There isn’t much that a Fantasy owner loves more than drafting a player well below their ADP, but there are certain players in this year’s draft that you should consider taking off of your draft boards completely. This could be the result of a myriad of factors – age, recent injury history, or the state of the team itself. Today we’ll take a look at these players, and I’ll make the case for who you should avoid taking this season.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers – New York Jets – QB 12, ADP 110
By now, we all know the story of Aaron Rodgers and how he came to the New York Jets. He appears to be motivated to put together a winning season, basically handing the Jets an extra $35 million that he was owed so that the team had the financial resources to continue adding pieces around him. Rodgers is surrounded by his favorite receivers, an offensive coordinator that he respects and has worked extremely well with in the past, and some new young dynamic offensive weapons. Sounds like the perfect late round quarterback to scoop up, so why is he included in this article?
While the former Packer had a down year last season and is clearly nearing the end of an illustrious career, I actually think he still has a few more productive years ahead of him. The reason I’m recommending avoiding Rodgers all together is mostly based around the team – mainly its defense and offensive line.
The Jets have one of the best defenses on paper, and look to be a dominant unit again this year. Playing with Robert Saleh’s shut down defensive squad will limit the amount of points Rodgers will need to put up per game to win – he can ride the defense and utilize the run game to milk the clock all season long. With Dalvin Cook joining Breece Hall (if/when he returns from injury), the Jets have given their new QB a reliable and potentially explosive one-two punch in the backfield.
While the defensive unit is the team’s biggest strength, the offensive line for the Jets is a weakness. While I said I still believe Rodgers has some productive years ahead of him, he most certainly will not be as agile as he used to be as he approaches his 40th birthday. Tackle Mekhi Becton has been dealing with knee injuries since his rookie season, and the former 11th overall pick has only suited up for 1 game over the past 2 seasons. That leaves Duane Brown, who will be 38 by the time the season starts, as the tackle opposite of Alijah Vera-Tucker. Not exactly an ideal scenario, particularly in a division as defensively stout as the AFC East.
Rodgers on the Jets feels like the type of player that turns out to be much better on the field than in fantasy football this coming season. He may have the occasional game where he breaks out, but all too often he will be walking away with a 21-17 victory with 200 yards and one touchdown. Great for Jets fans who are dying to see their team go on a Super Bowl run, but not very practical for fantasy.
Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers – QB 19, ADP 150
Bryce Young will probably have a long and successful career. He has the skills to become a productive quarterback in the league – it just isn’t going to be this season.
After watching his performance in the team’s preseason game, there’s certainly a lot to like about the team’s 1st overall selection, but there are some alarms going off as well. Young is cool, calm and collected in the pocket, and almost unflappable when pressure is coming. Unfortunately for him, that pressure seemed to come all too often, and at 6’0” and 194 lbs you can see the size discrepancy when the edge rushers got to him – and they didn’t ease up when tackling Young. To his credit, Young popped up after each hit, and even stood in to take a couple extra hits to make sure he got the pass off – but every one of those hits has to make Panthers fans concerned at least a little bit.
Carolina has tried to rebuild their offense under new head coach Frank Reich, but Adam Thielen, their big wide receiver signing, has already shown signs of decline, and Miles Sanders, their running back addition, has had an inconsistent 4 year career. Young doesn’t have the weapons, or the offensive line, to break out this year.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts – RB 8, ADP 16
With the saga in Indianapolis ongoing, it’s impossible to trust Jonathan Taylor in fantasy this season. That could all change if he somehow agrees to a contract extension or he finally gets his wish and is traded. But as it stands right now, it looks like he and the Colts are playing a game of chicken that could last deep into the regular season. This situation has all the same vibes as Le’Veon Bell had when he wanted an extension with the Steelers. Bell held out for the entire season, and eventually moved on to the Jets. Taylor is searching for compensation based on his years of elite work at running back, and to be honest, it’s probably his last chance to secure a major contract, so the odds of him budging seem slim. He and Colts owner Jim Irsay are clearly not on the same page, so Taylor brings with him too much risk for your fantasy roster.
