UFC Vegas 79: Fiziev vs Gamrot – 9.23.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

   Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 79: Fiziev vs Gamrot. After a great card in Las Vegas last weekend we have fights back at the UFC Apex this Saturday night. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

   As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 240-154-4 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
• Nick: 256-138-4 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-22-2023 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Tamires Vidal -250 vs Montserrat Rendon +200

• Anthony: The card opens with a women’s bantamweight fight between Montserrat Rendon and Tamires Vidal. Don’t plan on rushing to the TV for this fight between some really low-level athletes. Vidal’s resume is a bit deceiving with not one quality win out of seven professional victories. She is very green in terms of technical skills at the age of 25. Vidal is strong and rather explosive in her movements but far less steady than Rendon. This may be a bout where the underdog can cash by staying at range and avoiding the bigger attacks from Vidal. Rendon is not the most effective on the mat and one would imagine Vidal will be shooting on her if she cannot first take a lead on the feet. I am expecting one way traffic here although I find it hard to pick a winner. Ultimately my pick is Vidal but this is not a fight I plan on betting. Tamires Vidal by Round Three KO
• Nick: Tamires Vidal is 6-1 professionally, with her only loss coming to a UFC vet in Karol Rosa. Her last time out, she won via Flying Knee KO in her UFC debut over Ramona Pascual, Vidal does a good job closing distance and landing powerful shots. She takes a lot of damage in exchanges, but she’s very durable and her power often has more impact than the majority of her opponents do at 135 pounds. At 25-years old she’s going to continue to improve, and she’s shown on more than one occasion that she can be very dangerous as an offensive grappler. Monsterrat Rendon will be making her UFC debut here, with a 5-0 professional record at 34-years-old. She’s getting a late start to her career, but she’s been impressive on the regional scene. Rendon was recently awarded her brown belt in BJJ, but it’s rare we see her lean on that part of her game. She’s an aggressive striker who is more than willing to take a shot to land one. However, we really haven’t seen her tested against top level competition. This is a low level match-up, so this is a low confidence play. Regardless, I see Vidal as the rightful favorite. I expect she’ll take this fight to the mat where she should manage to find a finish against the inexperienced Rendon. Tamires Vidal by Round Two Submission

Mizuki Inoue -300 vs Hannah Goldy +250

• Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s strawweight between Mizuki Inoue and Hannah Goldy. As you can see Inoue is heavily favored despite a long layoff from active competition. Inoue last fought three years ago against now title challenger Amanda Lemos. She had been rather intriguing entering the UFC after looking very good at strawweight during her time at Invicta. While I am not sure this hiatus is a positive for Inoue it is good she is drawing into Goldy her first fight back. Perhaps Goldy is a bit more serious here in a move back to 115 pounds, though really I do not rate her skills highly. Her striking seems rather one-dimensional and against an opponent like Inoue I could see her outclassed while still applying forward pressure. Inoue has a more varied attack than Goldy and more opportunities to land her counters today. Goldy may try to wrestle here against Inoue but I imagine any takedowns that do get secured won’t last for long. Inoue is the better overall martial artist and the likely winner in a fifteen minute bout between these two. Mizuki Inoue by Decision
• Nick: Mizuki Inoue has been out of action since she fell to Amanda Lemos back in August of 2020. She is 14-6 professionally, 2-2 in the UFC, and prior to her recent hiatus she had been showing considerable improvements in each of her fights. Inoue fights out of an excellent camp via Longa and Weidman MMA in New York. The long time away from the UFC is a bit of a concern, but she’s still young for the division so it seems likely she used that time to elevate her game. Hannah Goldy could be described as a physical specimen. She carries a ton of muscle mass. She is extremely strong with powerful strikes, but she has been criticized at times for overexerting herself and putting herself in detrimental positions. While she’s decent everywhere, she really has no standout skill. Her frame makes it difficult for her cardio to hold for three rounds, and while she is strong she doesn’t really turn over on her punches. The line feels wide here given Inoue’s extended layoff. However, she should be the better technical fighter no matter where this one goes. I see Inoue getting back in the win column here. Mizuki Inoue by Decision

