UFC Vegas 75: Vettori vs Cannonier – 6.17.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

   Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 75: Vettori vs Cannonier. The UFC is back in Las Vegas this weekend for another slate of exciting matchups at the Apex. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

   As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every Fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 126-99-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
• Nick: 144-81-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-16-2023 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Modestas Bukauskas -200 vs Zac Pauga +160

• Anthony: The card today open’s with light heavyweights Zac Pauga and Modestas Bukauskas. This is the second UFC stint for Bukauskas after a brief run back in Cage Warriors. He shocked a lot of people by beating Tyson Pedro this spring, and now sits in the position of winning four fights in a row after dropping the three bouts prior. Compared to Pauga you will notice Bukauskas is a tactician. He is far more developed in terms of kickboxing skill. Pauga is a big 205er with a great jab and some consistent activity, I just have concerns regarding how green he is at a modest 6-1. Having watched Bukauskas breeze through plenty of mid level competition in Europe, I do not think Pauga poses much of a test for him in this spot. Bukauskas may not be the more active striker of these two but his techniques will be landing cleaner and with more confidence than those of Pauga. I see him controlling this fight from start to finish, whether we see a judge’s decision or Pauga fall to the mat once again. The last loss for Pauga came via a left jab thrown by Mohammed Usman. Bukauskas is a much sharper striker than can certainly hit just as hard. Modestas Bukauskas by Decision 
• Nick: Bukauskas is a powerful striker with a massive frame for a light heavyweight. He is 6’3 with a 78-inch reach. He fights even longer than that, as he keeps a wide stance both striking and defending against takedowns. His greatest strength is his powerful striking, but he seems to leave his hands down which leaves him vulnerable against other powerful punchers. Zac Pauga is just 6-1 professionally ,but he fights out of an excellent camp via Elevation Fight Team, where he is one of the main training partners for heavyweight contender Curtis Blaydes. Pagua lacks some power, but he is technically sound on the feet, he puts out decent volume, and he continues to show improvements in his grappling abilities. This is a relatively low level match-up which makes it a difficult fight to call. Bukauskas is the more potent finisher, but Pauga should have a durability and cardio advantage. My confidence is low here, but I expect Pauga can make this a boring fight and pull it out via decision. Zac Pauga by Decision

Ronnie Lawrence -190 vs Dan Argueta +155

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at bantamweight between Ronnie Lawrence and Dan Argueta. It is quite the mirror match with both fighters largely relying on wrestling and grappling to realize the success they have seen thus far. They are similar in their approach to fighting as well as their career thus far, pairing ten professional fights with rather extensive amateur records. Lawrence is without a doubt the better fighter in my mind. He is far more aggressive with his takedowns and jiu jitsu, averaging more than two shots landed per round in the UFC. Argueta is a bit better than Lawrence when it comes to maintaining position but we have yet to see him tested against another grappler of his caliber. Lawrence has faced the tougher tests thus far inside of the octagon and I view him as the rightful favorite in this bout. Ronnie Lawrence by Decision
• Nick: Lawrence is a highly regarded prospect at 135 who puts a serious pace on his opponents. He is well-rounded and can finish a fight in a number of ways. He has shown increasingly crisp striking with good head movement and footwork, but his greatest strength is certainly his powerful and relentless wrestling ability. Lawrence is coming off an ugly loss to Saidyokub Kakhramonov, a fight in which he was a heavy favorite going in. Daniel Argueta is primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base. Four of his nine professional wins have come via submission. He’s a decent striker, but he has very short arms. He has decent power, but he’s far from technical on the feet and he struggles to close distance against longer/lankier opponents. I expect Argueta to have success early here, but as this fight wears on I see Lawrence’s pace and pressure turning the tide. The line feels a bit wide here but Lawrence is the better striker and should have a considerable cardio advantage. Ronnie Lawrence by Decision

