UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs Green – 10.7.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

   Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs Green. Fights are back at the UFC Apex this Saturday night after a break from action last weekend. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

   As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 249-156-4 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
• Nick: 261-144-4 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-6-2023 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Montana De La Rosa -145 vs JJ Aldrich +120

• Anthony: The card begins with a women’s flyweight contest between JJ Aldrich and Montana De La Rosa. It is not the most exciting of bouts to start the night but I do think there is money to be made backing De La Rosa as she fights back into the win column. While she did suffer losses in her past two bouts, there is no shame in falling short against top challengers like Maycee Barber and Tatiana Suarez. Aldrich is a less skilled draw, relying heavily on grit and activity to win the fights that she can. Her 12-6 record is lackluster but the same can be said for the 12-8 favorite. De La Rosa will look to implement her grappling in this spot and I expect Aldrich to be a bit vulnerable in terms of those takedowns. She has struggled in the past fighting out of bottom position or taking several minutes to eventually get back to her feet. I think De La Rosa can rely on her wrestling here to chain together takedowns and convincingly win the fight. I am not expecting much from either of these women on the feet. Although Aldrich is a bit more reliable a boxer, there is not a massive divide between these two while striking. Montana De La Rosa by Decision 
• Nick: Montana De La Rosa is a well-rounded fighter who has shown serious improvements since making her debut. That being said, there’s really nothing about her game that suggests she’s ever going to contend for a title. She has above average wrestling ability and she thrives against inferior grapplers. However, her striking is still far from technical and she takes a lot of damage in most of her fights. Aldrich has solid technical ability on the feet, but she’s had trouble in the past against bigger, more aggressive opponents. Aldrich is 12-6 professionally, most recently coming off a dominant win via ground-and-pound KO over a low level opponent in Na Liang. She carries momentum into this match-up, but I still expect De La Rosa to reveal herself as the rightful favorite. The gap in grappling ability is much wider than the gap in striking ability here. I expect De La Rosa to secure takedowns as often as she needs to on her way to a convincing decision win. Montana De La Rosa by Decision

Aoriqileng -110 vs Johnny Munoz Jr -110

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at bantamweight between Johnny Munoz Jr and Aoriqileng. This is a very compelling bout with odds staying at pick em for all of fight week. I am never in a rush to bet either one of these guys at the window and now being 2-3 in the UFC, Aoriqileng is somebody I would consider a fade. While the man is a very talented martial artist I am not a fan of his fight style or the resume built prior to signing with the promotion. It is always impressive to have 35 professional fights but I do not like seeing Aoriqileng having so many losses on his ledger. Munoz is not spectacular either but I do expect him to have the edge here in a standup affair. The stance of Aoriqileng makes him easy to read, often loading up on attacks and leaving himself exposed when resetting the hands. Another quarrel I have with Aoriqileng is a tendency to headhunt rather than attacking the legs and body. Munoz is at least a bit more diverse with his attacks and in general the more scrappy. I think he will be more interested in making this a fight, compared to Aoriqileng who prefers a cleaner, kickboxing match. While I do believe this is a very tough fight to call my money will be on Johnny Munoz. Johnny Munoz Jr by Decision
• Nick: Aoriqileng is extremely aggressive, but when he faces highly technical strikers he sometimes puts himself in danger overexerting himself in exchanges and leaving himself open to counter shots. He throws a lot of volume, landing more than six significant strikes per minute. However, he also absorbs more than seven significant strikes per minute. He’s a kill or be killed type of fighter and his grappling is below average for the division. Munoz Jr. is a highly decorated BJJ black belt, with seven of his twelve professional wins coming via submission. He has a powerful and effective kicking game, but he seems to struggle to string together significant combos. Most of his striking comes at low volume, but he uses it well to set up his grappling. Aoriqileng is going to have the technical advantage on the feet here, and Munoz Jr. will have the advantage on the mat. This is one of the more difficult fights on the card to call, but I expect Munoz Jr. to score enough takedowns to pull away here late. Johnny Munoz Jr by Decision

