Well that was an exciting week 3.
We had some massive blowouts, some incredibly questionable coaching, and – most importantly – Taylor Swift was in attendance at the Chiefs game this past weekend. In case you somehow missed it, she attended the game in a box with Donna Kelce (the mother of NFL stars Travis and Jason), and Swift’s visit unsurprisingly coincided with Travis Kelce jersey sales spiking by 400% since her appearance at Arrowhead.
You can have your own thoughts about her and her music, but there is no doubting her draw is unlike anything we’ve seen in recent memory. Just rumours of her and Kelce being together is enough to entice millions of Swifties towards the NFL, and will also endear her to football fans across the league – conveniently just weeks before she releases a massive Era’s tour concert film. We might have to put up with the awful broadcaster puns for a few more weeks (like the oh so clever “the Bears scoresheet is a Blank Space” that we all saw on 19000000 twitter feeds this weekend), but both the NFL and Swift will benefit immensely from this partnership. I can’t wait to hear the future breakup song.
Now, onto this week’s on field happenings.
Notable Injuries
While this weekend’s injury report was a bit of a reprieve after the first 2 weeks of devastation, there were definitely still some notable injuries that will affect your Fantasy rosters.
Brandon Aiyuk missed the Thursday nighter in week 3, which gave Deebo Samuel all the leeway he needed to have an explosive performance with extra touches. It’s likely that the Niners were just looking to give Aiyuk extra rest on a short week, so expect him to be ready to go this weekend against the Cardinals.
The Packers held out some key starters against the Saints (Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, David Bakhtiari), and are playing on a short week in the Thursday nighter in a divisional matchup against the Detroit Lions. Jones seems the closest to being ready to play, and after 2 weeks of watching A.J. Dillon, the Packers will be more likely to rush him back as soon as possible. Watson has been ramping up his participation slowly, and it seems like the Packers are really willing to take a slow approach for their star receiver to make sure he’s healthy for the remainder of the season. He’ll be a gametime decision at best.
In the Monday Nighter snoozer, Joe Burrow suited up despite his lingering calf injury and reportedly didn’t have any setbacks after the team’s 1st victory of the season. He still doesn’t look as mobile as he should, and I feel like he’s struggling to plant that leg on his passes without hesitation. If the Bengals could have a redo, they probably would have sat him for the first few weeks of the season – especially considering their 0-2 start with him in the lineup. Burrow didn’t throw a touchdown, and threw his second interception of the season, but he threw for a season high 259 yards and finally got Ja’Marr Chase involved with a career high 12 catches for 141 yards. The Bengals are facing the Titans in week 4, and if Burrow is truly on the mend, he and Chase should be up for massive performances against a weak pass defense.
Derek Carr (QB) NO – Shoulder
When Carr went down in the Saints matchup against the Packers, it looked like a potential season ender as he was escorted off supporting his throwing shoulder. Surprisingly, Carr seems to have avoided a major injury with what’s now being called an AC sprain. Carr has been fine for the Saints thus far this season, but it’s highly unlikely that he was starting for you in most formats in fantasy. The Saints will get Alvin Kamara back this week from suspension, and will likely start gunslinger Jameis Winston at quarterback in a home matchup against the Bucs who are dealing with key injuries themselves in their defensive backfield. Look for Winston to throw as many interceptions as touchdowns as is his M.O., but there’s a real chance that Winston’s fearless passing approach might actually improve Chris Olave’s output this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) LV – Concussion
After the Raider’s loss to the Steelers on Sunday night, Garoppolo has now entered the league’s concussion protocol and is a 50/50 shot to play this weekend. Brian Hoyer is listed as the #2 QB on the depth chart, but rookie Aidan O’Connell was impressive during the preseason. Davante Adams exploded for 13 receptions on 20 targets and 2 touchdowns last week, proving that he can still perform at an exceptional level no matter who’s playing quarterback. Hunter Renfrow is almost an afterthought in this offense now with Adams stealing his underneath routes, so his fantasy impact shouldn’t change based on who suits up for the Raiders in week 4.
Mike Williams (WR) LAC – ACL Tear (Out For Season)
Mike Williams was looking like the star receiver the Chargers had envisioned to complement Keenan Allen coming off of a 13 target game in week 2. In week 3 against the Vikings, Williams managed 7 receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown (thrown by Keenan Allen) before unfortunately being carted off with a torn ACL. Williams has an extensive injury history, and at 28 years old, this torn ACL is devastating. The Chargers will be forced to elevate Joshua Palmer’s role in the offense, and hope that Quentin Johnston is ready for more snaps after a slow start to his rookie season. Justin Herbert remains one of the most accurate passers in the league, but without Williams for the rest of the season, the need for Ekeler to come back healthy is more important than ever.
Gus Edwards (RB) BAL – Concussion
Is there another team in the NFL that is more cursed at one position than the Baltimore Ravens at running back? Gus Edwards started week 3 as the clear lead back after Justice Hill was ruled out with turf toe, and was off to an excellent start, rushing 11 times for 51 yards before leaving with a concussion. His status is in doubt for this week’s matchup against the Browns, who’s defense has been dominant so far this season. If Edwards isn’t cleared in time, the Ravens will look to veterans Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake to lead the backfield.
Jonathan Mingo (WR) CAR – Concussion
Mingo has been off to a slow start this season and finished his week 3 matchup on the sidelines with fellow rookie Bryce Young after suffering a concussion against the Seattle Seahawks. Mingo caught 3 of 6 targets from Andy Dalton for 21 yards before the injury, but with only 8 catches on the season, he’s definitely a drop candidate if you were holding on hoping for a breakout.
