UFC Vegas 81: Yusuff vs Barboza – 10.14.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 81: Yusuff vs Barboza. Fights are back at the UFC Apex tonight after a solid slate of action last Saturday. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 254-161-4 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
• Nick: 266-149-4 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-13-2023 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Emily Ducote -400 vs Ashley Yoder +300

• Anthony: Today’s card begins with a women’s strawweight bout between Ashley Yoder and Emily Ducote. This is not a very high-level fight but it seems warranted that Ducote is a heavy favorite. Yoder has not fought since 2021. She is 1-4 in her last five appearances and a career .500 as a professional. Another loss would certainly mean the end of her UFC tenure and I believe her to be up against it facing a higher quality opponent like Ducote. Yoder has an edge here in terms of her height and reach, although I find it hard to believe she effectively utilizes it. Her only path to victory would be winning a fight on points against the shorter and more stocky Ducote. I anticipate Ducote pressuring forward and utilizing her grappling to win this bout. She should easily control Yoder in periods along the cage, and I expect her to land the more meaningful shots overall. Emily Ducote by Decision
• Nick: This is a lower level match-up between two fighters I don’t expect to climb the rankings at strawweight. Ducote is an effective striker with surprising power for her frame. She is coming off back to back losses to Lupita Godinez and Angela Hill, but she’s getting a more winnable match-up here against an aging vet in Ashley Yoder. Ducote lands more than six significant strikes per minute, but she absorbs more than eight. Her striking defense has been an issue when fighting at the top level, but it’s expected she’s going to continue to show improvement in her technical abilities as she’s still only 29-years old. Ashley Yoder has a lot of UFC experience, but she has struggled to build any sort of momentum. Like Ducote, she is coming off back-to-back losses, and she has been out of action since July of 2021. Yoder is fairly well-rounded, but at 35-years old her career certainly seems to be on a downturn. She could have a slight grappling advantage if this fight hits the mat, but I’m not confident in her ability to take it there as Ducote has a 90% takedown defense in the UFC. The line is wide here given Yoder’s experience advantage, but Ducote is the rightful favorite. She should dominate on the feet in this one. Emily Ducote by Round Three KO

Chris Gutierrez -280 vs Alatengheili +225

• Anthony: Next is a bantamweight fight between Chris Gutierrez and Alatengheili. Initial booking had Alatengheili facing Rani Yahya and Gutierrez going up against Montel Jackson. Gutierrez presents a much tougher stylistic test for Alatengheili when compared to Yahya. He has crisp hands, punishing leg kicks and a very intelligent jab. The Mongolian Knight is comfortable grappling but also exchanging blows on the feet. I believe Alatengheili will struggle kickboxing Gutierrez due to his volume and high rate of accuracy. Gutierrez not only lands nearly two more strikes per minute, but he also absorbs far less damage than Alatengheili. I could see Gutierrez winning by finish here, either by overwhelming his opponent or landing a single clean shot. We have seen Alatengheili knocked out on three prior occasions. He is not the most durable and stands too flat footed to evade opponent attacks. I expect Gutierrez to bounce back here after losing in his most recent octagon appearance. These odds have gotten quite wide but he seems like a safe bet to win. Chris Gutierrez by Round Two KO
• Nick: Alatengheili is 4-1-1 in the UFC, fighting out of an excellent camp in Fight Ready under Santino Defranco and Eddie Cha. He’s well-rounded with surprising power for his frame, and he continues to show improvement in his grappling abilities everytime we see him fight. He’s taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Montel Jackson. As impressive as he’s been, there is really no denying this represents a major step up in competition for him here on short notice.  Chris Gutierrez’s greatest strength is certainly his ability to throw devastating leg kicks. More than 50% of the strikes he’s thrown in the UFC are leg kicks and he’s shown he can utilize this attack effectively against a wide range of opponents. He is 7-1-1 across his last nine fights, coming off a hard fought decision loss to a high-level opponent in Pedro Munhoz. Gutierrez is overly hesitant at times and his takedown defense is more of a weakness than a strength. Still, he’s a gifted striker offensively, both countering or moving forward. He has notable wins over Batgerel Danaa and Frankie Edgar and while the line feels wider than it should be, he is the rightful favorite. This should be a volatile match-up early as Alatengheili has legitimate power, but I expect Gutierrez to lean on a kick heavy game plan to keep things at range until he can pull away. Chris Gutierrez by Decision