Even if Taylor does return to Indianapolis, he’s still rehabbing his foot injury from last season and there have been rumours about back problems – although those could be fabricated by Irsay’s team to try and diminish Taylor’s value. Without any reps in camp, Taylor is looking at a slow start to the season as he gets back into football shape.
The Colts also just named rookie 4th overall pick Anthony Richardson as their starting quarterback to open up the season. Richardson is one of the most exciting running quarterbacks we have seen, combining the pure speed and elusiveness of Justin Fields with the size and strength of Lamar Jackson. Richardson will be the leading rusher in most situations for the Colts this season, and will most certainly take the lion’s share of the red zone work, further diminishing Taylor’s value. It’s just too difficult to see a scenario where Taylor returns to his former pro bowl form this season.
Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders – RB 9, ADP 25
Jacobs is another back who’s currently not with his team at camp, and there have yet to be many promising rumours about a reunion between the team and player. Jacobs has actually reportedly left Las Vegas to further emphasize his discontent with the club. Unlike with Taylor, this situation does feel less explosive than the one in Indy. If I were a betting man, I would put money on Jacobs suiting up for week 1. However, like Taylor, that will likely lead to Jacobs getting off to a slow start – something you have to avoid in fantasy football.
The Raiders offense is in a bit of a shift right now, with the club moving on from Derek Carr at quarterback. But after missing so much time over his career with injuries, there are doubts that Jimmy Garrapolo is the man to help move the offense. Outside of Kolton Miller at tackle, the Raiders don’t have much talent along their offensive line as well, so every yard that Jacobs earns is a tough one. Garrapolo likes to get the ball out to his receivers quickly, so the Raiders might shift their offense to accommodate him, taking away some opportunities from Jacobs.
Las Vegas also employs a super thin group in their defensive secondary, and are expected to be amongst the league leaders in points given up – a stat that doesn’t bode well for a team’s running game.
The contract uncertainty and the potential implosion of the team as a whole this coming season has me avoiding Jacobs at all costs.
Miles Sanders – Carolina Panthers – RB 20, ADP 50
While Sanders rushed for over 1,200 yards and punched in 11 touchdowns last season with the Eagles, he was a part of one of the most explosive offenses in the league – led by the top rated offensive line. His 11 touchdowns were a complete anomaly, after scoring 3, 6, and 0 in each of his first 3 seasons in the league. Last season was also the first season of his career where he started more than 12 games, and he’s already dealing with a groin injury at his first camp in Carolina. Soft tissue injuries are something that can certainly linger for longer than you’d like, particularly in running backs, so there’s already some injury concern there.
Like Bryce Young, Sanders will be hampered by the Panthers offensive line this season and won’t have the luxury of the holes created by the Eagles front 5 in 2022. The one positive for Sanders heading to Carolina is that he reunites with Frank Reich, who was offensive coordinator in Sanders rookie season when he accumulated 509 receiving yards and 50 receptions. Since then, Sanders has been a non factor in the pass game. It will be interesting to see if that was due to the Eagles change in scheme or if Sanders rookie season was an anomaly.
The Panthers offense as a whole doesn’t inspire me, and I think they’ll be in too many low scoring games this season to really trust any of their offensive weapons for fantasy purposes.
INJURY UPDATE: @Panthers RB Miles Sanders (groin) unlikely to play in the remaining 2 preseason games per Frank Reich. Team is being cautious in hopes of getting him ready for Week 1 pic.twitter.com/kCMJstcsxU
— The Fantasy Source (@FantasySource_) August 16, 2023
D’Andre Swift – Philadelphia Eagles – RB 24, ADP 59
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Rashaad Penny – Philadelphia Eagles – RB 35, ADP 96
The Eagles running back room as a whole looks to be one to avoid. Jalen Hurts can do damage on the ground as well as through the air, and he very rarely targets his running backs in the passing game.
Early expectations were that the duo of Penny and Swift would form a tandem for the Eagles, with Penny taking the bulk of the carries and Swift being utilized as a swiss army knife throughout the offense.