Mohammed Usman -145 vs Jake Collier +120

• Anthony: This is a fight at heavyweight between Mohammed Usman and Jake Collier. I am going against my better judgment in this spot and taking the favorite Mo Usman. Collier is on a tough skid here at the heavyweight limit now losing four of his previous five fights. However, the product inside the cage for Collier has not been nearly as disappointing as many would predict. He is putting forth high volume in each matchup and generally outworking some very skilled guys. This camp Collier seems even more dialed in, shedding some weight and entering in better physical shape than usual. I anticipate Collier struggling with the size and physicality of Usman anyways. He looks even more juiced than his brother Kamaru while both clearly have the perfect genes for combat sports. He is drawing into Collier for very good reason as the UFC looks to market Usman in a division lacking depth. Collier will outland him early in this fight but once Usman connects I see the tide quickly turning. As these odds are close to even I think Usman is the right side to bet. He knocked out Zac Pauga with a jab. Mohammed Usman by Round Two KO
• Nick: Mohammed Usman is the brother of former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. He’s nowhere near as talented as his brother, but he is athletically gifted with true KO power on the feet.He’s a competent wrestler, but he certainly prefers to stand and trade as three of his five most recent wins have come via KO. Usman will certainly have the wrestling advantage in this match-up, but his unwillingness to lean on that part of his game has led to him being in a lot of close and controversial decisions. In his most recent win over Junior Tafa, he showed an elevated Fight IQ and willingness to grapple. However, his cardio did start to fade towards the back half of the third round. Collier is the more technical striker in this match-up and he’s likely to throw more volume. As a former middleweight, he doesn’t really have finishing power in his new division. Still, he does a good job throwing combinations and putting consistent pressure on his opponents. Collier is coming off three-straight losses and it seems very likely he’s fighting to keep his roster spot here. Usman recently shifted camps to Factory X in Colorado, which should help his cardio as he’ll be training at high altitude. Collier seems to be in much better shape for this fight than he was last time out, so we can expect each of these fighters to look better here. This is a low level match-up and thus a low confidence play, but I’m intrigued by the value of Collier. He’s the more experienced fighter and he puts out much more volume than Usman does. As long as he can avoid the big shot and mostly keep this standing, he should be able to pull away on the card. Jake Collier by Decision

Jacob Malkoun -600 vs Cody Brundage +440

• Anthony: This fight will be at middleweight between Jacob Malkoun and Cody Brundage. Malkoun had two prior bookings fall through for this date before Brundage agreed to step up and take the opportunity, I am a bit shocked seeing Malkoun favored so heavily here. Brundage has lost three straight so I suppose the underdog role is warranted. Brundage also has a loss to Nick Maximov on his resume while Malkoun beat Maximov during his last octagon appearance. I classify Malkoun as a grappler, formerly winning ADCC trials and implementing a wrestling heavy gameplan in the UFC. Brundage is comfortable on the mat as well but not nearly as credentialed or defensively sound. The only way I see Brundage winning this fight while grappling is by guillotine choke. He seems much more live if successful defending takedowns and engaging with Malkoun on the feet. While Brundage should put forth excellent effort here with his back against the wall, I do not expect him to get the better of Malkoun. The Aussie has incredible top pressure and takedown entries, making him a rather safe bet to win. Jacob Malkoun by Round Two Submission 
• Nick: In many ways, these are two very similar fighters. They both prefer to grapple, they both shoot for takedowns relentlessly and there are questions that need to be answered regarding both of their striking abilities. Given Malkoun was the 2019 ADCC Asia trials winner and a 2019 Pan Pacific gold medalist in Jiu-Jitsu, his grappling success at this level shouldn’t be surprising. He’s coming off a solid win via decision over Nick Maximov, but he has been out of action since October of 2022. Malkoun’s striking continues to improve, but he is primarily a wrestler who shoots takedowns relentlessly. Brundage has a powerful wrestling base and he does a good job pouring damage on his opponents if he can find himself in top position. He can be dangerous on the feet, but he telegraphs most of his strikes and recently it seems his cardio has become a major weakness for him. The line does feel wide here as Brundage can be dangerous early, but it seems likely Malkoun weathers that storm and then puts Brundage away late. Jacob Malkoun by Round Three Submission