Melissa Dixon -150 vs Irina Alekseeva +125

• Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight matchup with Melissa Dixon taking on Irina Alekseeva. I do not hold either one of these athletes in high regard, both with a mere five professional wins at the ages of 32 and 33 respectively. Alekseeva is thus far 1-0 in the UFC after securing a win by kneebar against Stephanie Egger this year. Alekseeva did miss weight for that contest but paid off as a huge underdog in that spot. The nickname Russian Ronda is a nod to Alekseeva’s grappling, an area she does have a clear edge over Dixon if these two do engage there. She does well maintaining top control in most instances and threatening submissions even when she begins to lose position. There will be periods of this fight on the feet as well where really it is anyone’s to be won. Dixon is an aggressive striker who hits as hard as Alekseeva, but both girls seem to lack awareness in terms of their defensive posture. I could see either getting knocked down here in close exchanges although neither is likely to pull away in a fight that goes a full three rounds on the feet. This is not at all a confident pick but Alekseeva seems like the better side here at plus money. I lean her way given the wins on her resume and slight edge if and when this bout hits the mat. Irina Alekseeva by Decision
• Nick: Irinia Alekseeva is coming off an impressive UFC debut win, in which she submitted Stephanie Egger via kneebar early in the first round. She is 5-1 professionally, but prior to the start of her MMA career she had a successful run as a credentialed judoka. Her striking abilities seem far from refined, but she is big for the division and it seems she’s more aggressive than a lot of other women on the roster. Melissa Dixon will be making her UFC debut here, having most recently fought for a solid regional promotion in Ares FC. She is 5-0 professionally, with three of those wins coming via KO. She is mostly  As impressive as Dixon has been, she really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Additionally, at 32-years old it does seem she’s getting a late start to her professional career. This is a low level match-up and a difficult fight to call, so I’ll reluctantly back the underdog. I don’t have much faith in either of these women as prospects, but we have seen Alekseeva secure a UFC level win and I do expect she’ll be the aggressor early here. Dixon could have a slight wrestling advantage and he’s a more technically sound striker, but I think she could end up overpowered in this one. Irina Alekseeva by Round Two Submission

Terrance McKinney -550 vs Brendan Marotte +400

• Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight between Terrance McKinney and newcomer Brendan Marotte. After originally being slated to face Chris Duncan, McKinney now draws into the 26 year old Marotte. This is a fighter from the New England regional circuit lacking much high level experience. He has been fighting professionally since 2018 but only more recently got back into competition, winning two fights this year. While his performances have been dominant, they are coming against very lackluster competition. He appears far too green for the UFC with suspect striking defense and a tendency to drop his hands. McKinney has plenty of his own flaws but it makes sense that he is a massive favorite in this spot. Although McKinney is very reckless whenever the cage door locks, he seems to have little issue mowing through more suspect opponents. I am expecting him to slice through Marotte, as was the case facing Erick Gonzalez and most recently Mike Breeden. McKinney puts everything behind his punches and chases the finish very early on. He is one of the division’s hardest hitters. I predict a first round victory for T-Wrecks, either knocking out Marotte or grabbing a takedown and getting top control. Marotte seems tough but the first five minutes of this fight will certainly test his grit. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO
• Nick: Brendan Marotte will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for an injured Chris Duncan. He fights out of a solid camp via New England Cartel, but he has only found success against an extremely low level of competition. He has power on the feet and decent BJJ, but he really hasn’t been tested at all at this level. It’s a bit surprising to see him getting a chance here, as his most recent win came over an opponent with an 11-20 record. McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is 14-6 professionally and all of those wins have come inside the distance. He is 4-3 in the UFC, most recently coming off a first round KO of Mike Breeden.  In most of McKinney’s fights he pushes a ridiculous pace. He overwhelms most of his opponents early, but if he can’t find a quick finish he’s usually dominated late as his cardio/gas tank fails. If Marotte can survive the first round, I expect he could take over late and secure the upset. That being said, it seems far more likely than not that McKinney can take him out early here. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO

Tainara Lisboa -350 vs Ravena Oliveira +275

• Anthony: I am excited for this women’s bantamweight matchup between Tainara Lisboa and Ravena Oliveira. In her debut win over Jessica-Rose Clark, Lisboa proved to me that she can fight at this level. As a veteran of just eight professional fights there are quite a few unknowns surrounding Lisboa but all the skills are there in the making of a successful UFC run. Lisboa is a sniper on the outside with quick hands and a very dangerous attack in the clinch. Her muay thai hurts girls at this weight class and Lisboa is also rather efficient when fights hit the mat. She has finished bouts on multiple occasions before and while Lisboa is still relatively unproven, I like her chances against another green athlete like Oliveira. While it is true Oliveira is on a tidy win streak of her own, she is less technically skilled than her Brazilian counterpart. Her kickboxing comes with sloppy, looping attacks and a pace that is not always sustainable. Expect a clash early in this fight as both women look to get in close. I anticipate Lisboa landing counters on Oliveira and taking control when this fight hits the ground. Tainara Lisboa by Round Two Submission 
• Nick: Tainara Lisboa is coming off an impressive win in her UFC debut, via third round submission of Jessica-Rose Clark. She is 6-2 professionally and 32-years old.  Lisboa is a Muay Thai style striker, who works well in the clinch. Her BJJ has evolved into a major weapon for her as well, which was evident in her most recent win.over Clark. It seems likely she is entering her athletic prime. Ravena Oliveira will be making her UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as Darya Zheleznyakova was forced to pull out with an injury. She is 7-1-1 professionally, but only one of those wins has come over an opponent with a winning record. It’s very difficult to know what to expect from her here, but her regional film suggests she’s dangerous on the feet with six of her seven wins coming via KO. The line is too wide here as Oliveira is relatively unknown. Lisboa has been impressive recently, but Rose-Clark has since been cut from the UFC so it is difficult to gauge the weight of that win. That being said, I do expect Lisboa to secure another win in this spot. She should be technically superior wherever this one goes. Tainara Lisboa by Decision

TJ Brown -190 vs Darren Elkins +160

• Anthony: The featured bout is a featherweight matchup between Darren Elkins and TJ Brown. It is a compelling matchup facing the aged veteran Elkins against a less established fighter in Brown who needs a bounceback win. Elkins if for nothing else has always been known for his toughness and cardio. The Team Alpha Male product has also certainly realized success utilizing his wrestling, as is the case for his opponent today. Brown averages more than one takedown landed per round with a rate of accuracy at 55 percent. He is an effective striker from both stances and likely a step quicker than Elkins if these two are trading blows on the feet. I’d rather see Brown point fight against Elkins instead of burning out his gas tank trying to wrestle for three rounds. Elkins may warrant a live bet if this is to get into round three but I think it is largely a match dominated by Brown. Elkins is not what he used to be and although some recent showings have been solid, I expect this fight to mirror his last one against Jonathan Pearce. TJ Brown by Decision
• Nick: Elkins is an extremely tough and gritty veteran known as “The Damage” for his ability to take shots and keep moving forward. He is bloodied and bruised in almost all of his fights, regardless of whether or not he wins or loses. Elkins is decent offensively but he’s also extremely hittable. He is a technically gifted wrestler who does well in scrambles but there is no denying he’s on the downturn of his career. He was dominated his last time out, against a rising prospect in Jonathan Peace. However, his durability and toughness were fully on display in that fight and he even had strong offensive moments late in that third round. TJ Brown is fairly well-rounded, but he is extremely inconsistent.  He has sneaky power for a featherweight, but he takes a lot of damage in exchanges. Brown is primarily a grappler who averages just under four takedowns per fifteen minutes. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently coming off an ugly loss in which Bill Algeo submitted him in the second round. Elkins is tough to back at 39-years old, but I can’t deny the fact that if he can survive early he could weaponize his cardio and durability late. That being said, I do expect Brown’s strength and size to be a deciding factor here. The line feels a bit wide, but he should be the faster, stronger, and more powerful fighter in this match-up. Elkins is durable and can be dangerous late, but he seems a bit too far past his prime to pull this off. TJ Brown by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Christian Rodriguez -150 vs Cameron Saaiman +125