Tereza Bleda -240 vs Gabriella Fernandes +190

• Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight fight between Gabriella Fernandes and Terez Bleda. Both women are coming off losses in their UFC debut and I have a difficult time gauging how this matchup likely plays out. Fernandes is primarily a striker looking to compete with most opponents inside of the pocket. She is an opponent that likely matches the energy of Bleda but not necessarily the technical skill set. Fernandes has fought the much softer level of competition on her way into the UFC. Bleda seems quality at just 21 years old, pairing solid offense standing with strong wrestling as needed. She certainly is more physically gifted than Fernandes and likely the woman who can land more meaningful shots. I will not get to the betting window with Bleda a -240 favorite but I do see her getting her hand raised here today. Tereza Bleda by Decision 
• Nick: Tereza Bleda was dominated last time out in her UFC debut, but that fight came against an extremely tough out in Natalia Silva. Bleda has a solid wrestling base and she’s strong for the division. She’s a capable striker, but she telegraphs most of her shots and it’s rare we see her string together lengthy combinations. Fernandes is also coming off a UFC debut loss, falling via decision to Jasmine Jasudavicius. Fernandes is primarily a striker, but most of her recent success has come on the mat as each of her last two wins have come via submission. This is a tough fight to call as both fighters are inexperienced at this level. While I don’t like the price, I do see Bleda as the rightful favorite as the stronger and more effective grappler in this match-up. Tereza Bleda by Decision

Denys Bondar -130 vs Carlos Hernandez +110

• Anthony: This should be a very fun flyweight matchup with Carlos Hernandez set to face Denys Bondar. While Bondar entered the UFC with a lot of hype surrounding him, we saw that quickly dwindle after suffering a submission loss in his debut bout. The credentialed grappler has 11 professional wins by submission but also now a loss to Malcolm Gordon that saw his arm suffer a clean break. Perhaps Bondar can be had at a discount today based on that lackluster performance but I do believe Hernandez to be another tough matchup for the Ukrainian fighter. Wrestling and counter grappling are some of Hernandez’ best attributes, paired with better hands than that of Bondar. He is very quick to escape tough grappling scenarios as is the case with most athletes at 125 pounds. I imagine the team at Valle Flow Striking has a gameplan here today to subdue the threat of Bondar connecting on his submission attempts. Hernandez is my pick although it is not a very confident one. He will need to keep Bondar at range for portions of this fight, proving that his boxing is superior. Carlos Hernandez by Decision
• Nick: Bondar is well-rounded with eleven of his sixteen professional wins coming via submission and five coming via KO. He has been out of action since February of 2022, after he suffered a major arm injury in a loss to Malcolm Gordon. Bondar has surprising power for his frame on the feet, a piston of a left hand, and he usually does a good job forcing his opponents to fight at a torrid pace. Herndandez is primarily a striker. He has excellent footwork, a high guard, and he throws very tight combinations in which he works well behind heavy kicks. He’s coming off a tough loss to Alan Nascimento, a fight in which he was dramatically outgrappled and ultimately submitted in the middle of the second round. Given Bondar’s long injury layoff and the fact his resume is mostly suspect, I’ll back Hernandez as the underdog here. He should be the more dangerous grappler in scrambles and he’s shown his cardio can be weaponized later in fights. I expect he’ll be the higher volume striker, I expect he can steal this one on the scorecards. Carlos Hernandez by Decision

Christian Quinonez -150 vs Kyung Ho Kang +120

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at men’s bantamweight between Kyung Ho Kang and Christian Quinonez. I find this matchup extremely volatile with Quinonez’ yet to prove quite how high his ceiling may be.The young prospect has had some great showing already, stopping Vinicius de Oliveira and most recently Khalid Taha last fall. He is a great striker with excellent control of distance and some very fast hands. Quinonez lands 5.21 significant strikes per minute compared to just 2.99 of Kyng Ho Kang. I expect Kang to sit down on a few clean shots here but overall Quinonez will be the more efficient fighter, landing more combinations at a much better clip. Kang could elect to grapple and control Quinonez here today but I am reluctant to rely upon Kang wrestling as his last successful takedown came way back in 2019. I have struggled to get a good read on Kang but it does appear the 35 year old is starting to wane past his prime. Quinonez is likely to get the win here but I see Kang holding his own and at the very least lasting to a judge’s decision. Christian Quinonez by Decision
• Nick: Quinonez is fairly well-rounded, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top-level competition. He’s coming off an impressive debut win over a tough out in Khalid Taha, but that was Taha’s third loss in a row and he was quickly cut from the promotion following that fight. Quinonez throws powerful strikes and he has offensive upside in grappling exchanges, but defensively it seems his skills are still far from refined. Kang works behind a powerful jab. He’s a highly technical striker with excellent footwork and head movement, but he’s been inconsistent at the UFC level in spite of his physical gifts. Kang fights long, he does a good job using his offense to keep his opponents at range. That will be important for him here against a fighter in Quinonez who can be dangerous when closing distance. Kang should be the better grappler here, but I’m not confident he leans on that part of his game. Regardless, I expect his experience to shine through. He’s the better fighter defensively and we’ve seen him succeed at a much higher level. This is a low confidence play but there is value on the underdog. Kyung-Ho Kang by Decision

