UFC 292: Sterling vs O’Malley – 8.19.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

   Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Boston: Sterling vs O’Malley. It has been a while since the octagon last graced Boston but tonight TD Garden will be rocking with two UFC title belts up for grabs! Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

   As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every Fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 197-140-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
• Nick: 211-126-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 8-18-2023 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Karine Silva -150 vs Maryna Moroz +120

• Anthony: The early prelims are set to begin with Karine Silva facing Maryna Moroz at women’s flyweight. This is a rematch of a 2014 bout that saw Moroz submit Silva at strawweight in XFC. Both women have evolved tremendously since then with Silva now victorious in seven fights straight. She is legitimate in terms of her striking and while most top 125ers should get the better of Silva, middling competition like this could struggle. Moroz is not dangerous at all on the feet and instead poses a threat to finish only if these two do get involved grappling with one another. Silva has improved a lot in terms of her wrestling skills and now enters on quite the tidy streak of submission wins. I’d rather Silva strike than provide Moroz the opportunity to land sub attempts, but whether standing or grappling she should have the edge over Moroz today. It has been a few years since Moroz’ last quality victory and I did not like her showing against Jennifer Maia in the bout she dropped in November of last year. I’ll have a small bet on the Brazilian here with odds closing closer to par than I expected. Karine Silva by Decision
• Nick: Karine Silva is primarily a grappler and very big for the flyweight division. She has strong hips, decent entries for takedowns, and once she’s on the mat she certainly favors chasing submissions over holding position. She is 2-0 under the UFC banner and 16-4 professionally. He BJJ is more advanced than many ranked fighters in the division. She is on a six fight win streak with all of those wins coming via finish. Maryna Moroz represents a considerable step up in competition for Silva in this match-up. Maryna Moroz is 11-3 professionally, an experienced veteran fighting under the UFC banner since April of 2015. She has been out of action since November of 2022, following a convincing decision loss to a tough opponent in Jennifer Maia. Moroz has the better cardio and she’s the more technically advanced striker in this match-up. Silva will have a considerable advantage if this fight hits the mat, but it is notable that Moroz has never been submitted professionally. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll back the underdog here. As long as she avoids getting caught early, I expect she can weaponize her cardio and then take over as this fight wears on. Maryna Moroz by Decision

Natalia Silva -335 vs Andrea Lee +260

• Anthony: Next is a matchup between women’s flyweights Andrea Lee and Natalia Silva. Lee enters this fight on a 2-5 losing skid despite rather competitive showings in her last few octagon appearances. Now at age 34 I do not mind fading Lee, especially against a talented up and coming prospect such as the one she is facing. Silva is just 26 and entering today’s fight on a winning streak of nine. -335 seems like a tough price to pay for Silva but it appears warranted after seeing her most recent victories. She put quite the beating on Jasmine Jasudavicius as a +200 dog last year and since then she’s won two in a row via head kick. Silva’s striking is precise and dangerous while Lee instead focuses on pressure and striking volume. Lee probably loses if she strikes with Silva all evening, making this a much more competitive bout if able to execute a takedown successfully. Silva is very skilled when fights hit the mat but I certainly see her susceptible to Lee’s wrestling, especially if not patient, conserving her energy for three whole rounds. Silva backers will want to see her keep Lee at the end of her strikes and get into exchanges where her power is not exactly getting matched. Natalia Silva by Decision
• Nick: Natalia Silva is primarily a grappler, with seven of her fifteen professional wins coming via submission. She is coming off three-straight wins under the UFC banner and nine consecutive wins overall. She most recently secured an impressive KO finish of Victoria Leonardo. Her striking continues to show dramatic technical improvement both offensively and defensively. Her shots have been more powerful, and her footwork is developing into a major strength for her when she’s striking at range. Andrea Lee is athletic with excellent cardio. She’s well-rounded offensively with dangerous kickboxing, a solid judo base and dangerous BJJ. She’s coming off a hard fought but controversial loss to a top contender in Maycee Barber. She does her best work when she can overpower her opponents, but against Silva here I expect that could be difficult. Lee has a considerable advantage in experience here, but this feels like two fighters’ who are seeing their careers head in opposite directions. The line is far too wide, but Silva’s skills should be enough to pass this litmus test. Natalia Silva by Decision