• Anthony: Opening the main card are bantamweights Christian Rodriguez and Cameron Saaiman. On Friday Rodriguez missed weight for what is now the third time, officially coming in four pounds heavy. At UFC 287 we saw Rodriguez beat Raul Rosas Jr. after weighing over the contracted limit. He keeps a very steady workrate which is certainly easier when not enduring as stressful a cut as his competitors. While intelligent and well-rounded I do not think Rodriguez has nearly the ceiling as a guy like Cameron Saaiman. The South American is undefeated with three UFC wins already to his credit. None of Saaiman’s performances have looked the most complete although he has shown some flashes of brilliance. Sure he is green, but at just 22 years old we will see him improve rapidly for the next half a decade. Saaiman has the better kickboxing in this matchup and longer weapons with which he can attack. Saaiman is also comfortable putting forth some offensive wrestling to keep his opponents constantly on the defensive. I do consider this a very close fight on paper but given that Saaiman is the slight underdog he is going to be the lean for me. Rodriguez may shine yet again off a missed weight cut but I believe Saaiman can keep distance in this bout and put forth better offensive numbers. Cameron Saaiman by Decision
• Nick: Cameron Saaiman is a highly regarded prospect, coming off three straight wins under the UFC banner. He’s only 22-years old, but he’s gifted athletically and surprisingly well-rounded for his age. He does a good job moving in and out of his opponents striking range. He wears damage well, has decent power, and it’s expected he’ll continue to show considerable improvement every time we see him fight.  He’s an effective wrestler who controls his weight well. It seems he mostly favors grappling for position, but it can be expected as his BJJ develops he’ll become more of a submission threat. Christian Rodriguez is certainly going to be the toughest test for Saaiman to date. Rodriguez is primarily a striker. He’s capable of utilizing a grappling heavy gameplan in certain match-ups, but he seems most comfortable exchanging on the feet. He has decent BJJ both offensively and defensively, which was evident in his most recent win over Raul Rosas Jr. Rosas Jr. is a highly regarded prospect with excellent grappling ability, but Rodriguez managed to survive dangerous positions early in that one and then weaponized his cardio as he dominated the second and third rounds. He is 9-1 professionally, and one of the more underrated prospects on the roster at bantamweight. Rodriguez missed weight by four pounds, but I actually see that as an advantage if he should choose to lean on his grappling ability. A tough fight to call, but I’m on Rodriguez to land the bigger strikes and lean on his grappling if he needs to. Christian Rodriguez by Round Two Submission

