3 Bold Predictions as MLB’s Second Half Begins 

   The 2023 All-Star break has come and passed, meaning it’s time to look ahead at the upcoming second half of the season. 

   There was no shortage of first-half surprises, especially when looking at the standings, as several contenders emerged unexpectedly, including the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks. 

   More parity across the league is always a positive. That, however, will likely complicate the trade market leading up to the Aug. 1st deadline as there appear to be fewer sellers this year. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be fireworks over these next two-plus weeks. 

   As for what else may unfold, here are three bold second-half predictions as the regular season resumes with a full slate of games on Friday. 

Cardinals Set Sellers Market 

   Heading into this season, the St. Louis Cardinals had their eyes set on winning the NL Central Division for a second consecutive season. Instead, as the second-half kicks off, the conversation surrounding them has shifted to becoming sellers at the trade deadline. 

   With a disappointing 38-52 record, sitting last in the division, the organization has no choice but to pivot and try again in 2024. Thus, they’ll be looking to reset their roster in hopes of better fortune around this time next season. 

   So what might that look like? Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has already stated that trades will happen, though they might not include “household names,” likely signalling that Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are safe. 

   Beyond that duo, the Cardinals will undoubtedly field offers on rentals, such as Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton. Though, if they aim to set the market, their sell-off must stretch even deeper than that. 

   The Chicago White Sox, another underperforming organization looking to reset, may end up as St. Louis’ main competitor on the trade front. Since neither is likely to part with core items, whoever sells more players could finish with a greater total return. 

   With that in mind, let’s assume the Cardinals also move Adam Wainwright, whose contract includes a full no-trade clause. In doing so, the 41-year-old could join a playoff contender and compete for a second World Series ring one final time before retiring. 

   It’d also make sense to trade infielder Paul DeJong considering his contract includes two club options in 2024 ($12.5 million) and ‘25 ($15 million). Tyler O’Neill, a free agent after next season, could also find himself playing elsewhere beyond Aug. 1st in this scenario. 

   St. Louis’ roster retool wouldn’t stop there, as one of Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan or Dylan Carlson would be made expendable in exchange for a controllable impact starting pitcher – perhaps one from Miami’s loaded staff. 

Reds Win NL Central 

   As the second half opens, the Reds lead the NL Central by a slim margin, holding a one-game advantage over the second-place Milwaukee Brewers – a position they won’t surrender down the stretch. 

   Cincinnati, which hasn’t made the playoffs since 2020, is in a decent spot to capture its first division title in over a decade. And, to increase those chances, management will add a few key pieces – ones under contract beyond 2023 – at the trade deadline. 

   The Reds have been energized since top prospect Elly De La Cruz arrived at the majors on June 6th, and the NL Rookie of the Year candidate’s value speaks for itself, as his 1.2 fWAR sits second on the team since his call-up. 

   Others have helped carry the freight as well, including Matt McLain (team leader in fWAR among position players), Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Jake Fraley, T.J. Friedl and Tyler Stephenson. 

   Even Joey Voto has played a crucial role since returning from the injured list, as the 39-year-old has 14 hits in 17 games this season, seven of which have been home runs. But he’s also been an integral leader off the field, as well. 

   Starting pitching, however, remains the Reds’ biggest weakness, with their starters featuring the third-highest ERA (5.69) and FIP (5.01) in the majors. Closer Alexis Díaz could also use additional support in the bullpen, which ranks 27th in strikeout-to-walk rate differential (10.9 percent). 

   After some deadline day acquisitions, think Kyle Hendricks and Mark Leiter Jr. from the Chicago Cubs, the Reds will hold off the Brewers en route to their first NL Central title since 2012. 

Orioles Add at Trade Deadline, Pursuit of Rays Falls Short

   Coming off a breakout first half, Baltimore continues leading the AL Wild Card race out of the All-Star break and surrounds its talented young core with multiple headline-worthy trade acquisitions leading up to the end of July. 

   First, the Orioles will augment their starting rotation, which ranks in the bottom half of the majors in ERA (4.48), FIP (4.49), innings pitched (474) and fWAR (4.4) this season. But they won’t pursue just any ordinary pitcher; they’ll target the group of Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito, Eduardo Rodriguez and Flaherty. 

   By acquiring one of these front-line starters, if not more, management improves an already well-crafted group headlined by Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells. It also paves the way for top prospect Grayson Rodriguez to play a pivotal role in September. 

   Baltimore’s front office then moves on to the bullpen, adding Hicks to the mix in a deal with St. Louis, inserting another potent arm alongside Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano at the backend. 

   Despite these moves, the Orioles – sitting two games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for top spot in the AL East entering the second half – will struggle to overcome their remaining schedule (.514, tied with the Rockies for the toughest in the majors) and remain second in the division. 

   They will, however, secure the first wild-card seed and face off against either the Houston Astros or Toronto Blue Jays – a potential rematch of the 2016 AL series. 

-Thomas Hall

Twitter: @ThomasHall85

Photo: Blackngold29. This file is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.

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