Andre Fialho -165 vs Tim Means +140

• Anthony: Next is a fight at welterweight between Tim Means and Andre Fialho. This is a pivotal fight in the careers of both men as they enter on 0-3 losing skids. While Means is a veteran of 26 UFC appearances, the recent showings have left a lot to be desired. The Dirty Bird is much slower than he once was and more willing to accept poor positions nowadays. He is luckily drawing an opponent in Fialho rather one dimensional and easy to predict. Fialho’s superb power and boxing skills make him the favorite in a bout contested purely on the feet. Means will want to make this fight dirty to have any chance of avoiding the knockdown. His awkward style could give Fialho fits as he tries to place punches on the Means chin. Means is also effective working in the clinch and utilizing grappling when takedowns are available. His elbows and clinch strikes could be more effective than the tight uppercuts from Fialho in close. Means appeared to be the bigger man at weigh-ins. This matchup is extremely tough to predict given the volatility of both fighters but it provides the perfect litmus test for the younger Fialho. A loss to Means would indicate to me that Fialho does not still belong here. Tim Means by Decision
• Nick: We have what should be a fun scrap here between two fighters on three-fight losing streaks, who are both likely fighting to stay on the roster. Fialho is relatively well-rounded, but he’s most content to stand and trade as he has true one shot KO power. Andre Fialho is likely to be the aggressor early here, but he’ll need to be careful in managing his gas tank. We’ve seen Fialho fade late in fights on more than one occasion.He is coming off three-straight losses for the first time in his career and his durability seems to be quickly depleting. Tim Means is a seasoned vet who does his best work striking in the clinch. He has extremely advanced technical ability, but he’s definitely not as fast as he was earlier in his career. He’s likely capable of taking Fialho down here, but I’m not confident he’ll try as Means is getting up there in age and he’s very conscious of his fading cardio. Means’ age and durability make this a low confidence play, especially considering how dangerous Fialho will be early. That being said, I like the value of him here as the underdog. After an ugly first round, I expect he’ll take over if he survives. Tim Means by Round Two KO

Dan Argueta -185 vs Miles Johns +150

• Anthony: The featured prelim comes at bantamweight between Miles Johns and Dan Argueta. I tend to bet on Johns quite often, thus far a profitable endeavor with him entering today 4-2 in the UFC. I am a fan of his great defense and lightning quick reaction time. Argueta is a grappler who often relies heavily on his wrestling to win fights. He impressed his last time out against Ronnie Lawrence but does not warrant a price tag so hefty in my opinion. While Argueta’s wrestling seems superb the takedown entries are basic and Johns has thus far defended 92 percent of his opponent’s shots. Johns is known a bit for grappling himself but this fight will instead be won at boxing range, teeing off on the southpaw Argueta. Johns has proven to be the more consistent fighter and I expect him to decide where these two end up engaging. Argueta’s striking has gotten better but he is not nearly as fluid on the feet as Johns. Miles Johns by Decision 
• Nick: Daniel Argueta is primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base. Four of his nine professional wins have come via submission. He’s a decent striker, but he has very short arms. He has decent power, but he’s far from technical on the feet and he struggles to close distance against longer/lankier opponents. He shouldn’t have that issue here, against an opponent in Johns who has a similar style and physical attributes. Miles Johns is primarily a grappler. He’s shown high level wrestling ability with creative entries for takedowns and his striking seems to improve everytime we see him in the cage. Johns often leaves himself open to counterpunches and he doesn’t always finish his combinations offensively. Still, he’s extremely athletic and his well-rounded game makes him a high upside fighter as he continues to improve. This is a tough fight to call as these are two very similar fighters. I’ll side with Argueta as the favorite as I do see him having the better gas tank and general durability. Dan Argueta by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Charles Jourdain -145 vs Ricardo Ramos +120

• Anthony: The main card opens with a bout at featherweight between Charles Jourdain and Ricardo Ramos. This should be a very thrilling matchup if it is contested between these two combatants on the feet. Ramos is coming off a Performance of the Night bonus when he slept Danny Chaves with a spinning back elbow. He is always very creative with his attacks and keen on throwing powerful kicks and elbows in close. Jourdain is going to oblige a kickboxing match here, utilizing his striking with great efficiency. Jourdain may not necessarily have the pop of Ramos but a more sustained boxing presence and higher general output. Jourdain is often best in the latter halves of fights and I think that may be where he separates himself from Ramos. He’s more evasive than Ramos while defending and the much lighter man on his feet. This should be a hell of a scrap and compelling back and forth for as long as it may go. Charles Jourdain by Round Three KO
• Nick: Jourdain has flashed knockout power, which was fully on display in his UFC debut against Doo Ho Choi. He throws a wide range of flashy strikes, pushing an excellent pace and controlling the cage against lower-level opponents. He’s coming off a lackluster but dominant decision win over Kron Gracie in which he kept the fight standing and dominated the striking at range. Jourdain has excellent cardio and he generally does a good job building momentum and giving the best showing of himself in later rounds. Ramos is a dynamic striker who throws a wide-range of attacks. He can definitely cause damage, but he doesn’t throw extended combinations and he has trouble putting volume on opponents. As a result, we often see him fall behind on the scorecards even when he’s causing a lot of damage. He throws wild kicks, which are mostly effective, but they sometimes leave him vulnerable to dangerous countershots. Ramos has been out of action since June of 2022. He was scheduled to fight Austin Lingo in March of 2023, but he missed weight by eight pounds and that fight was then canceled. This should be a competitive and a violent match-up, but I expect Jourdain to stay a step ahead. He’s the more technically sound striker defensively and his chin feels easier to trust compared to his opponent here. Charles Jourdain by Decision

