While it was a long weekend up here in Canada, we’re still staying tuned to all the latest NFL rumblings and looking at how they relate to your Fantasy season.
We’re just over a week into August, and an NFL football game has officially been played. Yes, Zach Wilson arguably the biggest name on the game day rosters, and the refs were put to work early with sloppy play, but it’s another exciting sign that your fantasy drafts are just around the corner.
The game itself didn’t yield any valuable fantasy football information, but don’t worry – we’ve had our eye on training camp reports and put together the latest collection of news and notes from around the league.
Javonte Williams’ remarkable recovery
In case you’ve been blocking out any news from Denver after their disastrous offensive season , to recap – Javonte Williams tore his ACL, LCL and posterolateral corner in his knee on October 2nd of 2022, which immediately cast serious doubts on whether he could even be back on the field by the time training camps began. There were also of course concerns as to whether he would ever be the same explosive player he was in his limited game action up to this point in his career.
Well, not only has Williams managed to avoid the PUP list, but he’s also been cleared for contact by the Broncos medical team, and has “stunned” everyone with his recovery. To the point where Sean Payton is already saying he will feature in some preseason games.
"Miraculous" is not hyperbole when referring to his recovery.
Everyone is stunned. https://t.co/u0UPV7APum
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) August 5, 2023
Fantasy football owners are taking notice. Williams’s ADP was dipping to the low 70’s/early 80’s a month ago, but he’s been on a steady rise since the start of camp, and is currently sitting at 63. Williams obviously comes with some risk, so watching how he looks on the field if/when he does get into some preseason games is important. Payton also famously loves to utilize a 2-back system, and personally recruited Samaje Perine to Denver to help recreate his offenses from New Orleans. That being said, the ceiling for Williams far exceeds the ceiling for the other Running backs being taken around that spot. He is currently going after David Montgomery (DET), Isiah Pacheco (KC) and Rachaad White (TB) – all players who may have safer floors than Williams, but much much lower ceilings.
Drafting in fantasy football is all about managing risk. But if you have some solid floor picks in place at running back already, Williams is the guy you want to target for his potential explosive upside.
Alvin Kamara’s suspension and Kareen Hunt Visiting Saints
In case you missed it, Alvin Kamara has been suspended for the first three games of this season due to an altercation outside of a Las Vegas nightclub in 2022. The suspension came as no surprise, and the length was around what most people were expecting. Many believed it would be 2-4 games, and the NFL ultimately split the difference.
Getting off to a good start is crucial in fantasy, and holding down a roster spot for someone who’s guaranteed to miss at least 4 games (including the Saints week 11 bye) makes it much harder on your overall roster construction. The Saints drafted Kendre Miller in the 3rd round and signed touchdown vulture Jamaal Williams as security for the inevitable suspension.
It’s interesting to note, however, that the Saints then brought in Kareem Hunt this past week with the presumed intention of signing the for Cleveland Brown running back. Hunt’s extended free agency has gone largely unnoticed amidst the growing collection of disgruntled running backs across the league. But the now 28 year old back put up respectable numbers, particularly in the running game, despite being essentially benched for the latter half of the season after asking the organization for a trade. The potential signing may be a direct result of Eno Benjamin’s injury (torn achilles), but he wasn’t really expected to make that much of an impact, even with the Kamara suspension. It’s complete speculation on my part, but bringing in a bigger name running back feels more like the Saints aren’t overly pleased with either Jamaal Williams work in camp, or are losing faith in either Miller’s ability to immediately impact the offense from week 1 or his overall health as he continues to work back from previous injuries.
The Saints running back room has all the makings of a fantasy mess that you’ll want to avoid. Miller still has value as a dart throw late pick, and if the Saints don’t end up signing anyone, could be your week one starter. But with Williams poaching red zone targets, his ceiling is quite low. Kamara is being drafted way too high when you factor in the lost games and his declining play over the past couple of seasons. There’s a world where Hunt gets signed and can be used as a desperation flex in PPR leagues due to his pass catching abilities, but he hasn’t been a true fantasy asset for quite a while.
Nick Chubb becoming a 3-down back?
Like the Cleveland Browns did, we’ll move on from Kareem Hunt now to embrace the potential of a 3-down back Nick Chubb. His ADP currently sits at 11, and he’s on average the 6th running back coming off of the board. He finished last season as the RB #5 in ½ PPR, largely due to his 1525 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
With Hunt on the team, Chubb only managed to be on the field for over 70% of his team’s offensive snaps twice the entire season – he was much more often in the 55% range. Hunt’s departure leaves 123 rushes and 44 targets to be filled. While there’s no chance Chubb takes all of those touches, he’ll most certainly improve on his 37 targets this past season without being subbed off the field in obvious passing situations.
