Week 1 of Fantasy football is in the books, and there were unexpected results across the board. Prior to the Monday Nighter, there were just 59 total touchdowns scored over the first 15 games. Compare that to 73 last year and 88 the prior season, and there are more than a few owners who were disappointed with their team’s fantasy production opening week. 

   Week 1 is always the hardest – we spend all summer collecting data and analyzing every training camp report, but when it comes to the on field product, there are just too many variables to account for. New coaches and coordinators are implementing their systems for the first time in live game action, players are testing out how compatible they are with each other, and injures become a real issue. There are so many things from this weekend that we can overreact to. While week 1 shouldn’t define your entire fantasy season, there are definitely some real takeaways to learn from going forward.

Notable Injuries

   When I wrote my injury article prior to kickoff on Sunday, I was writing the word hamstring so much that I had to copy and paste it. If week 1 is any indication, It seems like that will continue, as two more big names came up limping with hamstring injuries following the weekend. While it’s too early to begin predicting the timelines on most of these injuries, they’re worth noting before you enter the first waiver wire session of the season.

JK Dobbins –  ACL tear

   This is one we can say for sure – Dobbins is done for the year after the team confirmed that he tore his Achilles and has been scheduled for surgery on Sept 15th. Dobbins is aiming for a 6 month recovery time, which would put him back on the field in March of 2024. Dobbins has only played in 9 games over the past 2 seasons, but was disgruntled earlier in camp with the lack of contract extension talk between him and the team. He’ll now enter the offseason as a free agent with an extensive injury history and no guarantees that he’ll ever return to his pre-injury form. The Ravens are likely to elevate Melvin Gordon from their practice squad to join Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in the backfield. None of these options seem like viable fantasy roster candidates for this season, particularly after the inefficient performances that Edwards and Hill put together in their week 1 matchup.

Jakobi Meyers – Concussion Protocol

   Meyers was a dominant receiver for Jimmy Garoppolo in his first game as a Raider, but took a nasty hit to the head and will have to clear concussion protocol before returning to practice. Meyers finished the game with 9 receptions on 10 targets for 81 yards and found the endzone twice, leading the team across all receiving categories. His playstyle matches perfectly with Garoppolo’s, so I don’t think this performance will be an outlier. If he’s still available in your league, snatch him up. Even if he misses this coming week with injury., there’s a lot of upside there.

Aaron Jones – Hamstring

   Aaron Jones was proving yet again that he’s just far and away a better player than his supposed incumbent A.J. Dillon before coming up lame after reaching the end zone on a 30 yard pass from Jordan Love. Jones continuously finishes in the top 15 in fast scoring at running back, but was definitely neglected entering this year’s draft season. He left with 41 rushing yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, and added 86 yards through the air on just 2 catches and a touchdown. After the game the 28 year old didn’t seem concerned about the injury, and said he would have returned if the game result was in doubt. He looks like he has a good chance to play next week against the Falcons. If he misses the game, the lion’s share of touches will go to Dillon, but after managing just 19 yards on 13 rushing attempts, he would have to be gifted a touchdown to be fantasy relevant.

Diontae Johnson – Hamstring

   The Pittsburgh Steelers offense as a whole had a disappointing week 1 performance. Johnson finished with just 3 catches on 6 targets for 48 receiving yards before leaving in the 3rd quarter with a hamstring injury. I truly expected the Steelers to target him early and often after finishing last season without a touchdown, but they were overwhelmed by the 49ers defense from kickoff. The Steelers haven’t given an update on Johnson as of yet, but it will likely be touch and go all week.

Pat Freiermuth – Chest

   Freiermuth saved his fantasy output by snagging a 3 yard touchdown in a game where he was otherwise irrelevant. He left the game after taking a massive hit to the chest from safety Talanoa Hufanga (who was incredible all game) and will be re-evaluated on Monday. The Steelers play the Cleveland Browns next week in a divisional matchup, and the Browns defense really looked like it made strides in the offseason. Both Johnson and Freiermuth could be in line for back to back down weeks, even if they manage a clean bill of health. 

Tyler Lockett – Concussion

   The Seahawks shocked the NFL with their horrendous 2nd half performance against the Rams, and may have lost Lockett with a possible concussion. After the game Pete Carroll told reporters he was “fine”, but with Carroll that could mean anything from him being out for the season or back at practice Tuesday. Lockett, along with the rest of the Seattle offense, struggled on Sunday, recording 2 catches for 10 yards while in the game. He’ll be due for a bounce back performance if he is in fact ready to return this week against the Lions.