Kanako Murata -355 vs Vanessa Demopoulos +280

• Anthony: This should be a good women’s strawweight fight with Kanako Murata taking on Vanessa Demopoulos. Murata is a talented fighter with great top pressure, landing four of nine attempted takedowns in her UFC debut. She lost her last UFC appearance in a fight against Virna Jandiroba that saw her fail on her single attempted shot. Murata’s striking is rudimentary and it appears grappling with be her path to victory in most bouts that she takes. Not testing herself against a jiu jitsu ace like Jandiroba does demonstrate solid Fight IQ, but also a lack of confidence. Demopoulos will be an easier fighter to takedown and control if that is the game plan but Murata will not be able to slice through her easily on the ground either. I very much like the activity from Demopoulos and the general vigor she fights with. While she is warranted as the underdog in this particular matchup I find it hard to believe she is as wide as +280. I am betting her here, expecting this fight to be partially contested standing where I give Demopoulos the slight edge. Vanessa Demopoulos by Decision
• Nick: Kanako Murata is an Olympic level wrestler who is capable enough to hang on her feet against most opponents. In terms of traditional wrestling, she should be able to compete with anyone in the division. She has been out of action since June of 2021. following an arm injury in her loss to Virna Jandiroba, but at 30 years-old it is safe to expect she’s made considerable technical improvements in her time away from competition. Demopoulos was recently awarded her BJJ black belt. She has a powerful wrestling base, showing enough ability to score takedowns against lower level opponents. She can be an effective striker, but her defense is questionable at best. She eats a lot of shots against higher-volume strikers, and offensively she often leaves herself open to counter shots. This one could certainly go either way, but I find myself siding with Murata. Demopoulos is live for an upset via submission, but otherwise Murata should have her covered no matter where this one goes. I expect a wrestling-heavy gameplan out of Murata here as she stays out of danger enough to get back in the win column. Kanako Murata by Decision

Mateus Mendonca -250 vs Nate Maness +200

• Anthony: Next is a fight at flyweight between Nate Maness and Mateus Mendonca. The UFC debut did not go Mendonca’s way but he did fare a bit better than expected against Javid Basharat. I do like a lot of what I’ve seen from Mendonca. He is another young athlete from Chute Box Diego Lima, moving forward with great pressure and odd angle attacks. His muay thai is excellent and I see him having a distinct advantage over the feet against Maness. One would think that such an aggressive style leaves Mendonca susceptible to gassing or getting clipped, but his attacks are measured and strung together well. I could see Maness fairing well in the latter half of this fight but I do not expect it to go very long as both men tend to be potent finishers. The pick for me is Mendonca as he is the more explosive athlete but this is certainly a sketchy spot. Maness has pulled off bigger upsets than this as a sizable underdog. Mateus Mendonca by Round One KO
• Nick: Mendonca is extremely aggressive, fighting out of a camp that promotes that style via Chute Boxe in Brazil. He is coming off his first career loss in his UFC debut, falling via decision to an extremely tough opponent in Javid Basharat. While it’s true he lost that fight, he took it on short notice and moved up a weight class to take on a highly touted prospect in Basharat. Returning to flyweight for this match-up, Mendoca is in a much more favorable match-up against a fighter in Nate Maness who is coming off back-to-back losses. Nate Maness has a strong right hook, but he often telegraphs it to his opponents, making it easy to duck and defend. Maness has found a lot of success via his toughness and durability. However, against top competition he finds himself outclassed both on the mat and in striking exchanges. His recent losses have come to high level competition, but he’s had trouble making weight and it seems cutting down to 125 has been wearing on his strength and durability. The line does feel too wide here, but I do see Mendoca as the rightful favorite. He’s more aggressive and durable than Maness and I expect he can dictate the pace in this matchup. Mateus Mendonca by Round Two KO

Karolina Kowalkiewicz -155 vs Diana Belbita +130

• Anthony: The next fight involves women strawweights Diana Belbita and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Both women enter with an identical record of 15-7 as professionals. Kowalkiewicz is ten years the senior of Belbita but far more experienced, facing higher quality opponents over the previous decade. She is small when compared to Belbita but not necessarily undersized. Kowalkiewicz should connect with her hands more often than Belbita finds herself able. Not only does Kowalkiewicz have an edge in speed but also in terms of distance management. Belbita is not very dynamic on the feet and while her striking is sharp, she does not present challenges like Karolina can by pressuring opponents or scoring points on the cage. Neither does attack low all that often but the better body work in this fight likely lands on Belbita. I see her slowing down as this bout progresses and Kowalkiewicz starts to drive her striking totals upwards. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision
• Nick: Kowalkiewicz is sharp on his feet. She pushes a serious pace and does a good job stringing together effective combinations. She has shown improvements in her grappling abilities over the years. Most recently on the defensive end, in a convincing decision win over Vanessa Demopoulos. Kowalkiewicz lands more than five significant strikes per minute, but she tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. When Diana Belbita is at her best, she works well behind her jab and uses it to set up straight shots. She’s relatively well-rounded with six of her fourteen professional wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. Belbita averages more than six significant strikes landed per minute, but she absorbs six per minute as well. This should be a fun and competitive fight on the feet, but I expect Kowalkiewicz to be the better grappler by a decent margin. If she can secure a takedown in each round, she should cruise to a decision. My confidence is also boosted by the fact Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision

Ion Cutelaba -135 vs Phillipe Lins +115

• Anthony: The featured prelim is a showdown at light heavyweight between Ion Cutelaba and Philipe Lins. I have struggled for a while picking this fight given the volatility of both athletes. Lins will finally get some respect from me after now winning three straight bouts. I never rated the Brazilian’s skills all that highly but it is clear there have been improvements in his boxing and overall comfort fighting on this stage. He is certainly bigger than most 205ers and enjoying a slight reach edge over Cutelaba here today. We should get a car crash right as this bout begins with Cutelaba rushing to close the distance. He will likely test the takedown defense of Lins in this spot which has thus far been perfect through five showings in the UFC. I am not convinced that Cutelaba gets down Lins but I do think the early pressure from Ion makes this into a short fight. Lins will be forced to throw offense and lower his hands, causing me to expect a knockout one way or another. Cutelaba has more quick fights on his resume and I’d expect him to have a small edge if that is the style fight we see play out. It is not at all a confident pick. Ion Cutelaba by Round One KO
• Nick: Phillipe Lins entered the UFC as a highly regarded heavyweight prospect. He is a former PFL Champion at heavyweight. He won that title against a low level of competition, so it’s no surprise he’s now fighting at 205 lbs at the UFC level. Nine of Lins’ sixteen professional wins have come via KO. He’s coming off a solid decision win over Maxim Grishin and he’s on a three fight win streak for the first time since he won the PFL title in 2018. Cutelaba is going to come out firing here, he always does. He’s hyper aggressive with serious power and explosiveness on the feet. He’s an underrated grappler as a lifelong Greco Roman Wrestler, but he doesn’t seem to lean on that part of his game much in the majority of his fights. The likely reason for this is that his cardio is mediocre at best. He almost always seems to fade as his fights wear on and if he can’t find a KO win early he can find himself in serious trouble. This is a volatile match-up as both of these fighters are potent finishers. This feels close to a coinflip, but I do find myself siding with Cutelaba. Lins’ recent win streak has come against conservative and measured opponents. Cutelaba is anything but that. If he can’t find a quick finish he’ll be in trouble, but I do expect he will. Ion Cutelaba by Round One KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Alexander Hernandez -120 vs Bill Algeo +100

• Anthony: The main card opens with a great featherweight contest between Bill Algeo and Alexander Hernandez. After opening a slight favorite in the bout, Algeo will likely close as the underdog here today. I was prepared to bet him as high as -150 if needed. This fight feels like his although Hernandez is of course dangerous. Algeo put together a great showing four months ago against TJ Brown and now faces an opponent similar in his stature and stance. Landing 5.93 significant strikes per minute makes Algeo a problem to deal with as the shots seem to never stop coming. He will use his length to pump out offense against Hernandez and methodically break him down over rounds number two and three. Hernandez is explosive and powerful, but it will be tough to catch Algeo outside of round one. Algeo has never once been knocked out and I find his Fight IQ much higher than that of his opponent. Given the favorable draw and great price tag I do consider Algeo one of my favorite bets on the card. There are not many other plays on the board I’d take at even money. Bill Algeo by Round Three KO
• Nick: Algeo’s striking looks solid offensively, but he often seems to leave himself open to counter-shots. He has a long frame, but he doesn’t fully utilize his reach advantage as he throws a lot of crosses and looping hooks. He puts together effective combos, but he often leaves his hands down too low against good counter punchers. Algeo has underrated offensive grappling as a BJJ black belt, but at times he spends too much time on his back chasing submissions. He’s certainly capable of fighting at a very high-level, but at 34-years old there is a chance we start to see a decline in his speed and durability. He’s very dangerous offensively, but his aggressive style makes him difficult to back in a match-up of a potent finisher like Hernandez. Alexander Hernandez was once considered a future top contender. He’s a powerful striker who is fairly well-rounded, but lately he seems to wait for fights to come to him. He returned to a more aggressive style in December of 2022 against BIlly Quarantillo, but when he didn’t find a finish he faded quickly and was ultimately KO’d in the second round. Hernandez has KO power on the feet, he’s a decent defensive grappler but his constant movement and aggressive style often leaves him tired and vulnerable in later rounds. His cardio did seem to improve in his most recent fight, a win over Jim Miller via decision. This improvement is likely attributed to his training at high elevation in Denver for Factory X. This should be a very competitive fight in which I expect Herndandez to be dangerous early. However, Algeo has proven to be the more durable fighter with the much better gas tank. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll back Algeo to weather that early storm until he takes over late. Bill Algeo by Round Three Submission

