The amount of rookies who truly break out in their 1st year in the NFL is extremely low. You need to be an elite talent to make a major impact going from college to the pro level. But expectations begin to rise when these players enter their 2nd year in the league.

   In fantasy, finding value picks later in the draft is crucial, and taking a shot on players who may have not excelled during their rookie season could be the difference between making the playoffs or missing them altogether. Here is a quick look at some players struggled in their inaugural season, but could be in line for a major jump in year 2. We’re all well aware of the Potential explosive seasons coming from the likes of Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker, but here we aim to shine a light on the more underrated players from the 2022 draft class.

Sam Howell (QB) – Washington Commanders – ADP 181

   The Sam Howell experiment might not last very long in Washington, but from a fantasy perspective, the upside is tantalizing. Howell isn’t being drafted in most regular formats, so he’s a no risk, high reward dart throw, particularly in 2-QB leagues. If your opponents all use premium draft capital securing their 2 starters, look to snag Howell late. His game is predicated around 2 components that are invaluable in a fantasy quarterback – he’s a sneaky good runner, and he lives to throw the ball deep.

   Washington’s 5th round draft pick is competing with Jacoby Brisset to win the starter’s job. And if he takes control, he’ll be surrounded by some enticing offensive weapons in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson to help him ease into the NFL. In his first (and only) NFL start, Howell finished as the QB8, scoring a touchdown on his opening drive and throwing a 55 Yard pass to McLaurin in the 3rd quarter. It’s hard to say that Howell will be a top 12 QB every week, but there’s definitely some intriguing upside, so it’s worth using a roster spot on the high potential quarterback.

Jahan Dotson (WR) – Washington Commanders – ADP 90

   Since we have already mentioned his name, might as well get right into Jahan Dotson, the Commanders exciting 2nd year wide receiver. Dotson’s rookie season as a whole was nothing to write home about, but what he showed across the final 6 weeks after returning from injury gave us a window into the immense potential the athletic receiver possesses.

   In weeks 13-18 of last season, Dotson ranked 20th in target share (24%), third in end zone target share (50%), and 13th in yards per route run. Dotson is a highly skilled receiver who’s dealt with poor quarterback play dating back to his college days, but still finds ways to produce time and time again. He’s one of those receivers that always seems to get open in the end zone. There’s no mistaking that Terry McLaurin is the WR1 on this offense, but it’s likely that by the end of the season Dotson can creep his way into being a 1b as opposed to a WR2.

   His ADP is 40 spots lower than McLaurin’s (according to fantasypros), so snagging him almost 4 rounds later gives you an opportunity to build up other parts of your roster early. Dotson is someone you should be targeting in every one of your drafts for where he is currently going.

Jameson Williams (WR) – Detroit Lions – ADP 117

   A true draft and stash player, Williams will miss the first 6 games of the season due to a suspension related to gambling while at the team’s facility. Despite that, Williams remains an extremely talented receiver who enters his sophomore season with a ton of upside.

   His rookie season was basically a write-off as he worked his way back from major injury (ACL tear), but once he gets onto the field in 2023 he’ll be more mature, fully healthy and ready to dominate as a WR2 opposite of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams’ first NFL catch was a 41 yard touchdown where he simply roasted the coverage, just a sign of what’s to come with the former 12th overall pick.

   While there’ve been some reports out of camp of late that he’s been “fighting the ball” so to speak on contested catches, remember that reporters questioned whether Ja’Marr Chase could create separation at the NFL level after watching him in rookie camp as well. If he’s still available in your draft in the 9th or 10th round, there are worse ways to spend a pick than on a potential late season breakout star with elite talent. Just make sure you have the roster space to hold onto him.

Treylon Burks (WR) – Tennessee Titans – ADP 84

   Burks was in line to be the undisputed WR1 for a team that notoriously doesn’t throw the ball often, until the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins, so there are obvious concerns regarding his usage this coming season.

   He missed a lot of time as a rookie due to injury, but showed flashes of potential and should be an improved player in 2023. Hopkins has always been a lead dog, but at 31 years old, is starting to show signs of wearing down. Having Hopkins on the field will actually open things up for Burks as he won’t have to face the opposing CB1, and, when Hopkins inevitably misses time, Burks will be more established and have adjusted to the pace of the NFL. Burks has the build to be a true red-zone threat (6’2”, 225 lbs) and is great at making contested catches. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to vastly outplay his current ADP and have the breakout season that the Titans were hoping for when they drafted him 18th overall.

Christian Watson (WR) – Green Bay Packers – ADP 57

   One could argue that Watson already had his breakout during an impressive 4 week stretch in 2022 where he totaled 7 TDs, and 313 receiving yards on 27 receptions. But with the Packers in the midst of a rebuild after moving on from Aaron Rodgers, Watson enters the season as the true WR1.

   His impressive stretch has driven his cost up as well, so if you truly believe in Watson you’re likely looking at spending a 4th or 5th round pick on a player with an extremely high ceiling, but a low floor. We don’t know what the Packers have in Jordan Love, and it’s almost impossible to expect him to maintain the pace he set from weeks 10-13. But he’ll be unrivaled in target share and has big play potential on every snap. It’s not absurd to believe that his targets will double this coming season, so even if he has a significant drop off in touchdown rate, his overall numbers should balance out as a strong WR2/flex option.