Anthony Richardson – Knee

   The Colts were surprisingly competitive in their game against the Jags on Sunday. But there were concerns when rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson missed the last few snaps after he went down with a knee injury. Early reports are positive however – it appears that he escaped with just a bruised knee and will be alright going forward. The Colts used Richardson as more of a passer than I ever imagined, so even if he is slightly limited on the ground, the initial look at him in the NFL is extremely promising. 

Weather Games Matter 

   There were some games played in absolute downpours this past weekend, and the stats reflected the poor conditions. The Cincinnati Bengals were an absolute disaster on offense – Joe Burrow finished with roughly 3 fantasy points after throwing for just 82 yards, Tee Higgins didn’t even catch a pass on 8 targets, and Ja’Marr Chase had 41 total yards (39 receiving 2 rushing). In New England, the Eagles got off to a fast start against the Patriots before both teams struggled to even record a first down for a long stretch in the first half. Almost every fantasy player was a disappointment in that matchup. The New York Giants were absolutely destroyed in the rain by the Cowboys, but keep in mind that Dallas was up 19 – 0 before they even scored their first offensive touchdown. Keep an eye on the weather reports coming into your weekly matchups if you players are playing in an open stadium – this affects the outcome more than we think.

Can Tyreek Break the Receiving Yards Record

   I haven’t really touched on Tyreek Hill’s comments regarding topping 2,000 receiving yards so far this offseason because that number just seemed ridiculous. However, after going off for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns in a dominant week 1 performance, we need to start taking that possibility more seriously. Obviously there are a lot of things that are out of Hill’s control that need to play out in his favour – health for both him and Tagovailoa chief among them – but with a 17 game season the feat now seems more feasible than ever. Cooper Kupp was just 53 yards short in 2021 (the last time he played a full 17 game season), and his biggest single game receiving yardage performance that season was just 163 yards. 

   To accomplish the feat, a receiver needs to average 117.6 yards per game over the entire season. But after Hill’s week 1 performance, that number is already down to 111.5 yards over the next 16 games. The Dolphins will certainly play better defenses than the Chargers this season, but Hill looked like a man on a mission that will stop at nothing to top the 2000 yardage mark. 

Why Do We Trust Arthur Smith

   The Atlanta Falcons have an incredible selection of offensive weapons that head coach Arthur Smith just simply refuses to use. I’ve been very vocal about my feelings of Desmond Ridder as a starting quarterback (spoiler alert – he shouldn’t be one). But with Kyle Pitts and Drake London as his two primary pass catchers, the offense should still have some semblance of a passing game. 

   Instead, London finished the game with ZERO receptions on ONE target despite playing 90% of the team’s offensive snaps. That is such a waste of his talent that it blows my mind.

   Pitts managed an astounding 44 yards on 2 catches, but only played 62% of the team’s offensive plays. What are we doing here?

   Granted, the Falcons got the win against a terrible Panthers team, and they rode the run game just like they did last year. 2022 rookie 1,000 yard rusher Tyler Allgeier racked up 75 rushing yards and punched in 2 touchdowns, while 2023 8th overall pick Bijan Robinson had a solid debut with 56 rushing yards, 27 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.  But this team is a one trick pony who are lucky to be in the worst division in the NFL. Everyone who took a chance on the Falcons pass catchers this season better hope to sell them off before their value drops even lower than it already has.

Tight Ends Continue to Frustrate

   One of my leagues is a 14 team league that is very competitive. Out of the top 14 tight ends from week 1, only 7 were rostered. Two of those belong to the same owner. Just three tight ends topped double digit points so far this week – Hunter Henry (16% owned), Hayden Hurst (11% owned) and Donald Parham Jr (0% owned). They combined for 13 receptions. The position as a whole has alway been a wasteland, but this week was a particular disaster.

   Top tight ends Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews didn’t suit up for week 1, and their backups were irrelevant in their absence (yes, I fully bought into the Isaiah Likely handcuff hype and paid for it). T.J. Hockenson was a target monster finishing with 8 receptions, but only had 35 total yards. Darren Waller and the Giants offense couldn’t get anything going in the rain against a speedy Cowboys defense. George Kittle was his usual self, blocking anything that moves but didn’t look as explosive as a receiver as he has in the past. The list goes on.

   The tight end position might be the most frustrating position to fill, but there is hope. Sam LaPorta looked better than I expected in his debut against the Chiefs on Thursday night. Dalton Kincaid had a serviceable debut for the Bills. Luke Musgrave was able to turn 3 catches into 50 yards for the Packers. The young talent is here, and might be just what we need to turn the tight end position around in fantasy.

-Devon Gallant

Twitter: @DevGallant

Photo: CCS Pictures. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.

The post Fantasy Rumblings – Week 2 appeared first on Dynes Pressbox.