Hope.
That’s what the Washington Commanders have for the first time in a generation. Dan Snyder is out as the team’s owner, and Josh Harris is in. The impact of his ownership might not show immediately, but the general feeling is that things are okay in Washington for the first time in a long time.
It’s been over six seasons since the Commanders last had a winning record, but they’ve only won less than 7 games once during that span. For the most part, this has been a fairly competitive on field product, even if the off-field drama has left the team and everything around it feeling uninspiring. They were 8-8-1 last season and barely missed out on the playoffs.
The goal this season for the Commanders is to challenge for the playoffs, even in the tough NFC East. Any sort of regression from the Commanders would be disappointing. The offensive line has improved, Sam Howell will likely provide more than Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz last season, and the defense will still quietly be one of the better units in the NFL. Let’s check in on the offense first.
Offense
Based on his performances in the preseason and against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18, Ron Rivera might be wishing that he brought Sam Howell into the starting lineup a little sooner. The former 5th round pick has the pedigree of a quarterback drafted in a much higher spot, but Howell fell to the 5th, leaving the Commanders with an easy decision to draft him – even if they didn’t anticipate using him in year 1.
Now Howell is the starter and has Eric Bienemy as his offensive coordinator for his first full campaign as the team’s QB1. There are worse positions to be in if you’re a young quarterback. Howell has a dynamic receiving duo in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson to lean into. He still needs refinement, and to speed up his processing, but he’s shown the ability to sling the ball downfield and create out of structure. Put him within the right system, a potential RPO-heavy offense, and reap the benefits.
Bienemy is likely going to allow Howell to show off his athleticism. He had 1,106 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in his final season with UNC in 2021. Adding a dynamic quarterback run game into the offense – most likely predicated on options – gives this team another wrinkle to throw at opponents. There’ll be growing pains for Howell in his first full season, but this offense could be in the top half of the league with a few breaks.
One to watch: Jahan Dotson
Defense
The Commanders have quietly been building a strong defense over the last two seasons. They finished 9th in defensive DVOA and allowed the third-fewest yards per game (304.6). Like most good defenses, everything started up front for the Commanders. The defensive line is elite. Full of explosive pass-rushers that can eat up offensive linemen with a combination of speed and power. The Commanders had the 5th-best pressure rate in the NFL last season, and that was with Chase Young only playing three games in 2022. The front office chose to decline his fifth-year option, meaning he’s a free-agent at the end of the season, but he’s looked healthy and raring to go in the preseason. If he’s on his game, the pass-rush could be even better.
Most of the defense remained intact this offseason as well. A big win for the team, even if it meant signing Daron Payne four-year, $90 million contract. Payne is one of the rising talents among interior linemen in the NFL and is still just 26 years old. Locking him down for his prime – and keeping him on the same line as Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Young – for this season at least, gives this defense a high ceiling.
The Commanders used their first round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to add cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, a rather surprising selection given some of the other cornerback talent on the board. But Forbes is an interesting prospect. He’s vastly undersized, and could be bullied by bigger receivers in the NFL, but he was an elite ball skill player in college, picking off 14 passes across three seasons.
Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will likely use Forbes as a boundary corner in a Quarters heavy scheme, allowing him to play deep and disrupt at the catch point. The Commanders ran Quarters at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL, per PFF Ultimate and didn’t allow a touchdown in that coverage.
The secondary still has a few question marks however. Darrick Forrest is slated to be the teams starting safety alongside Kam Curl, but has only played 89 snaps in three seasons. However, this defense really has a high ceiling. They could be a top 5 unit in the NFL if they’re able to avoid injuries.
One to watch: Jartavius Martin
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.
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