Alessandro Costa -265 vs Jimmy Flick +210

• Anthony: The prelims conclude with a flyweight matchup of Alessandro Costa and Jimmy Flick. Despite being badly finished in his most recent octagon appearance, I see value in Jimmy Flick today with odds closing as wide as +210. The BJJ black belt has 14 professional wins by submission and figures to be a test for just about anyone when the fight inevitably hits the mat. Costa is the more crisp and powerful striker of these two, but he also relies rather heavily on his wrestling once the cage door locks. Costa has displayed great understanding of top pressure and accruing control time while grappling but he is not always the most risk averse in these exchanges. Flick transitions with great speed and I worry about Costa leaving himself exposed for a finish even if he does get Flick laying flat on his back. Certainly I am concerned about Flick’s durability and willingness to eat clean shots, but at odds this wide I still want to gamble backing him. I see him engaging with Costa on the mat early in the fight, ultimately finding his own win by finish. Jimmy Flick by Round One Submission
• Nick: Jimmy Flick has extremely advanced BJJ ability, and is a former LFA flyweight champion. His striking isn’t terrible, but he has a questionable chin and durability, as five of his six professional losses have come via KO. Costa is explosive with surprising power for a flyweight, coming off a debut loss to a potential title contender in Amir Albazi. Albazi ran through him in that fight, but that came on short notice against one of the better fighters in the world at 125 lbs. Costa is relatively well rounded with three of his twelve professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. Flick will be very dangerous if he can take this fight to the mat, but Costa showed excellent takedown defense against a much better wrestler in Albazi. Alessandro Costa by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Muslim Salikhov -190 vs Nicolas Dalby +155

• Anthony: The main card opens with a welterweight bout between Muslim Salikhov and Nicolas Dalby. With both men approaching 40 years of age I am not expecting the best showcase, but each man has realized some recent success here competing in their late career. Dalby has won two fights in a row, outworking Warlley Alves and Claudio Silva. He is a well rounded athlete with a good lead left hand and the ability to mix in takedowns as they are needed. While Dalby is not nearly as big as Salikhov he does have tremendous cardio and durability making him an interesting underdog selection today. Salikhov is a very skilled opponent with the ability to mix wrestling with high level Kung Fu. He will be the fighter landing the cleaner and more jarring shots here today but I do worry about Salikhov’s ability to compete if this fight does get into the latter rounds. Dalby is known for his excellent workrate and I see Salikhov quickly tiring if unable to find an early finish tonight. Dalby also has great defensive awareness when facing orthodox strikers. All four of his losses in the UFC have come facing southpaw opponents. This is not my most confident pick by any means but I will take a chance on Dalby here as the sizable underdog. Nicolas Dalby by Decision
• Nick: Nicolas Dalby is fairly well rounded, but most of his success has come through his strong wrestling base. He’s decent on the feet, but doesn’t throw much volume. He can be dangerous offensively, but defensively he is often there to be countered as he throws looping power shots rather than tight compact combinations. Muslim Salikhov is an excellent striker with a solid chin and a lot of power behind his shots. He’s a former kickboxer and fairly one-dimensional, but he’s good enough on the feet to hang with almost anyone in the division. He throws a wide-range of diverse strikes, including a lot of spinning attacks and high kicks. He recently changed camps to the American Top Team to focus more on his wrestling. Dalby carries momentum into this match-up as he’s coming off back-to-back wins over Claudio Silva and Warlley Alves. He’s a dangerous underdog here, especially if he can get his grappling going. However, Salikhov should be the much cleaner striker in exchanges. We’ve seen him dropped many times before, I expect Salkhov can catch him relatively early here. Muslim Salikhov by Round One KO