Bryan Battle -185 vs A.J. Fletcher +150

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at welterweight between AJ Fletcher and Bryan Battle. These are two compelling prospects at 170 pounds although I rate Battle much more highly to this point. He is 4-1 in the UFC and fresh of a quick finish in May of this year. He not only lands a higher volume of strikes than Fletcher but also connects with better accuracy. I expect him to handily control Fletcher here on the feet with rather polished offensive striking. There is a drastic ten-inch discrepancy between the reach of these two. Fletcher will likely revert to wrestling in this spot as he stands across from a much taller opponent. Closing the distance is not usually an issue for Fletcher given his effectiveness from both stances. While he may find his way into the pocket here I do not think he has what it takes to chin Battle. The power from Fletcher is above average but he will only win this fight by mixing his martial arts. Battle will want to keep himself at range to land his offense and defend against any takedowns today. He is one of my favorite bets this weekend, having an incredibly high ceiling down at 170 pounds. Bryan Battle by Round Two KO
• Nick: Battle is a well-rounded fighter who continues to make dramatic improvements in all facets of his game. Battle does well striking at range. He’s a decent counter-grappler with advanced BJJ, but his overall takedown defense seems suspect at best. He is certainly most content to stand and trade on the feet, coming off an impressive KO win over Gabe Green. A.J Fletcher is a wrestle-boxer with a compact frame. He is short for the division, but he has a strong base, solid technical boxing ability, and he has shown a high level of athleticism and overall explosiveness. He’s coming off his first UFC win via submission over Themba Gorimbo, after falling twice via decision in his first two appearances with the promotion. Fletcher is always dangerous early, but it seems his cardio and overall explosiveness tend to fade as his fights wear on.Battle is going to have a ridiculous 10” reach advantage here. He’s the better technical striker and I fully expect his defensive grappling to show improvement from what we’ve seen to this point in his career. Fletcher will be dangerous as a wrestler in this match-up, but Battle is the rightful favorite. Bryan Battle by Round Two KO

Marina Rodriguez -300 vs Michelle Waterson +250

• Anthony: The featured bout is a women’s strawweight contest between Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson-Gomez. Both Waterson and Rodriguez enter on losing skids, desperate to get back into the win column. Rodriguez has been the more competitive athlete in general, really only struggling when bouts hit the mat as of late. Waterson does not seem poised to wrestle heavily in this matchup and if it does end up a striking heavy affair, I expect to see her outworked. Rodriguez has a three-inch edge in reach and generally the much higher output offensively. The quality of her attacks beat that of Waterson who is more often caught throwing singular shots from range. A base in karate was effective for Waterson in her early UFC career but the game has drastically changed the past decade. We likely see Rodriguez land the more effective strikes and accrue more meaningful damage. Waterson is live if this were to go to decision but I feel like Rodriguez is a rather safe bet. I won’t bet her heavy at odds this wide but she will be featured in a few parlays for me. Marina Rodriguez by Decision
• Nick: These two fought back in May of 2021, a fight in which Rodriguez kept things standing and won the majority of the striking exchanges at range. Marina Rodriguez is excellent in the clinch and she lands more than five significant strikes per minute. She is somewhat upright in her stance, but she has excellent cardio and durability and she is certainly willing to take damage in order to land on her opponents. She throws combinations better than most of the women in the division. Michelle Waterson is a well-rounded fighter, who has mostly only lost to top contenders. She’s decent on the feet, she puts out consistent volume, but she often misses her opponents as she throws a lot of strikes when she’s out of range. She’s on a three fight losing streak for the first time in her career and while she did recently sign a new contract, it seems likely she’ll be cut from the promotion if she can’t secure a win here. If this fight hits the mat, Waterson should have the clear advantage as we’ve seen Rodriguez struggle to get back to her feet once she’s grounded. When this fight is standing, Rodriguez is going to have a considerable advantage as the more accurate and powerful striker. Waterson is live as an underdog here, but only if she can take this fight to the mat consistently. That being said, I expect Rodriguez to mostly keep things standing where she should win the majority of exchanges. Marina Rodriguez by Decision

