We’re bringing you a whole slew of new articles that will hopefully guide you through your Fantasy season. Welcome to the first edition of the Dynes Press Box Fantasy Start, Sit, Cut article.

   Start, Sit, Cut’s goal is to look at all the matchups and give you some influence to make those tougher roster choices. We’re obviously not going to waste your time writing about how we think Justin Jefferson will be a top 3 WR this week so he’s a must start – these articles are aimed more at the middle of the pack players that you’ll face decisions about their production week to week. The goal is to help you with those flip flop decisions that you ponder over every Sunday morning while you wait to spend the next 11 hours watching football.

   Since it is Week 1, the cuts portion will be pretty slim – everyone you drafted is on the verge of a breakout until they prove otherwise. Other than that, there are plenty of juicy matchups, and some guys you may want to wait until later on to deploy. 

Let’s get into it.

Start

Geno Smith (QB) – Seattle Seahawks

VS Los Angeles Rams

   Geno was one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks last season, and while he rarely breaks out for a major game, he’s in line for an outstanding start to the season matched up against the Rams. L.A. has roughly $46.7 million committed to their Defense for this coming season – $26 million of that is going to Aaron Donald alone. This defense will be under siege all year, and Geno is the first QB to take advantage.  He has the weapons in front of him to strike often and it’s early enough in the season that Pete Carroll won’t be inclined to take the starters out early. Geno should be a top 5 QB this week, and could still be available on your waiver wire.

Derrick Carr (QB) – New Orleans Saints

@ Tennessee Titans

   Carr is on a new team with a brand new offense and gets to face a roster that’s struggled with covering the pass in recent years. Chris Olave is ready to have a breakout sophomore season, and for at least one week there are no injury question marks surrounding Michael Thomas so the defense can’t cheat towards one side of the field. Add in how good Juwan Johnson has looked in camp, and the Saints look primed to have a field day in the passing game for Week 1. 

Jahan Dotson (WR) – Washington Commander

VS Arizona Cardinals

   This weekly article will mention the Arizona Cardinals a lot. If you’re debating between two players and one of them is against the Cards, pick that guy. This week is Dotson’s time to shine. Not only is he playing against a poor Cardinals team, he’s also going to be playing opposite of a banged up Terry McLaurin. McLaurin is currently without an injury designation, but lingering injuries like turf toe are things that teams don’t take for granted. The Commanders are good enough to take care of the Cardinals without needing McLaurin so I would anticipate McLaurin running a limited route tree and leaving most of the fantasy production to Dotson. There’s no one on the Cards roster who can match up against him and he could easily finish as a WR1 this week.

Courtland Sutton (WR) – Denver Broncos

VS Las Vegas Raiders

   It’s hard to believe that Sutton still has value after some tumultuous seasons, but with almost every other veteran receiver either out or questionable, Sutton might just have an explosive week 1. The Raider defense is questionable at best, and Sean Payton knows how to take advantage of a team’s deficiencies. I think the Broncos as a team will have a huge game on the ground in more of a timeshare than fantasy owners would like, but Sutton should have a big week as the dominant passing target.

Brian Robinson (RB) – Washington Commanders

VS Arizona Cardinals

   Again, the Cardinals factor comes into play here. The game script for the Commanders should really favor Robinson in week 1. I’m not huge on his season long outlook, but this week he’s in line for a lot of between the tackles looks and some valuable goal line punches. I doubt they will need Antonio Gibson and his pass catching work out of the backfield very often, so Robinson will be a garbage time monster. 

Raheem Mostert (RB) – Miami Dolphins

@ Los Angeles Chargers

   Mostert puts up excellent rushing numbers when healthy and the Chargers defense gives up a lot on the ground. With Jeff Wilson Jr. already on IR, Salvon Ahmed nursing an injury, and the team releasing Myles Gaskin, that leaves only rookie De’Von Achane as someone who could reasonably steal touches away from Mostert. That was until he was ruled out this morning. For Week 1 at least, Mostert is in line to be a bell cow back.

Tyler Higbee (TE) – Los Angeles Rams

@ Seattle Seahawks

   Tyler Higbee is the only receiving option on the Rams who has ever had more than 90 targets in a season. I think Van Jefferson can be a good player for the team, but without Cooper Kupp in the lineup, Higbee immediately steps into the role of a #1 receiver for Matthew Stafford. He was the TE7 in half point PPR last season in the first 5 games without even recording a touchdown, and the Seahawks are without Jamal Adams in week 1 to help provide coverage. He’ll be Stafford’s top target this week and could easily finish as the top TE overall with all the other injury concerns at the position if he finds the end zone. He should be picked up in every league.

By default, Isaiah Likely and Tyler Higbee have both become must-start TEs this week.

It’s Week 1. How are we already this deep in the weeds?

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 10, 2023

Sit

Aaron Rodgers (QB) – New York Jets

VS Buffalo Bills

   Aaron Rodgers didn’t get an easy introduction to his regular season debut with the Jets. While the Bills are still without Von Miller, they have a stingy defense that was one of the toughest opponents for fantasy offenses last season. Rodgers is quite obviously a massive upgrade over what the Jets had at quarterback last season, but with major question marks along the offensive line, Rodgers will be relying on short check down throws and the running game on offense while hoping the defense can contain Josh Allen.