Manuel Torres -185 vs Nikolas Motta +150

• Anthony: Next is a bout at lightweight between Manuel Torres and Nikolas Motta. This is a fight I have gone back and forth on with Motta, an extremely tempting underdog. I have always been a fan of Motta, excited about his defensive awareness and ability to land big shots. I just view him as a few steps behind his opponent Torres in terms of technical skill. Torres is really a sniper, landing at a high rate while throwing out much more volume than Motta. Historically Torres has struggled only with grapplers while Motta’s kryptonite appears to be guys that hit him cleanly on the feet. In what is likely going to be a stand up affair, Torres figures to get the better of Motta in a majority of striking exchanges. He is longer and more agile than Motta and I see Torres proving to have the better kickboxing of these two. Motta cannot be there when the punches land today. Manuel Torres by Round Two KO
• Nick: Nikolas Motta is a fairly technical striker who uses all of his limbs well. He doesn’t carry much one-shot power, but he does a good job extending his combinations as a means to hurt his opponents on the feet. He is 1-1 in the UFC, most recently securing a win via KO over Cameron VanCamp. He fights out of an excellent vamp via Xtreme Couture, and he has shown considerable improvements in all facets of his game over his last several fights. Manuel Torres is dangerous on the feet offensively, but he eats a lot of damage in exchanges. He’s coming off an impressive win via KO in his UFC debut over Frank Camacho, and he’s now strung together four consecutive victories all via first round finish. If Motta can extend this fight he’ll be live for the upset. However, I’m not confident in his ability to do so. Torres is going to be the aggressor early here and I have trouble trusting Motta’s questionable chin/durability. Manuel Torres by Round One KO

Pat Sabatini -190 vs Lucas Almeida +155

• Anthony: Featherweights Pat Sabatini and Lucas Almedia do battle next. This is a serious clash of styles with Almeida looking to stand and bang with the primary grappler in Sabatini. We saw Sabatini eat a clean knee and get finished facing Damon Jackson last September, but that bout was only his first loss inside of the UFC. Sabatini had otherwise had a very strong resume through four octagon wins, taking down his opponents with ease and averaging more than two submission attempts landed per fight. Almeida is a fluid striker that can unload strikes with a steady workrate, I just fear his grappling in comparison to that of today’s opponent. One would assume the Brazilian to have the better BJJ but Almeida has largely built his resume beating strikers on the regional scene in Sao Paulo. Sabatini is a true world class grappler with a black belt in jiu jitsu under Daniel Gracie. He will rely heavily on his wrestling and jiu jitsu here to stymie Almeida’s offense and walk away victorious. Pat Sabatini by Decision
• Nick: Sabatini is a well-rounded fighter with decent striking ability and slick BJJ. He is excellent in scrambles, he has shown solid body-lock takedown ability and his greatest strength comes via his strong wrestling base and takedown entries. Almeida has sneaky power, he pushes a serious pace early in fights and against inferior opponents he does a good job overwhelming them with this style. He’s coming off an impressive win over Mike Trizano via KO in his UFC debut. I expect Almeida will have a power advantage over Sabatini on the feet here, which presents his clearest path to potentially pull off the upset. That being said, Almeida has just a 50 percent takedown defense in the UFC. As long as Sabatini remains sound defensively, he should be able to control this fight on the mat and grind out a decision. Pat Sabatini by Decision

Christian Leroy Duncan -150 vs Armen Petrosyan +125

• Anthony: The featured bout is a great middleweight contest between Armen Petrosyan and Christian Leroy Duncan. I am very excited for a clash between these talented strikers. Leroy Duncan did not get to display much in his promotional debut as Dusko Todorovic suffered a leg injury in the very early going. However, I very much believe in this man’s hype. The undefeated prospect is 8-0 in professional competition, putting on spectacular performances for Cage Warriors before being signed to the UFC. He is a very agile striker with great footwork, a wide arsenal of attacks and very jarring power. Petrosyan is a very skilled kickboxer but not necessarily as quick or deliberate in his offense as Leroy Duncan appears to be. Petrosyan also fights out of the orthodox stance while Duncan is a master of switching from side to side. While this is likely to be a back and forth kickboxing affair, I do not think Petrosyan is sharp enough defensively to stay out of danger. He can throw consistent volume and certainly score on Leroy Duncan, I just imagine he will still be stuck standing across from Duncan when the shots begin to find their mark. Leroy Duncan has a much wider arsenal of weapons, mixing in elbows and knees far more frequently than Petrosyan. I am confident betting on the English fighter at odds of just -150. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round Two KO
• Nick: Petrosyan is a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and outstanding speed. He manages range well, has outstanding footwork, and five of his seven professional wins have come via KO. He is 2-1 under the UFC banner, most recently securing a convincing decision win over AJ Dobson. Christian Leroy Duncan is 8-0 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. He’s a dynamic striker who has shown serious power in both his punches and his kicks. He’s extremely athletic with creative flying and spinning attacks in his arsenal. He does an excellent job leading his opponents into traps, and he’s explosive out of breaks. Petrosyan has a considerable experience advantage here as far as MMA at the UFC level, but Leroy Duncan is certainly the more potent finisher. Additionally, Duncan will have an 8” reach advantage. This should be a fun fight on the feet for as long as it lasts, but I expect Leroy Duncan can stay a step ahead. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round Three KO