Drew Dober -400 vs Ricky Glenn +300

• Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Drew Dober and Ricky Glenn. Despite being finished in his previous appearance, Dober is a sizeable favorite here this evening. Matt Frevola knocked out Dober for the first time ever back in May. The 34 year olds stock does drop quite a bit with that defeat but I still feel confident taking him against the likes of Ricky Glenn. The only win for Glenn in the past five years came against an aged Joaquim Silva. He is not as dynamic as he once was and Glenn, similar to Dober, suffered a KO loss in his last fight. I predicted Christos Giagos over Glenn as the underdog and cashed a nice ticket during that event. Dober should land the heavier shots on Glenn here, unloading to the body and head from that southpaw stance. Dober fights with aggressive intent and a very sustainable style for three rounds. I think most lightweights outside of the top fifteen can’t beat him, so Glenn would of course be included in that group. Drew Dober by Round One KO
• Nick: Drew Dober throws extremely powerful and precise strikes, his timing is excellent offensively, and the power in his counters make him a threat against almost anyone on the feet. Dober is coming off the first KO loss of his career, in a fight with Matt Frevola back in May. He was overaggressive in that fight, leaning into a wild and irresponsible exchange. However, prior to that he was coming off three straight wins via KO over relatively tough competition. Ricky Glenn has underrated power in his strikes, with eleven of his twenty-two professional wins coming by way of KO. He is coming off a brutal KO loss to Christos Giagos, falling to 1-2-1 across his last four fights. Glenn has been fighting professionally since 2006, so at 34-years old it’s safe to expect his career may be winding to a close. Dober should have technical advantages everywhere in this match-up, but Glenn does have true one shot KO power. The line feels a bit wide as Dober is often overly eager to exchange against power punchers, but I expect he’ll be more defensively sound this time around as he’s coming off an ugly loss. I expect Dober to find Glenn’s chin in one of the first two rounds. Drew Dober by Round Two KO

Joaquin Buckley -170 vs Alex Morono +145

• Anthony: The featured bout is a showdown at welterweight between Alex Morono and Joaquin Buckley. This should be a very fun matchup regardless of the outcome we see. Buckley is a very explosive athlete with serious power fighting at 170 pounds. His knockout of Andre Fialho this past spring marked his 12th KO in professional competition. Not only does he have heavy hands but great kicks that get up quickly and often connect on opponents flush. Buckley is durable but his energy does tend to fade quickly as fights go late. Morno is by no means a cardio machine but he is far more steady than Buckley over the course of a fifteen minute bout. Morono marches forward with consistent volume and a much better understanding of angles than Buckley. His footwork is superior and with Buckley in the southpaw stance I see a lot of shots landing clean for The Great White in this spot. He is a very live underdog if able to fade the early storm coming at him. Crowding the pocket against Buckley is scary but Morono may also nullify his kicks by doing so. Morono is also a capable grappler who could win minutes of this fight by taking Buckley down. I’ll take a stab as he closes around +145. Alex Morono by Decision
• Nick: In spite of his recent inconsistencies, it seems the UFC is still behind the marketing and promotion of Joaquin Buckley. He’s far from a developed talent, but his knockout ability makes him an easy sell. His spinning wheel-kick KO of Impa Kasanganay was the knockout of the year in 2020. He’s still developing the majority of his skills, but at just 29-years old he should continue to improve. Buckley has tremendous power and he can truly end a fight in any moment. That being said, he seems overly hesitant at times, he is fairly predictable as a striker as he telegraphs most of his shots. Buckley is coming off a solid win via KO of Andre Fialho at 170 pounds, and this match-up with Morono represents just his second appearance for the UFC in this weight class. Morono is a well rounded fighter, but his greatest strengths are likely his sheer grit and toughness. He always moves forward, even when he’s taking damage. He has solid cardio, underrated power, and he’s well-versed on the mat as a BJJ black belt. Morono is a coach at Fortis MMA, and he has one of the better minds for the sport at welterweight. He’s most recently coming off an impressive win via Guillotine Choke over Tim Means, and he has now won five of his last six fights. Morono is the sharper fighter in terms of technical ability here, but Buckley will be the stronger and much more explosive fighter in this match-up. This is a low confidence play, but I do expect Buckley’s superior athleticism to allow him to find a finish before this one ends. He’s the more potent finisher on the feet, and I’m not confident Morono will be looking to grapple. Joaquin Buckley by Round Three KO