That situation has yet to play itself out in camp, as beat reporters out of Philly have been talking about Kenneth Gainwell’s consistent presence on the 1st team offense, ahead of Penny. In the Eagles opening exhibition game, Gainwell and Boston Scott took the night off with the rest of the starters, while Penny played well into the 2nd quarter. The Eagles didn’t make any long term commitment to Penny as their lead back of the future after an injury plagued beginning of his career in Seattle. And thus far it doesn’t look like he’s going to blow the doors off and take control of the lead job.
Swift will be utilized in his projected role, but like I said, Hurts targeted his running backs at an incredibly low rate last season, and I have a hard time seeing that change dramatically enough that Swift turns into a real fantasy asset.
The whole room is just too cluttered with Penny, Swift, Scott, Gainwell and Hurts trying to divvy up the rushing yards for this team. I’d recommend avoiding them all together unless there are some personnel changes upcoming.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins – Tennessee Titans – WR 19, ADP 49
Former Cardinal and Texan DeAndre Hopkins signed a big deal with the Tennessee Titans in free agency, but I have a hard time seeing a productive year out of the 31 year old receiver. There’s no doubting Hopkins’ talent – he’s been one of the most exciting receivers over the past 10 years, but has only played in 19 games over the past 2 seasons due to injury and suspension. When he returned to the Cardinals halfway through last season, he was peppered with targets (96) and accumulated 717 yards on 64 catches in just 9 games. However, he was only able to snag 3 touchdowns during that stretch, and his yards per completion tied a career low at 11.2. Much of his struggles can be blamed on the quarterback play in Arizona, but there aren’t many signs that it will improve in Tennessee.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is back to take snaps in one of the most run dominant offenses in the NFL. With Derrick Henry leading the charge, Tannenhill has made a career out of just not making major mistakes in the passing game, which limits the big play potential through the air for all of his receivers.
The Titans also have a lot of draft capital invested in former 1st round pick Treylon Burks, who’s impressed during his first relatively healthy training camp this offseason. Fellow sophomore Chigoziem Okonkwo is also a favorite to take a big step forward this season, providing Tannehill with a big security blanket in the middle of the field.
I will always love to watch Hopkins work – he’s good for a few highlight reel catches a season – but I don’t like the team fit. His injury history concerns me too much at his age to watch him on my fantasy roster.
DJ Moore – Chicago Bears – WR 21, ADP 55
The Chicago Bears certainly have a lot invested in DJ Moore after acquiring him in the trade that sent the 1st overall pick to the Carolina Panthers. But it’s just too hard to trust in a receiver on an offense that threw the ball at a historically low rate last season. Of course, Fields will likely make strides in his passing game, and with Moore there, all of a sudden the Bears receivers slot in much better offensively.
Moore showed off his explosive abilities in the Bears first preseason game, turning a poorly thrown screen pass into a 62 yard touchdown. While the play was impressive, the throw from Fields was off target, and Moore was essentially allowed to turn and run straight up the field against a poor Titans defensive group.
While Fields’ stats look promising from that exhibition game, along with the Moore big play, Khalil Herbert was allowed to turn a dump off into a 56 yard touchdown. Those plays will get cleaned up and not be available to the Bears during the season. If Moore’s to have a successful fantasy campaign, Fields is going to have to be able to turn the ball loose downfield and let Moore go up and make a play. Until I see that in a real game scenario, I’ll be letting someone else draft DJ Moore this year.
Mike Williams – Los Angeles Chargers – WR 28, ADP 71
Mike Williams has been on my do not draft list for years now. I don’t doubt the talent – he is a big bodied downfield threat that can finish plays in the red zone. He should be every fantasy manager’s dream.
Unfortunately Williams is just as likely to take the night off than to explode for over 100 yards and a couple touchdowns. In week 14 of last year, Williams finished as the 4th best fantasy player – his ceiling is so tremendously high – but he also finished lower than the 35th overall seven times last season, not including the 4 games he missed to injury. Williams has an extensive injury history and has never played a full season in his 6 year NFL career.