Bryce Mitchell -205 vs Dan Ige +165

• Anthony: The co-main event should be a great fight at featherweight between Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige. Although Mitchell had previously lost on The Ultimate Fighter, his first professional defeat came in December at the hands of Ilia Topuria. Not only was Mitchell beaten but badly hurt in that fight after landing just one of nine attempted takedowns. Hopefully Mitchell can be more effective wrestling in this spot. Dan Ige defends just 56 percent of takedowns and often cedes quite a bit of control time to opponents. He is smaller than most featherweights and certainly may struggle facing Mitchell who stands 5’10. I am accustomed to fading Dan Ige in his fights but I have to admit his recent appearances did impress me. He earned wins over Damon Jackson and Nate Landwehr to retain his place in this division’s top fifteen. He has very heavy hands and solid boxing making him live against just about anyone. While some think this draw could play to his benefit I find it to be a tough stylistic matchup for Ige. I consider Mitchell one of featherweight’s best grapplers and expect him to separate himself from Ige when this fight hits the mat. We have already seen Ige dominated on the ground before by Movsar Evloev and The Korean Zombie. I am confident in picking him but less interested in betting as Mitchell is now worse than -200. Bryce Mitchell by Decision 
• Nick: Bryce Mitchell is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the world at featherweight. He comes into this fight at 16-1, off an ugly but understandable loss to a powerhouse and soon-to-be title challenger in Ilia Topuria. Nine of his sixteen professional wins have come via submission. His striking continues to improve, but there is no denying his game plan is almost always to wrestle and grapple both early and often. Ige has an extremely high FIght IQ. He works well behind his jab on the feet, but he’s also comfortable grappling and wrestling as he has a very powerful base and excellent control of his weight/hips. He’s coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since 2020. I see Ige as the better technical striker, the more powerful striker, and the better overall technician. That being said, Mitchell’s advantages on the mat certainly warrant him being the favorite here. Ige has just a 56 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but he usually does a good job working his way back to his feet. This is a tough fight to call, but I like Ige here. He’s the much better striker and I do expect he can keep this fight standing enough to secure the win. Dan Ige by Round Two KO

Rafael Fiziev -150 vs Mateusz Gamrot +125

• Anthony: The main event is a great matchup between top ten lightweights Mateusz Gamrot and Rafael Fiziev. This is not only a great clash of styles but also a great look ahead to the future of this lightweight division. Both are very talented with the skills to compete with the very best. Gamrot’s best work is done when he is grappling and controlling opponents on the mat. He averages more than seven takedowns landed per 25 minutes of cage time. Gamrot is not anywhere as technical as Fiziev when competing on the feet but we have seen dramatic improvements in his striking since entering the UFC. I still expect Fiziev to eat up Gamrot with his kicks and high volume muay thai attack. While Fiziev may be the rightful favorite in this matchup I find it unlikely he slices through Gamrot.  The former KSW double champion has never been finished in his professional career. In a fight likely to go the distance it seems hard to imagine that Fiziev will end every round on his feet. Gamrot will be shooting for takedowns constantly and likely converting on at least a handful to win minutes and rounds. Fiziev feels he can put on a striking masterclass but a built lightweight like Gamrot can likely constrict him here in the smaller Apex cage. There does seem to be value on the Gamrot side given all we have seen from these two prospects. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision
• Nick: Rafael Fiziev is a former striking coach at Tiger Muay Thai. He has ridiculous head movement and throws extremely powerful punches and kicks. He is a problem for anyone in this division when it comes to fighting on the feet. He has knockout power in all of his limbs and his grappling seems to improve every time we see him fight. He’s coming off a narrow decision loss to an extremely tough out in Justin Gaethje, but prior to that he had strung together impressive wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Renato Moicano, and Bobby Green. Gamrot is an excellent chain grappler with a wide range of effective takedown entries. He does an excellent job getting low in pursuit of single legs. He has ridiculous cardio, a solid chin, and excellent instincts both scrambling and in striking exchanges. While he doesn’t really have true one-punch knockout power, he lands meaningful strikes that force his opponents to respect him no matter where the fight goes. Fiziev has an outstanding 90 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but Gamrot is relentless with his chain wrestling. The key to this match-up will be FIziev keeping things standing enough to put damage on Gamrot in exchanges. This is a low confidence play, but I expect he will. Rafael Fiziev by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com

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