Joe Pyfer -400 vs Abdul Razak Alhassan +300

• Anthony: The co-main event comes at middleweight with Joe Pyfer taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan. The beginning of Pyfer’s UFC tenure has been promising after his viral win on Dana White’s Contender Series. He has thus far won by knockout against Alen Amedovski and Gerald Meershaert. Injuries have kept Pyfer quiet this year but now returning from elbow surgery he gets another favorable draw facing Abdul Razak Alhassan. On the feet Pyfer is the much quicker man and a much longer threat. He should have an edge over Alhassan while distance striking despite the power threat coming back at him. Alhassan is a powerful and dangerous kickboxer but not the most diverse or consistent in his offensive output. Pyer may also elect to grapple in this spot to fade the power of Alhassan all together. While Alhassan is a skilled judoka, his grappling skills are otherwise subpar. I think he will struggle on the mat in this spot facing a skilled jiu jitsu practitioner like Pyfer. -400 seems a bit pricey in a pure kickboxing match, but I will bet on Pyfer winning today with an expectation that some takedowns will eventually land. Joe Pyfer by Round Two KO
• Nick: Joe Pyfer fights out of an excellent camp in Renzo Gracie Philadelphia and he seems to be a personality the UFC hopes to feature and build moving forward. Pyfer is well-rounded, but his power certainly seems to be his greatest attribute. He is coming off back-to-back KO wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Alen Amedovski. Eight of his eleven professional wins have come via KO. Abdul Razak Alhassan is a physical specimen with massive power in his punches, All twelve of his professional wins have come via KO. He has a solid judo base and decent grappling ability, but his questionable cardio/conditioning has prevented him from leaning on that part of his game. I’m encouraged by Alhassan’s recent move to Elevation Fight Team, an excellent fight camp out of Denver. Training at a high elevation in thinner air should help improve his cardio moving forward. That being said, I do expect this will prove a difficult match-up for him stylistically. Pyfer uses his length well, and he’ll have a reach advantage here. Additionally, he’s the more dangerous grappler if this fight hits the mat. Alhassan is always live as an underdog given his ridiculous one shot power, but I expect Pyfer can stay a step ahead and outclass him until he finds a finish. Joe Pyfer by Round Two Submission

Grant Dawson -480 vs Bobby Green +360

• Anthony: The main event is a bout at lightweight between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green. This is a rather compelling clash in the division with the 20-1 Dawson continuing to build his name. He enters on an 11 fight unbeaten streak accruing three quality wins since the start of 2022. Not only has Dawson been winning but dominating strong grapplers the likes of Jared Gordon and Mark O Madsen. He will certainly have the edge over Green today when this fight does hit the mat. I expect Dawson to test Green’s takedown defense very early on in this fight despite the five round atmosphere. If this were to go the 25 minutes distance I think Dawson knows he will desperately need top position. A striking match would certainly favor Green who is the much more skilled boxer. Green is great at rolling with shots and making his opponents miss often. He is a step quicker than Dawson and certainly the more technically skilled on the feet. However, Green does lack power and Dawson is clearly the more likely of these two to win by finish today. I expect him to secure this victory by finish although it is certainly a more volatile fight than these odds do imply. Green has fought well as of late but I do not trust his wrestling facing this particular opponent. Dawson is a very tough draw stylistically for the longtime veteran. Grand Dawson by Round Three Submission
• Nick: Dawson’s striking continues to improve, but there’s really no denying that most of his success has come on the mat. He is 20-1-1 professionally, coming off impressive wins over Damir Ismagulov, Mark Madsen and Jared Gordon. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2016, and many expect he will continue to climb the rankings in a stacked lightweight division. Dawson has made dramatic improvements since he moved camps to the American Top Team. His cardio and striking have improved dramatically, which has led him to this match-up where he’ll be headlining for the first time against a craft vet in Bobby Green. Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights outstriking his opponents at boxing range. He throws a lot of volume with decent power on his shots, and he does a good job stringing together effective combinations. Green is certainly a quality boxer offensively, but he tends to keep his hands down more often than he should. He likes to talk to and taunt his opponents as he fights, which occasionally leaves him on the wrong end of dangerous exchanges. The line feels wide here as Green is the better striker in this match-up by a wide margin. That being said, Dawson should be able to find a lot of success on the mat as the far superior grappler. As long as he keeps this fight on the mat where he should, I expect him to dominate here. Whether by submission or ground-and-pound KO, I expect we see a finish fairly early. Grant Dawson by Round Two KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com

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