Arman Tsarukyan -1100 vs Joaquim Silva +650

• Anthony: The co-main event is a lightweight matchup between Joaquim Silva and Arman Tsarukyan. We had originally been slated to see Renato Moicano faceoff with Tsarukyan but unfortunately the Brazilian had been forced to pull out. Now we get quite the mismatch with the 34 year old Silva sitting as a +650 underdog today. Simply put, the skills possessed by Tsarukyan seems like a very tough one for Silva to come in here and oppose. He averages more than one takedown landed per round and makes very few technical mistakes. Silva will likely look to hurt Tsarukyan on the feet but such an intelligent grappler will likely rely on this wrestling today, working quickly to the ground and into Silva’s guard. Tsarukyan has proven he belongs among the divisions top contenders, sharing the cage most recently with Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov. I expect him to have no issues controlling Silva on the mat and finding himself his third finish in nine UFC bouts thus far. It is very difficult to get involved in Tsarukyan at odds this wide but he is a near lock in my opinion. I expect a large portion of this small Apex crowd to once again be front and center supporting their Armenian countryman. Arman Tsarukyan by Round Two KO
• Nick: Arman Tsarukyan is one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC. He’s an effective wrestler as well as a creative striker with an extremely high Fight IQ and durability. Tsarukyan has one of the better single-leg entries in the division. His scrambling is outstanding, as it was on full display in his UFC debut against current champion, Islam Makhachev. Silva is a BJJ black belt, but he doesn’t really have the wrestling or takedown entries required to get the fight to the mat against stronger opponents. He’s a flashy striker, but he usually only carries his power in the earlier rounds. The line is very wide here, but it should be. Tsarukyan is a top-5 lightweight in the world and Silva has never come close to being ranked. Outside of getting clipped early, Tsarukyan should absolutely dominate in this one. Arman Tsarukyan by Round Two KO

Marvin Vettori -125 vs Jared Cannonier +100

• Anthony: The main event is a very important bout at middleweight between Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier. Both men are in a position to make another run at the 185 pound title after securing a victory in their latest showing. Cannonier looked sharp in a decision win against Sean Strickland to close out 2022. He is an incredibly steady fighter, now accustomed to the five round distance and sustaining a pace for the entirety of each fight. For 39 years of age Cannonier is really in peak physical form and dangerous every time he steps into the octagon. Vettori is a tough matchup stylistically based on his durability and high output of offense on the feet. We are likely going to see Vettori working on the front foot here, backing up Cannonier when he can and landing much longer combination punches. Vettori’s head movement and speed give him a slight edge standing, but Cannonier can certainly hit much harder. Vettori’s granite chin is bound to crack at some point but thus far he has had no problem eating clean head kicks while continuing to march forward. Cannonier will connect with some huge counters today but I do not think he has enough to get Vettori out of there. This will be a competitive bout early on but I imagine over the course of twenty five minutes, Vettori proves to be the fresher and more effective athlete. I am not very confident betting on him but he is certainly my pick to win tonight. Marvin Vettori by Decision
• Nick: Marvin Vettori is still only 29 years-old and outside of his most recent loss to Robert Whittaker, he seems to get better every time we see him fight. Vettori is a southpaw who throws a strong knee and kicks behind his punches from the left side. He has yet to really show knockout power, but he does throw a high-volume of damaging strikes. While he is decent on the feet, he is also a talented grappler with a strong wrestling base and effective ground and pound ability.  Cannonier’s greatest strength is certainly his powerful striking ability. As a former heavyweight, he has true KO power at 185. If he can find a shot to land, he’s capable of putting anyone to sleep immediately. He is most recently coming off a narrow decision win over Sean Strickland, a fight in which his cardio held up well for five rounds. Cannonier is going to be live for a KO finish as long as this fight goes. However, I expect Vettori to put out more volume and he should be able to score occasional takedowns as a means to win minutes. The line feels accurate here and this is certainly a fight that can go either way, but I slightly prefer Vettori here. He has the better striking differential, his durability should help him neutralize Conniner’s signature power, and he can also mix in his grappling if he needs to. Marvin Vettori by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com

The post UFC Vegas 75 Analysis appeared first on Dynes Pressbox.