Michel Pereira -200 vs Andre Petroski +160

• Anthony: Next we have a matchup at middleweight between Michel Pereira and Andre Petroski. If not for the short notice nature of this bout I think Petroski would have a great chance at pulling off this upset. He stepped in on just ten days notice here after Pereira had originally been scheduled to fight Marc-Andre Barriault. For Pereira, this is a similar stylistic draw with both Petroski and Barriault implementing heavy forward pressure in their fights. The talented grappler Petroksi will look to ground Pereira here in hopes of securing some sort of submission. However, Pereira has defended 94 percent of takedowns since joining the UFC. This will be his first fight at 185 pounds but the Brazilian is certainly built well and strong enough to keep most opposing grapplers off of him. His offensive jiu jitsu is not bad but Pereira would be wise to keep this fight standing for every second that he can. Petroski has put together a nice resume but the level of competition has not been the highest. Pereira should have the strength to chuck Petroski off of him in a large number of the clinch positions I anticipate. He is better on the break than Petroski and certainly the most dangerous striker at range. I also will be staying away from Petroski here due to the sketchy nature of his most recent performance. Seeing him trade shots with Gerald Meershaert in Boston has me hesitant of his striking defense and cardiovascular endurance. I cannot imagine his gas tank looks much improved here on an abbreviated fight camp. Michel Pereira by Round Three KO
• Nick: Michel Pereira is like a video game character in the way he flips around the ring. He’s one of the most entertaining fighters to watch, but his Fight IQ is always in question. He likes to throw ridiculous looking spinning kicks and he’s been known to backflip onto his opponents for pretty much no reason. This can put an unnecessary dent in his gas tank, but he does have strong striking ability and he has shown a solid chin against decent competition. He is now on an impressive five-fight win streak, but he is moving up to middleweight after missing weight in July when he was supposed to fight Stephen Thompson at 170 pounds. Petroski is a decorated collegiate level wrestler who mostly leans on his powerful grappling to overwhelm and discourage his opponents. He has shown KO power on the regional scene, but he telegraphs his strikes which means in most matchups he’s best suited to lean on his grappling ability. He is 4-0 since joining the UFC, most recently securing an impressive decision win over a tough out in Gerald Meerschaert. He took a lot of damage in that fight and his cardio was fading late, but he did enough to secure the win via narrow split decision. Petroski is taking this fight on less than two weeks’ notice as Marc-Andre Barriault was forced to withdraw with an injury. I expect he could pull off an upset here if he had a full fight camp, but this is a dangerous fight for him to take on short notice. I expect if Pereira is taken down he can work his way back to his feet where he should have a massive striking advantage. Michel Pereira by Round Two KO

Jonathan Martinez -110 vs Adrian Yanez -110

• Anthony: The featured bout comes at bantamweight with Adrian Yanez taking on Jonathan Martinez. This has the makings of an incredible fight with two talented strikers going head-to-head. Yanez makes the walk after suffering his first UFC loss against Rob Font this spring. I was upset seeing him caught in that fight but not at all surprised. Yanez lands 6.75 significant strikes per minute while absorbing nearly the same. His aggressive style left him vulnerable to counters, as was the case against both Font and Davey Grant. I believe hand speed and power give him the slightest edge over Martinez in this spot. Martinez is a crafty southpaw striker but not nearly as quick to the target. He is more methodical in his approach compared to Yanez. While he will likely put forth the better attacks to the body and legs, I anticipate Yanez scoring a knockdown or accruing more damage over three rounds. He is somebody that I will be betting here at near even odds. Hopefully we see an improved version of Yanez coming off a loss and extended break from action. Adrian Yanez by Decision
• Nick: Adrian Yanez is a very technical boxer who throws sharp and effective combos better than many of the more experienced fighters in this division. He does a good job using combos to set up his power shots, and his advanced boxing instincts at a young age have a lot of people already comparing him to Jorge Masvidal. Similar to Masvidal, he does a good job throwing feints and leading his opponents into traps. All of the strikes he throws are meaningful. Yanez is coming off an ugly KO loss to Rob Font, but there is no denying the fact Font is one of the best pure strikers in the division. Yanez was overaggressive in that spot and was put down by a counter right hook. Martinez is fairly well rounded, but mostly excels on the feet. He’s a traditional boxer with solid head movement and footwork. He throws meaningful strikes and he does an excellent job mixing up his combinations to keep his opponents guessing. He is excellent at striking heavily out of breaks and he’s shown sneaky power in spite of his wiry frame. Martinez enters this fight on a five fight win streak, with notable wins over Said Nurmagomedov and Cub Swanson. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call as both of these guys are outstanding strikers. Martinez should have success kicking at range, but I expect Yanez can close distance where his superior boxing should shine through. A low confidence play, but I see Yanez getting back in the win column. Adrian Yanez by Decision