Deshaun Watson (QB) – Cleveland Browns

VS. Cincinnati Bengals

   While the Browns will have to lean on their passing game to keep up with the high powered Bengals offense, relying on Watson to have a standout performance isn’t a wise choice. He hasn’t performed well in the preseason, and the hopes that the Browns had of him returning to his 2019 form are quickly fading. Watson had 42 pass attempts against the Bengals in week 13 of last season, and still didn’t come out as a top 12 fantasy QB. With the same defensive coordinator in place, the Bengals will have no problem shutting down Watson and the passing game in week 1.

Michael Pittman (WR) – Indianapolis Colts

VS. Jacksonville Jaguars

   There’ll be weeks where Pittman can finish in the top 20 at WR, but week 1 with Anthony Richardson making his NFL debut won’t be one of them. While Richardson is already being touted as the most athletic quarterback to come into the NFL, keep in mind that a once comparable prospect Justin Fields went 6 for 20 and 68 yards and 9 sacks in his first start – and he had already had an opportunity to get into a couple regular season games. Richardson will be in tough without his star running back to take some pressure off, and Pittman will be left out to dry more often than not.

D.J. Moore (WR) – Chicago Bears

VS. Green Bay Packers

   While Fields has obviously grown leaps and bounds since that first start performance, his new star wide receiver addition will be tied up this week against the Packers. Jaire Alexander was the 4th ranked corner in coverage over the past 2 seasons. He doesn’t typically shadow receivers, but without any other serious receiving threats in Chicago, he’ll likely spend over 75% of his defensive snaps assigned to Moore. The Packers defense definitely has flaws, especially in slot coverage, but considering Moore has lined up on the outside 82% of the time, he’s in for a tough matchup with a quarterback who has yet to prove he’s accurate enough to beat this level of coverage.

Breece Hall (RB) – New York Jets

VS. Buffalo Bills

   While I’m huge on the prospects of Hall this coming season, Week 1 has all the signs of a down week for the Jets star. He is of course coming back from an ACL tear, and with Dalvin Cook ready and healthy, the Jets will likely give him the lion’s share of the work this week. I expect it to look a lot like the distribution between Gibbs and Montgomery on the Thursday nighter – Hall will be the more efficient runner, but Cooks will get more work and the inevitable touchdown. Don’t let it turn you off of Hall – he will be the focal point of this offense soon enough – but you might want to look for better options to start the season.

James Cook (RB) – Buffalo Bills

@ New York Jets

   James Cook shot up draft boards in the final few weeks of fantasy draft season, but Week 1 isn’t the time to put your faith in him. The Jets defensive front is strong against the pull zone run game, which is how the Bills would ideally like to use Cook in the lineup. Anyone who invested in Cook is also banking on Josh Allen recognizing that he cannot continue to take the punishment he’s been taking with his aggressive play style and he will transition to dumping it off to his running back. But until we see that in action, it’s hard to believe it will come to fruition. With Damien Harris and Latavius Murray ready to be red zone vultures, Cook starters will be in for a rough week.

Dalton Schultz (TE) – Houston Texans

@ Baltimore Ravens

   Finding a sit candidate in the tight end spot is almost redundant for week 1 – Kelce already missed his matchup and Andrews, Kittle and Waller all have the questionable tag next to their name. With a position as thin as tight end, start whomever you have to. Schultz gets thrown under the bus because he’s somehow rostered on 69% of teams on Yahoo fantasy. He played all of the snaps in preseason in 11 personnel but only 38% of them when there was another tight end on the field. The Texans clearly are trying to protect him and only use him on passing downs, but his past fantasy production has been solely based on touchdowns. Against one of the best defenses in the league, there won’t be many opportunities for Schultz this week.

Cut

Adam Thielen (WR) – Carolina Panthers

   Thielen already seems like the old man receiver in the league at 33 years old. He was clearly regressing near the end of the past season, and while the Panthers new regime gave him a huge deal to come to Carolina, it feels like he’ll be entering a mentoring role sooner rather than later. The Panthers are severely lacking in receiving options, but I doubt Thielen will be able to make an impact. There are plenty of fliers on your waiver wire that will far exceed his ranking by the end of the season.

Kadarius Toney (WR) – Kansas City Chiefs

   If you look up the craziest roller coasters in the world, Toney might be in the top 10 results. He was a 2021 1st round draft pick by the Giants, but after a season and a half of injuries and inconsistency, they gave him to the Chiefs for a late 3rd and 6th round pick. Toney, when available, looked like he was going to add a new dimension to the league’s top offense, but availability has always been a major concern. He missed most of training camp dealing with an injury he suffered while warming up, and his first performance of the season was an absolute disaster. He is incredibly talented, but we are reaching the point where his inability to stay on the field far outweighs his potential impact when he is on it. His Week 1 case of the dropsies did little to secure his spot in the Chiefs WR pecking order. 

-Devon Gallant

Twitter: @DevGallant

Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.

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