The Chargers also added exciting rookie receiver Quentin Johnson in the 1st round of the draft. Johnson is another big bodied threat that seems to have been drafted as Williams insurance. With the addition of Johnson to Keenan Allen and pass catching expert Austin Ekeler, I really have a hard time seeing how Williams takes a step forward in his 7th year in the league. That one week where he leads your team to victory will feel so sweet, but there are just too many weeks where he would be better served on your bench. There are more reliable options out there.
Michael Pittman – Indianapolis Colts – WR 37, ADP 74
While teammate Jonathan Taylor’s situation is murky, Pittman’s is more cut and dry – he is a bona-fide WR1 on a team that is starting a rookie quarterback that struggles with accuracy and prefers to rack up the yards with his legs. Pittman was supposed to have his breakout season last year, but the Colts were a dumpster fire, especially at the quarterback position. Despite being targeted 141 times, Pittman finished with a career low in yards per completion (9.3), and only hauled in 4 touchdowns on 925 yards. In full PPR, there is some value to his 99 receptions, but in ½ PPR or standard scoring, that’s just not enough production.
While a new head coach and starting quarterback bring some light to what’s been a dark few seasons for the Colts, Pittman looks to be setting up for another season of inaccurate and mistimed throws. He would be a fantastic player on a team with more secure quarterback play, but unfortunately the situation in Indy does not bode well for him this coming season.
Tight Ends
George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers – TE 4, ADP 51
As someone who has drafted Kittle year after year, this one hurts. But I believe it’s time to move on from one of the best players in the NFL from a fantasy perspective.
Kittle is an exciting offensive weapon that never has to leave the field thanks to his elite ability and pass blocking. But all those hard years have taken their toll on the 29 year old tight end. Kittle is already dealing with an abductor injury in camp, and there was a noticeable drop off in production last season, particularly over the first two thirds of the year.
The 49ers offense simply has too many weapons in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk for Kittle to sustain any consistent production.
It’s worth pointing out however, that Kittle did end the season on a hot streak, scoring 7 touchdowns over the last 4 games of the year, which coincided with the team inserting Brock Purdy at quarterback. There’s no doubt the duo has a connection on the field, and with Purdy being named the starting QB to start this season, there’s still a glimmer of hope for Kittle.
As much as I would love to have another run with Kittle, the risk is just too high to take him as early as he’s going in drafts. I think a full offseason with McCaffrey in the fold will have Kyle Shanahan utilize the star running back even more, particularly in the red zone, taking away production from Kittle. He’s entering the season as the 4th option in the passing game for the team and that’s just too dangerous of a pick to make.
Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons – TE 5, ADP 67
Kyle Pitts had a rare breakout rookie season for a tight end in 2021, amassing 1,026 yards on 68 receptions. Unfortunately his sophomore season was a disaster as he only managed to play in 10 games due to injury and dealt with horrendous quarterback play when he was in the game. He finished with just 28 receptions, and saw his catch percentage plummet to an embarrassingly low 47.5%.
With Desmond Ridder set to take snaps again this year, I have a hard time seeing Pitts having any sort of bounce back year. The videos out of camp don’t show any improvement in Ridder’s accuracy or placement of the ball, as most throws force Pitts to have to reach back to make the catch. Pitts averaged just 2.8 catches a game with 6.03 yards per target last season – not underlying numbers you want to see for a promising prospect. Add in the fact that he only has 3 touchdowns over his first 27 games shows you how underused he is in the red zone for this offense.
Pitts had surgery last November for an MCL tear. While the Falcons have slowly added to his workload in camp and there have not been any reports of a setback, he’s still wearing a knee brace and doesn’t seem to be fully comfortable yet, which is mildly concerning.
Pitts has the ability to be one of the top tight ends in the league, and he very well can still reach those heights. Unfortunately, this offense will go as far as the run game takes it, and Pitts will likely be asked to stand in and block for Bijan Robinson more often than not. Head coach Arthur Smith seems content to run the ball down the throats of defenses. And with how productive he was at it last season, it’s hard to see why he would change now. Unfortunately I just don’t see Pitts getting the opportunities he deserves this season, and until the offense makes some major changes, his talents will continue to be underused in Atlanta.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.
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