Andre Petroski -235 vs Gerald Meershaert +185

• Anthony: The early prelims conclude with this fight at middleweight between Andre Petroski and Gerald Meershaert. I find this to be a good test for Petroski who has thus far impressed in his octagon showings albeit during matchups with lackluster names. Still, he is finishing fights at a high clip and effectively mixing his martial arts. Petroski does a lot of great work on the mat utilizing his wrestling and great top pressure to control fights. He secured eight takedowns against Wellington Turman last fall and another eight in his three UFC bouts prior. I consider the Renzo Gracie product a rather dangerous grappler but certainly not more than the always game GM3. Meershaert has 27 professional wins by submission and is always a live underdog when bouts do hit the mat. Meershaert does seem a bit more labored fighting out the tail end of his career, but nonetheless this is not a guy you want to make a habit of fading. Ideally Petroski will exchange with Meershaert a bit on the feet as he enjoys a clear advantage there with his power and speed. One way or another I expect to see Petroski finishing this fight. Andre Petroski by Round Two KO
• Nick: Petroski is a decorated collegiate level wrestler who mostly leans on his powerful grappling to overwhelm and discourage his opponents. He has shown KO power on the regional scene, but he telegraphs his strikes which means in most matchups he’s best suited to lean on his grappling ability. He is 4-0 since joining the UFC, most recently securing an impressive decision win over a tough out in Wellington Turman. Prior to that win, all of Petroski’s wins had come via finish. His cardio seems to have improved over his last few fights, which was a key to his success as it seemed to be a major weakness earlier in his career. Meerschaert is well-rounded, but most of his professional wins have come via submission. He’s a highly skilled BJJ black belt with a seemingly endless arsenal of attacks on the ground. As good as Meerschaert is on the mat, he sometimes has trouble getting the fight there. His takedown entries leave a lot to be desired and his wrestling ability is questionable at best. The line feels too wide here, but I do see Petroski as the rightful favorite. Both of these fighters are flawed, but Petroski’s pressure via wrestling should allow him to cause more damage over the course of three rounds. As long as he avoids getting caught in a Meershaert submission, I expect he secures another win here. Meershaert is dangerous, but Petroski has more paths to victory. Andre Petroski by Round Two KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Brad Katona -160 vs Cody Gibson +135

• Anthony: Our preliminary card begins on ESPN with the conclusion of The Ultimate Fighter bantamweight championship. Brad Katona will face Cody Gibson for a return ticket into the UFC. Katona had previously won The Ultimate Fighter 27 at featherweight before a 1-2 promotional tenure. He is a very complete fighter with excellent technical skills on the feet and a strong, thick base for this division. I consider his performance on TUF rather solid and he should certainly have a slight edge over Gibson in today’s exchange on the feet. Both men employ wrestling heavy gameplans into their fights and Katona should counter well if Gibson does decide to shoot for his legs. Gibson was dealing with a bad knee injury on the show and while one would think he has healed fully to this point, I reckon he should be a bigger underdog than this. Katona’s losses came against rather stiff competition and while he is not the most dynamic fighter, it is easy to rely on him for a hard three rounds no matter what. I love the shape Katona is in entering this fight especially as he draws into a much lankier and less powerful foe. Odds of -160 seem great in this spot when I would take Katona as high as -200 today. Brad Katona by Decision
• Nick: This match-up represents The Ultimate Fighter Season 31 Tournament Final at bantamweight. Each of these fighters was a member of the seasons’ ‘veterans’ team as both finalists previously fought for the promotion. Having already been awarded a contract as the winner of Season 27, Brad Katona will be looking to become the first ever two-time winner of the show/tournament. He is 12-2 professionally, coming off a win over Timur Valiev in the TUF semi final. Katona is a well-rounded fighter who is known for his cerebral fighting style and his extremely high Fight IQ. He does an excellent job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents. He studies his opponents extensively, but in most of his fights we see him lean on a grappling heavy game plan to grind out decisions. Cody Gibson is 19-8 professionally and 7-2 since he was cut from the UFC back in 2015. He’s well-rounded, with seven of his professional wins coming by knockout and four coming via submission. Gibson had been nursing an MCL injury, so it’s tough to know if he’ll be 100% heading into this match-up. Gibson is going to have a reach advantage here. Still, between Katona’s grappling advantage and the questions around his health I don’t think he’ll have enough to pull off the upset. Brad Katona by Decision