Start Every Dolphin You Have
There’s an insane amount of fun facts that came from the Dolphins 70-20 destruction of the Sean Payton led Denver Broncos this past weekend, scoring the most points since 1966. After a performance like that, Sean Payton should be crafting Nathaniel Hackett an apology letter for calling his 1 year tenure in Denver the worst coaching performance he’s ever seen- at least Hackett got the defense to show up.
The Dolphins absolutely destroyed the Broncos from kickoff without even having star receiver Jaylen Waddle in the lineup. Rookie running back De’Von Achane is now the RB 5 after sitting out week 1 and only receiving 1 carry in week 2. He entered the week with 1 fantasy point. That’s how incredible his week was. Raheem Mostert has almost a 20 point lead as the RB1 after collecting 142 scrimmage yards and 4 touchdowns – and yet he wasn’t the highest scoring running back on his own team. Mostert and Achane scored the most fantasy points for a running back duo in NFL fantasy history. The downside is that Achane was only started in 0.6% of leagues this week. Check your waivers – he may be available in your league.
The Dolphins currently have the top 6 fastest ball carriers plays this season via NextGenStats with (1) Tyreek Hill 22.07 MPH, (2) De’Von Achane 21.93 MPH, (3) Tyreek Hill 21.66 MPH, (4) Raheem Mostert 21.62 MPH, (5) Tyreek Hill 21.52 MPH and (6) De’Von Achane 21.5MPH. This team was built for speed and they’re showing early on that defenses just cannot keep up with what they bring on offense.
Tua Tagovailoa is the current betting favorite to win the MVP this season, and while Tyreek Hill has slowed down since his week 1 explosion, he’s still on pace for over 2300 receiving yards this year.
The Dolphins racked up 726 yards on offense, shattering a record from the 1951 Rams. Mike White (yes, the former Jet who is now the Dolphins backup quarterback) outscored Ryan Tannenhill, Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones this week in fantasy despite throwing 2 passes.
The Dolphins offense has over 1600 yards through 3 games (the most all time). Tua’s EPA per dropback is the second highest mark of the 21st century behind only Tom Brady’s 2007 Patriots that went undefeated until the Super Bowl.
Honestly, the list goes on. This is shaping up to be one of the most fun offenses we’ve seen in a long time. As long as Tua stays healthy, we’re in for a fun season of Dolphins football.
What Are These Coaches Doing?
I’m definitely a fan of analytics and their impact on the NFL. But after watching the debacle in Minnesota, it may be time to take a step back and let these coaches give their heads a shake. Football is a game of momentum and sometimes you need to make the decision based on feel rather than numbers.
Brandon Staley has been on the hot seat in LA after being unable to coach his team to any playoff success despite rostering one of the best pure passers in the NFL in Justin Herbert. And that seat has to be getting extremely uncomfortable despite the Chargers walking away with their 1st victory of the season in week 3.
The Chargers were up by 4 points with 1:51 remaining on their own 25 yard line and Minnesota had no time outs remaining. The analytic numbers say to go for it – but they don’t say to run a poorly disguised fullback run right into the heart of the Vikings defense. The win percentage was 88% for the Chargers by going for it – which seems like a no brainer – but they had a win percentage of 82% by doing the smart thing and punting the ball away! The decision to risk giving the opposing offense the ball at the edge of the red zone instead of giving it to them around their own 35 yard line with about 1:40 remaining without any timeouts is just indefensible.
Thankfully for Chargers fans, the Vikings decided to squander their gift with some messy hurry up offense execution. With 41 seconds left to play, Kirk Cousins hit T.J. Hockenson to get to the Chargers 6 yard line. With plenty of time and downs to spare, the Vikings should have rushed up and spiked the ball – stopping the clock with over 20 seconds remaining, allowing them to call the right play and give Cousins a chance to get the proper pre snap reads. Instead, the Vikings decided to rush to the line, Cousins wasted 24 seconds just trying to hear the play call, and ended up throwing the game-ending interception. After winning 11 one score games in 2022, the Vikings have come crashing back down to Earth starting the season with 3 straight one score losses.
Over in Vegas, the Raiders head coach is being heavily criticized for his late game decision making. The Raiders were down 16 points in the 4th quarter. They cut the lead to 8 after scoring a touchdown and converting on a 2 point conversion. Their defense got a rare stop, and the offense drove the ball down to the Steelers 8 yard line With just 2:25 left to play, head coach Josh McDaniels opted for the field goal on 4th and 4, getting his team within 5 points – but still needing a touchdown to win the game!
Earlier in the drive, McDaniels had opted for the field goal on 4th and 6 from the 30 yard line, but was gifted a fresh set of downs after a Steelers penalty. Even after getting a second chance from the football Gods, McDaniels still opted to play overly conservative, and his offense never saw the ball again.
I understand, getting one play to get 4 yards for the first down, then scoring a touchdown and converting on a second 2 point conversion is hard – but there’s literally zero benefit to kicking that field goal. You still need to score a touchdown to win, and have to rely on what frankly is a poor defensive unit to get a stop in a timely manner to get that ball back.
Eric Bienemy also deserves a shout out for completely abandoning the run in their game against the Buffalo Bills, despite Buffalo being a top 7 passing defense. The Bills stayed in their 2 high defense all game and dared the Commanders to run, and despite Brian Robinson’s early season successes this year, Bienemy teed up passing play after passing play, leading his rookie quarterback Sam Howell to throw an interception in each quarter – a feat only managed 3 previous times in NFL history (all by Jameis Winston).
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.
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