The only running back to finish in the top 10 in fantasy scoring last season who had less targets than Chubb was Jamaal Williams and his 17 touchdowns. Even Derrick Henry was targeted more than Chubb.
Am I telling you to go and spend your 1st overall pick on Nick Chubb this year? No. But what I am telling you is that with Chubb’s proven efficiency running the ball (5.0 yards per carry) to go with an increased workload and a role in the passing offense, his ceiling has the potential to explode this coming season. I have seen him fall in plenty of drafts into the 2nd round, but I consider him a valuable pick even at the #6 spot. He has the potential to secure your RB1 spot for the season and is a great 1st round building block.
If you had any doubts about Nick Chubb… pic.twitter.com/ywTHizoMaD
— ESPN Cleveland (@ESPNCleveland) August 7, 2023
Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud debut dates confirmed
Dynasty managers will get their first looks at the top 2 quarterbacks taken in this past year’s draft, as the Carolina Panthers and the Houston Texans have both publicly stated that their respective new franchise quarterbacks will be the starters for their team’s opening preseason games. Young and the Panthers will take on the New York Jets on Saturday, August 12th at 4:00pm ET, while Stroud and the Texans take on Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots on Thursday, August 10th at 7:00pm.
Young has reportedly been impressive in training camp thus far, aside from the latest practice where Young faced pressure for the first time, and was visibly frustrated while trying to run a 2-minute drill.
Young has noticeably been taking full advantage of having former NFL quarterbacks Frank Reich (head coach) and Josh McCowan (quarterbacks coach) available to him to pick their brains, and appreciates the way that McCowan can take the X’s and O’s and relate them to real game situations that he dealt with throughout his career. Young will likely be accompanied by most of the Panthers 1st team offense during the duration of his time in the game.
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans told the NFL network that the #2 pick C.J. Stroud would be starting over Davis Mills after the two have been splitting 1st team reps for most of training camp until recent practices. While Young was named the regular season starter early in camp, there was a presumed competition for the job in Houston. Stroud seems to have taken the lead and could perhaps earn the opening day starting role with a strong performance against the Patriots.
Neither of the quarterbacks are expected to play an extended amount of time in their games, but seeing them take the field for the first time on what they hope to be long and productive careers is always an exciting time for these young men.
Three Teams in on Zeke – Cowboys, Patriots, Jets
With the running back situation far from settled in the NFL, the latest rumours are that 3 teams are still vying for the services of Ezekiel Elliott, including his former club.
The Patriots have notably brought in a few big name veteran backs since the opening of training camp, and have been limiting Rhamondre Stevenson’s reps to keep him fresh. Elliott seems like he would be an excellent fit with Belichick and the Patriots, despite losing a step as he gets older. He’s an excellent blocker, a strong pass catcher and rarely fumbles – all aspects of the game that Belichick requires from his backs. Elliott will likely never become overly fantasy relevant again, but there’s some serious concern regarding Stevenson’s usage if he does sign with the Pats. Stevenson’s ADP is currently 25th, and is the RB11 off the board. So if you’re investing some serious draft capital to add him to your roster, having some certainty that he’ll remain on the field in key moments would be nice.
Dalvin Cook to New York seemed like a sure thing after his meeting with the Jets, but over a week later that chatter has cooled dramatically, as apparently the Jets are looking into their back-up plans. Elliott has been a name coming up out of the big apple, and it seems more and more likely that the Jets still have concerns regarding Breece Hall’s health. At least to at start the season. They have some intriguing young backs behind Hall and Michael Carter at the position, but for a team who appears to be going all in for a Super Bowl, adding a strong veteran presence to solidify the locker room seems to be a priority.
The Dallas Cowboys re-entered the Zeke rumour mill recently as well, and a big factor in that could very well be the overall lack of size on their roster at the position. Tony Pollard is the clear #1, but at 6’0” and 209 lbs, he isn’t going to be mistaken as a bruising finisher. Malik Davis is 5’11” and 202 lbs, and Deuce Vaughn is only 5’6” and 176 lbs. Size isn’t everything in today’s NFL, but it’s still is a key factor in short yardage situations. Elliott (6’0” 228 lbs) would give that room an element it’s currently missing. Elliott was released by the team in March in an effort to create more cap space, but he seems to understand that the move itself was financially motivated and doesn’t harbour any ill will towards the organization, clearing the way for a potential reunion.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Erik Drost. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.
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