Austin Hubbard -180 vs Kurt Holobaugh +145

• Anthony: The Ultimate Fighter at Lightweight will be decided next as Austin Hubbard takes on Kurt Holobaugh. This should be one of the night’s most competitive fights with these two 155ers going head to head. Holobaugh did fantastic on TUF this season, most notably piecing up Jason Knight on his way into this live finale. His striking appears massively improved from his initial stint in the UFC, landing more punches in combination and now boasting a total of eighteen professional wins by finish. I consider him a very live underdog in what will likely be a matchup with Hubbard contested mostly at kickboxing range. Hubbard does well crowding the distance and grinding on opponents when needed, but Holobaugh’s activity and power should keep Hubbard reacting a bit more than usual. Hubbard can win this fight by staying on his front foot and limiting the activity of Holobaugh. But, if the Louisiana native can start stringing combinations together I see him getting the better of Hubbard and even hurting him as time wears on. A finish from Holobaugh would be ideal but I think damage could edge him a decision if this does end up going a full fifteen. Hubbard is not as deliberate with his shots as Holobaugh and not nearly as active in terms of his volume thrown. Kurt Holobaugh by Decision
• Nick: This match-up represents The Ultimate Fighter Season 31 Tournament Final at lightweight. Austin Hubbard is big for the division. He’s mostly well-rounded, but offensively he doesn’t have any singular standout skill. He has excellent cardio, which isn’t really a surprise as he trains in Colorado with Elevation Fight Team. He was cut from the promotion following a decision loss to Vinc Pichel in 2021, and he has since gone 4-0 (including his time on The Ultimate Fighter). Kurt Holobaugh was cut from the UFC following a loss to Thaigo Moises back in 2019. All of his UFC losses came against an extremely high-level of competition, so it is really no surprise to see he has a chance to regain his roster spot after a solid run for XFC and on The Ultimate Fighter. Holobaugh is primarily a striker. He has a solid chin and moves well at range, but he is most comfortable fighting in the pocket. He strings together effective combinations, he uses all of his limbs well, and seven of his nineteen professional wins have come via KO. He’s also competent on the mat, especially offensively, with nine of his nineteen professional wins coming via submission. This is a tough fight to call, but I’m siding with the underdog. Hubbard should be able to secure takedowns here, but I don’t expect he’ll be able to keep Holobaugh grounded. I expect Holobaugh to be the more dangerous and effective striker here, and he should dictate the pace of this fight whenever it is on the feet. Kurt Holobaugh by Decision

