to send him to the boundary at every opportunity.

Dawid Malan once again showed his quality at the top of the order on Wednesday, scoring 87 before being run out for the first time in his England ODI career. Malan has now racked up consecutive 50+ scores and 137 runs across his last two innings. The shrewd move in this game would be backing Malan to score 30+ runs (1.72) with a smaller stake on him scoring 50+ runs (2.50) via the ‘Batter Milestones’ market for a potentially higher profit.

BETTING ANALYSIS For PAKISTAN

Despite having won their last two group games, New Zealand’s five-wicket victory over Sri Lanka on Thursday, which saw them chase down 172 in just 23.2 overs, leaves Pakistan needing an extraordinary result to reach the semi-finals. If Babar Azam’s side bats first in this match, they’ll need to beat England by 287 runs or more, but if they lose the toss and are asked to bowl first, it will be impossible unless they were to bowl England out for a miserly score of 50 or less and chase it down within a couple of overs.

It’s important for bettors to keep these scenarios in mind before making any plays. Assuming Pakistan bats first, they are certain to throw caution to the wind and bat with an ultra-offensive mindset in a bid to make a monstrous score. This does suit opener Fakhar Zaman, who is a naturally aggressive batter and coming off the back of a brilliant 126 not out from 81 balls against New Zealand, which followed his 81 vs Bangladesh. Fakhar struck 18 sixes over the course of those two innings, so back him not only to hit over 0.5 match sixes (2.00) but also to record the most match sixes (6.50) over the course of this game.

A number of Pakistan bowlers offer good investment value, not least two of their key pacers. Shaheen Shah Afridi’s left-arm rockets will pose a huge threat to England’s top order, with the 23-year-old averaging two wickets per game across the tournament so far. Mohammad Wasim, meanwhile, is in very good form, having recorded figures of 3/60 and 3/31 across his last two appearances. Back both Shaheen (1.83) and Wasim (2.10) to gain over 1.5 wickets against England.

CRICKET 8’S EXPERT PREDICTION

Pakistan’s only focus will be on trying to beat England by the margins required for them to leapfrog New Zealand and make it into the semi-finals of this competition until it is mathematically impossible for them to do so. The worry for Pakistan is that this may force a number of them to change the way they play, particularly with the bat, should they be batting first. Having to score a minimum of 350 runs to have even a glimmer of a chance means if England takes early wickets, then Pakistan will be in danger of subsiding.

England, meanwhile, are under significantly less pressure, which should play to their favour. They can focus on their own game and perform to the best of their respective abilities. Jos Buttler’s side boasts an excellent record over Pakistan in 50-over cricket over the past few years and will want to finish what has been a terrible World Cup defence on a high. Therefore, backing them to win in Kolkata looks like a smart move.

TIP

ENGLAND TO WIN (1.90)

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