Christian Watson working on ball security at #Packers practice. pic.twitter.com/Ho4eT0qXbY

— Scott Grodsky (@ScottGrodsky) August 1, 2023

John Metchie III (WR) – Houston Texans – ADP 199

   I might be putting myself out on a limb with this one, but the 2022 44th overall pick John Metchie III could be the waiver wire pickup of the year in 2023. He’s mostly going undrafted after missing the entirety of the 2022 season after battling a form of leukemia, but has been medically cleared to return to football for 2023.

   He’s already off to a slow start, injuring his hamstring during OTA’s, but has recently been cleared to return to training camp. Metchie needs all the snaps he can get with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud taking control of the offense.

  With Brandin Cooks now in Dallas, the Texans are looking for a #1 receiver to step up this year, and Metchie has the potential to be their big play guy going forward. Robert Woods is a super reliable slot threat, but at this point in his career, we know what he is, and Nico Collins has struggled to stay on the field thus far. New head coach Demeco Ryans bet big on the team taking a big step this coming season, trading away their 2024 1st round pick, so they need to get the offense up and running as fast as possible. And what better way to do it than relying on their speedster Metchie.

George Pickens (WR) – Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP 83

   If I took a poll of 1000 fantasy football fans, I would bet that the percentage that knew George Pickens finished his rookie season with just over 800 receiving yards would be below 20%. He had a few highlight reel catches, but it seemed for the most part that his season largely went under the radar – likely due to his quarterback’s inability to throw touchdowns last season.

   It’s almost a certainty that this won’t be the case again this coming season – either Kenny Pickett improves dramatically, or the Steelers make the decision to go another route. Pittsburgh is always looking to win, and if Pickett can’t get the ball to their skilled players in the end zone, they’ll be forced to move on from him.

   The Steelers de facto #1 receiver Diontae Johnson only finished with 882 (and 0 touchdowns), so it’s clear that Pickens has already started to carve out a nice role in the offense. Any kind of improvement in the scoring department will benefit Pickens immensely. Pickens might still be a risky pick at the end of the 6th round, but if he starts to drop in your draft, snatch him up and rely on one of the best coaching units in the NFL to make vast improvements to this offense. 

James Cook (RB) – Buffalo Bills – ADP 80

   Nyheim Hines was brought over in a midseason trade with the Colts to take over the pass catching duties at running back, but he never seemed to be able to get settled into the Bills offense. Unfortunately for him, he’ll now miss the entire 2023 season, opening up a massive opportunity for James Cook to further expand his role in the offense.

   The Bills did add a touchdown vulture in Damien Harris, but Cook is the more explosive back and I truly feel like the Bills are going to try their hardest to limit Josh Allen’s rushing attempts to preserve his health over the long term. Cook was 6th amongst running backs with carries of 20 or more yards, so while he might not be a true red zone threat, he has big play potential every time he touches the ball. He finished last season with only 110 touches (89 rushes, 21 receptions), and averaged 6.2 yards per touch – so imagine what he can do with an increased workload. Snatching him up in the 6th round seems like fools gold with the potential Cook has to break out this season.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE) – Tennessee Titans – ADP 120

   Having 2 Titans receiving weapons in an article about offensive breakout players seems ludicrous, but Okonkwo deserves mentioning. Almost no rookie tight end steps into the NFL and has success. But Okonkwo popped in the second half of last season, scoring 10 or more points in 4 of his final 6 games.

   The Titans look to actually be interested in the passing game this coming season, and Okonkwo gives them a big, athletic option in the middle of the field. He finished with the 5th most yards after contact among tight ends on only 32 receptions (the 4 above him had at least 60 catches). With Austin Hooper moving on and the team not prioritizing the position in free agency or the draft, Okonkwo has a clear path for a massive increase in targets this season. He’s shown what he can do with the ball in his hands, so if you don’t like spending big capital on tight ends, Okonkwo is usually available in the final few rounds of the draft. There are definitely worse dart throws being taken than Okonkwo.

Greg Dulcich (TE) – Denver Broncos – ADP 131

   I wasn’t going to include Dulcich in this article until late Monday afternoon when the devastating news came out that WR Tim Patrick tore his achilles and will miss his 2nd consecutive season. While he doesn’t play the same position, Patrick does his best work in the middle of the field, exactly where Dulcich thrives, so there was bound to be some overlap.

   With Patrick gone, Dulcich has the chance to step up and play a bigger role in Sean Payton’s new offense. He notoriously loves to get his tight ends involved (see Jimmy Graham’s career), and Russell Wilson has always been someone who likes to target his tight ends. Like Okonkwo, Dulcich can be had with your last pick in the draft (and sometimes even off the waiver wire), so there isn’t much risk there. Despite only playing in 10 games, Dulcich finished 3rd on the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and yards per reception. There’s definite potential for a sophomore breakout for the former 3rd round pick.

-Devon Gallant

Twitter: @DevGallant

Photo: Tennessee Titans. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.

The post 2023 Sophomore Breakout Candidates appeared first on Dynes Pressbox.