Gregory Rodrigues -350 vs Denis Tiuliulin +275

• Anthony: Next is a middleweight contest between Gregory Rodrigues and Denis Tiuliulin. Rodrigues is prohibitively favored here despite losing by first round knockout in his latest showing. Robocop is a bad man and one of my favorite new fighters to watch given his aggressive style striking and huge power for 185 pounds. That being said he certainly has a suspect Fight IQ with such willingness to exchange haymakers. He throws very high volume combinations with striking accuracy north of 55 percent, making him extremely dangerous to stand and exchange shots with. He can hurt Tiuliulin striking today but we may see a rather good showing from the Russian if this does turn out to be a kickboxing match. Rodrigues will be a much better play if he elects to grapple frequently in this matchup. He is a BJJ black belt under Henrique Machado and very talented when it comes to securing takedown attempts. Tiuliulin has lost three fights since the end of 2020 and all three have come by way of submission. He clearly has a deficiency on the mat and I hope Rodrigues is smart enough to take advantage of that here. I am betting Rodrigues at this number in hopes of him grappling although a win by knockout feels just as likely. Tiuliulin has very poor defensive awareness absorbing on average more than six strikes per minute. Gregory Rodrigues by Round One KO
• Nick: Unlike most Russians on the UFC roster, Tiuliulin.is primarily a striker. Each of his last six professional wins have come via KO. He is 1-2 in the UFC, most recently losing via submission to Jun Yong Park back in February. His defensive grappling is average at best. Rodrigues has a BJJ black belt, but he’s found most of his success just standing and striking at range. He’s massive for the division, but he carries so much muscle that it seems he fades if his fights get into the later rounds. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss as a -300 favorite to Bruno Ferreira. Rodrigues is extremely dangerous offensively, but he telegraphs many of his strikes which leads him open to be countered in chaotic exchanges. Rodrigues should dominate here if he chooses to lean on his grappling, and even if he doesn’t he should be able to stay a step ahead of Tuiliulin on the feet. Gregory Rodrigues by Round One Submission

Brad Tavares -275 vs Chris Weidman +215

• Anthony: The prelims will close with Brad Tavares welcoming back the former middleweight champion Chris Weidman. It has been more than two years since Weidman was in competition after a gruesome leg break sustained in his matchup with Uriah Hall. Weidman went through months of physical therapy to regain fighting form and now looks to complete what would really be an outstanding comeback story. Tavares has been the more active of these two lately although his last octagon appearance ended on the wrong end of a performance bonus. Bruno Silva knocked out Tavares with a knee in April. I expect Tavares to fare better here against a wrestler with far less potent weapons on the feet. Weidman has made a career of wrestling effectively and that will have to be his gameplan in beating Tavares today. While I could see a big, strong, rejuvenated Weidman perhaps pulling off an upset it will be tough given Tavares’ skills when standing. The Hawaiian is a much more sophisticated striker and with 80 percent takedown defense in his career, we may not get to see much more than a single takedown landed on Brad. I am not going to recommend betting Tavares at the current odds but I find it hard to imagine Weidman winning in his return. He cannot afford to make mistakes here early as he tries to establish the proper timing with his hands. Brad Tavares by Decision
• Nick: Brad Tavares is a talented vet who has been ranked at middleweight for years. He is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2019, most recently falling via KO in the first round to Bruno Silva. He does a good job mixing in leg kicks to keep his opponents at range. He works well behind his jab, he throws meaningful shots and we’ve seen his chin tested on multiple occasions. Tavares is a competent wrestler, especially defensively. He has a solid 80 percent takedown defense in the UFC. That’s likely going to be a key to his success in this match-up, as Weidman will most certainly be looking to grapple. Chris Weidman has been out of action since he snapped his shin on a leg-kick against Uriah Hall back in April of 2021. Weidman is one of the better offensive wrestlers in the division as a two-time NCAA Division I All-American. Weidman held the Middleweight Championship from 2013-2015 after capturing it from UFC Hall of Famer Anderson Silva. As decorated as he is, there is no denying the fact that Weidman is far past his athletic prime, having undergone multiple surgeries and recently turning 39-years-old. The line feels wide here, but I do expect Taveres to secure the win. He should be able to mostly keep this fight on the feet where his technical advantages should be dramatic. Brad Tavares by Round Three KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Marlon Vera -200 vs Pedro Munhoz +160