Jennifer Maia -155 vs Viviane Araujo +130

• Anthony: The co-main event is a women’s flyweight bout between Jennifer Maia and Viviane Araujo. This is not the most compelling matchup despite both athletes sitting inside the division’s top fifteen. Maia has been a staple of this class for quite some time, making her 12th walk to the octagon today. She is a bit steadier compared to Araujo which likely is the cause for the current betting odds. Not only does she have a slight edge over Araujo striking but also on the optics of her fights. She has won UFC bouts in the past even while being outstruck by her opponents. Somebody like Araujo that tends to throw in short bursts will find themselves behind the eight ball in this style matchup. Araujo may attempt to get Maia to the mat but I do not imagine she finds prolonged success there against the Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt. It will likely be a fight that goes to decision but I find it hard to imagine Araujo convincingly winning two rounds. Maia should fight conservatively per usual and put forth a better defensive gameplan than Araujo opposite her. Jennifer Maia by Decision
• Nick: Maia was completely outclassed when she took on the champion Valentina Shevchenko, but she did have a few positive moments and she even stole a round as a +1000 underdog. While she lost convincingly, she did look a lot better in that match-up than anyone really expected. She is 3-2 since that title fight, coming off a convincing decision win over a highly regarded prospect in Casey O’Neill. Araujo should have a power advantage here. Her strikes are explosive, she has an excellent front kick and throws powerful combinations. She works well behind her jab and her footwork is advanced. She is a talented offensive grappler as a BJJ black belt, but she doesn’t really have the wrestling base or takedown ability to get the fight to the mat consistently. I could certainly see this one going either way, but I do see Maia as the rightful favorite. She is the more defensively sound striker and I expect her to push the pace here. Jennifer Maia by Decision

Sodiq Yusuff -165 vs Edson Barboza +140

• Anthony: The main event is a good one at featherweight between Sodiq Yusuff and Edson Barboza. It has been more than a year since Yusuff’s last fight, recovering from a back injury and now ready to establish himself in this division’s top fifteen. He is a very polished fighter, accruing a record of 6-1 in the UFC and giving great work to some high level opponents. I like his ability to throw with volume despite a smaller and more compact frame for the division. His combinations are a bit like the champion Volkanovski’s, mixing in power shots whilst attacking all levels of his opponent. Yusuff will do his best work in this fight at close range, stymying the longer distance weapons thrown by Barboza. It is tough to say who has the edge in a fight that goes the distance but I do consider Barboza the more likely to win by finish today. This guy is a veteran of 29 UFC fights with nine wins by finish since joining the promotion. Barboza is a tough puzzle to solve in any instance but he especially seems like a handful for someone as inactive as Yusuff. Barboza fought just a few months ago starching Billy Quarantillo with a perfectly timed knee. He is in the best physical shape of his life appearing to not have an ounce of fat on him. As the underdog I will be betting Barboza in what I expect to be a competitive bout. It is possible Edson can build an early lead in this match, landing kicks and hands on Yusuff before he is able to find his own rhythm. Edson Barboza by Round Two KO
• Nick: Sodiq Yusuff has outstanding Muay-Thai striking ability. He’s well rounded, but he’s absolutely most comfortable fighting on the feet as six of his thirteen professional wins have come via KO. He has outstanding power for this division, he is excellent in the clinch as he’s highly developed in his striking abilities. Yusuff lands more than five significant strikes per minute, and he absorbs just over 3.5. It will likely be difficult for him to maintain that striking differential here, against one of the more explosive and decorated strikers to ever fight at featherweight. Barboza does a good job using kicks to keep pressure on his opponents. He was an early adopter of the ever-popular leg-kick and he uses it more effectively than anyone on the roster. Barboza has an excellent job mixing in body work and setting up his punches with feints. He’s one of the best strikers in the UFC, with serious KO power in all of his limbs. Barboza has struggled at times, but usually only against grapplers. In a match-up like this where the fight should take place standing, there is massive value on him as an underdog. I don’t want to overinvest here as Barboza does seem a bit past his prime. That being said, he should still have technical advantages on the feet. I expect he can use leg kicks to take away some of Yusuff’s power. Again, a low confidence play, but I like Barboza to find a KO after weathering some early damage. Edson Barboza by Round Three KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.comu

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