• Anthony: The main card opens with a bantamweight matchup of Chito Vera and Pedro Munhoz. This card is showcasing some great 135ers in addition to the champion and challenger for the belt. Munhoz will make his 20th UFC appearance here, still having never been finished. While Munhoz is known for his fast hands and great boxing, he has begun to slow down a bit at the age of 36. He will fight today as the smaller man should, aggressively brawling inside of the pocket and using his footwork to make Vera miss. It would not surprise me to see Munhoz outland Vera in every round given his career metrics standing. I am however cautious to fade Chito with his power and knack for finishing the fights that he wins. Vera is going to be especially dangerous while switching stances and targeting Munhoz’s upper half with kicks. I expect to see him score at least one knockdown today in what is a much needed win after his last octagon appearance. Chito was beaten handily by Cory Sandhagen this spring and now must get back into the win column to stay relevant in title conversations. I am not very confident betting on Vera but expect him to find a way to win nonetheless. Marlon Vera by Decision
• Nick: Marlon Vera is one of the tougher guys in this division, borderline impossible to put away and he’s shown a serious ability to up his pressure and pace as the fight gets into the later rounds. He’s excellent at striking in the clinch. He works well up against the cage and he’s shown a willingness to mix devastating elbows into his combinations. Vera is considered a slow starter, but he almost always gains momentum as his fights build into the later rounds. Pedro Munhoz has notable wins over Rob Font, Jimmie Rivera, and most recently Chris Gutierrez. He’s extremely well-rounded with a solid wrestling base and surprising power for a bantamweight. In his recent win over Gutierrez, he did an excellent job leaning on his grappling to control the pace of the fight. He did a good job mixing in leg kicks to close distance on Gutierrez and secured takedowns frequently and consistently. Munhoz has never been KO’d professionally, which makes this a more difficult fight for Vera than this line suggests. Still, I see him as the rightful favorite. Munhoz does well when he can keep fighters on their back foot, but that will be very difficult against the aggressive Vera. Marlon Vera by Decision

Mario Bautista -220 vs Da’Mon Blackshear +1754

• Anthony: Next is a bantamweight matchup between Mario Bautista and Da’Mon Blackshear. This is a very short notice booking with Blackshear stepping in for the injured Cody Garbrandt after fighting in Vegas last weekend. Not only did Blackshear win convincingly with a first round submission, it came by the twister. That is a move only successfully executed two other times in UFC history. Certainly I’d say his best attribute is offensively grappling, although Blackshear is well-rounded in all aspects of a fight. He may elect to wrestle here against an opponent like Bautista who seems the more skilled on the feet. With a full camp to his benefit, Bautista is rightfully favored and likely the one to dictate this bout’s pacing. He has won in four consecutive fights and strikes with much more power and speed than Blackshear. I certainly consider Blackshear live in the underdog role here, I just doubt he can execute a wrestling heavy attack after cutting weight for the second time in seven days. He should bring a good fight to Bautista early but I see the better fighter prevailing as this contest gets into rounds two and three. If it is primarily a striking match, Bautista will be the one consistently scoring and winning minutes in the eyes of the judges. Mario Bautista by Round Three KO
• Nick: Bautista is a powerful striker at range. He does a great job managing distance and he uses feints well to set up his combos. While he’s most comfortable standing and trading, he is also a competent grappler as a brown belt in BJJ. He has a solid wrestling base, which he uses to control position against a wide range of opponents. Against good strikers, he can lean on his grappling. Against good grapplers, he can lean on his striking. Da’Mon Blackshear is a former Cage Fury FC Bantamweight Champion. He’s 2-1-1 in the UFC, most recently coming off an impressive win via twister over Jose Johnson just one week ago at UFC Vegas 78. He is fairly well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. He’s dangerous on the mat offensively with a BJJ black belt, and nine of his fourteen professional wins have come via submission. He does a decent job striking at range, but his ability to string together combinations is fairly limited. Blackshear had to cut weight twice in one week, which historically has been a major negative for fighters at this level. The line is getting wide here, but I expect Bautista to stay a step ahead no matter where this one goes. Mario Bautista by Decision

Ian Garry -500 vs Neil Magny +375

• Anthony: The featured bout comes at welterweight with Ian Garry taking on Neil Magny. After originally being slated to face one Geoff Neal, Garry is getting matched here on short notice with the man he called out after his most recent victory. The undefeated Irishman certainly garners a lot of attention fighting on the main card of this Boston pay-per-view. He certainly has the makings of a star in this industry and I think that Garry’s skill does in fact back up all the talk. At just 25 years old he has some of the best precision striking in this division. Garry is incredibly fast with great timing and a very high rate of success while striking. He lands on average 6.85 significant strikes per minute, usually placing these shots exactly where he wants them. His counters are excellent and the aggression from Garry comes in measured, explosive bursts. Magny is a perennial gatekeeper and someone I have made money backing plenty of times before. He can normally dictate the pace of fights by grinding on his opponents and accruing control time along the octagon side. However, someone as long and as skilled as Garry will be very difficult for Magny to corral. In his most recent showings Magny has not fought effectively and I find it hard to imagine him pulling off the upset with such brief notice here. Garry is being built slowly into a legitimate title contender and this matchup is one he can prove he belongs in this division’s top ten. Magny rarely takes a beating in his fights but I am expecting one way traffic here. Garry will land huge kicks and counters whilst jabbing Neil Magny to bits. Ian Garry by Round Three KO
• Nick: Ian Garry enters this fight as a heavily hyped prospect and a former Cage Warriors Welterweight Champion. He’s still developing as a prospect as he’s only 12-0. However, he already seems to be very well rounded. His striking continues to improve dramatically, he has a solid wrestling base, and enough power standing and ability on the mat to find finishes against a wide range of opponents. Garry fights out of an excellent camp via Kill Cliff FC, sharing the mat with the likes of Gilbert Burns, Michael Chandler, and Shavkat Rakhmonov. He’s most recently coming off a career-best win via KO over Daniel Rodriguez. Magny is a rangy striker who arguably does his best work in the clinch.He has a seemingly infinite gas tank and he’s shown an uncanny ability to wear on his opponents and take over as his fights wear on. Magny has solid grappling ability, but he can struggle to get back to his feet once he’s grounded. At his best he’d be live for an upset here, but he seems to be slowing down. Additionally, he’s taking this fight on relatively short notice. Garry’s speed and athleticism should be too much for Magny here. Ian Garry by Round Two KO

Zhang Weili -335 vs Amanda Lemos +260

• Anthony: The co-main event decides the strawweight championship with Zhang Weili looking to retain her belt in a defense against Amanda Lemos. It is hard to deny Lemos a title shot after winning seven of her eight latest fights. Lemos has shown incredibly fast and powerful hands for this division, accruing now two straight wins via finish. She is quick and puts combinations together very well from range. Lemos is also a great counter puncher, although to pull off the upset today it will need to be her pushing the pace and bringing a fight to Weili. There may not be a more complete champion than Magnum Weili who has a phenomenal record at 23-3. The champ is coming off two stellar performances, beating Joanna Jedrzejczyk by spinning backfist in their rematch and submitting Carla Esparza to win back her belt last fall. Very few can compete with her physical strength and aggression once the cage door has been locked. Lemos will cede a serious power advantage to Weili who stands much bulkier and more well proportioned. Weili can blast kicks at the legs of Lemos with little rebuttal from the challenger. Hopefully Weili maintains a sanda style and keeps distance here against a foe with boxing as dangerous as this. Lemos will be headhunting and I expect Weili to fight knowing that. The grappling advantage is also clear for Weili who would likely have her way with Lemos on the mat. Jessica Andrade is the only skilled grappler on Lemos’ resume and that just so happens to be the cause of her most recent loss. Certainly Lemos has a punchers chance but I feel Weili wins this fight eight or nine times out of ten. The performances have been impressive from Lemos sure but the competition has not been anything close to the caliber she faces this evening. Even at -335 I feel Weili is a very strong bet. And Still. Zhang Weili by Round Three Submission
• Nick: Zhang Weili, the current UFC Strawweight Champion, is coming off back to back KO wins over Joanna Jerdzejcyk and Carla Esparza. She’s 23-3 professionally and at 34-years old she is still very much within her athletic prime. Amanda Lemos is an effective striker at range with underrated power for the division. She’s 13-2-1 professionally with eight wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. She most recently won via KO over Marina Rodriguez. She’s a technically sound striker and competent on the mat, but she’s risen through the ranks off her brute strength and power on the feet. Weili has been training under the Hickman Brothers, some of the better coaches in terms of wrestling in the sport. She’s likely to show considerable improvements in her grappling ability, her Fight IQ, and it’s certainly encouraging to know she’s been training with a higher level of athlete than she was at home gyms in China. Weili is going to have a technical striking advantage here, but I do expect she’ll lean on a grappling heavy game plan. Lemos will be dangerous early, but as this fight wears on I see Weili securing takedowns consistently until she finds a finish. And Still. Zhang Weili by Round Three Submission

Aljamain Sterling -260 vs Sean O’Malley +200

• Anthony: Tonight’s main event has Sean O’Malley challenging Aljamain Sterling for the world bantamweight championship. Suga Sean O’Malley is a bonafide star, quickly becoming a household name since debuting on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2017. I am obsessed with his fan friendly style and the high level kickboxing displayed every time he steps into the octagon. It is a classic matchup of striker and grappler as he faces the incumbent Funkmaster Sterling. It is hard to deny the accomplishments of the champion as he now has the most consecutive defenses in this division’s history. Sterling is an elite grappler, mixing world class jiu jitsu with some of the best wrestling at 135 pounds. He is a problem for opponents as soon as he manages to secure the back and I imagine O’Malley gets folded up rather quickly if that gameplan does in fact materialize for Sterling. One or two takedowns could be enough to retain the title given such a drastic gap between these two’s skills on the mat. However, Sterling does rely heavily on that takedown and may struggle to catch O’Malley here in a 30 foot octagon. O’Malley has exceptional footwork and lightning quick reaction time. He is effective from both stances and by constantly moving along the outside, he could force Sterling into sloppy shots or some prolonged striking exchanges. With the fluidity and precision of Sean’s strikes, Sterling could find himself in serious trouble if more than a few minutes of this fight come at range. O’Malley has exceptional length for this division and looks big even next to a massive 135er like the champ. Certainly I consider him a live underdog given the fact that catching Aljo may not be too hard. O’Malley’s feints are elite and I expect him to set up quite a few killshots here as he faces a very sloppy striker. I specifically predict a knee or big overhand early will change the complexion of this fight. O’Malley has hand picked every matchup on his way to the title and I do not find it a coincidence that Aljamain is the one he takes the belt off of, in Boston. And New. Sean O’Malley by Round One KO
• Nick: Sterling usually comes out extremely aggressively. His strikes don’t pack a ton of power, but he’s extremely accurate and does a good job frustrating his opponents at range with his unconventional style. He is primarily a wrestler with excellent takedown ability and BJJ. His best position is on his opponents’ back(s), and he’s changed the meta of the sport with his utilization of the body triangle. Sean O’Malley has a ridiculous amount of hype behind him right now. He has been winning convincingly with highlight reel knockouts, but most of them have come against mediocre competition. He’s extremely fast with phenomenal striking ability and does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. What he lacks in one shot power, he more than makes up for with speed and precision. He has an excellent +3.89 striking differential which is amongst the best on the entire UFC roster. O’Malley carries a mediocre 60% takedown defense in the UFC and Sterling averages more than 2.0 successful takedowns per fifteen minutes. Additionally, O’Malley really hasn’t been tested by anyone near Sterling’s level of offensive wrestling ability. I’m a fan of O’Malley and what he brings to the cage, but I expect he’s overmatched here. Sterling likes to fake level changes a lot to set up takedowns. This should help level the playing field when this fight is standing. Simply, this is a poor stylistic match-up for O’Malley. Sterling’s grappling is going to be a problem for him here. Outside of an unlikely early KO, I don’t see O’Malley doing well here. I expect Sterling to close distance and secure takedowns with relative ease. From there he should be able to find a submission. And Still. Aljamain Sterling by Round Three Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com

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