After Aaron Judge is back and Carlos Rodon is in their ranks, the Yankees have high hopes for 2023. And they look right. FanGraphs has released Dan Szymborski’s annual ZiPS projections that predict a good year for the Yankees led by their new captain and place them at the top for their downright terrifying rotation.

These Yankees projections are based on “multi-year statistics, with more weight given to more recent seasons” to predict how players and teams will perform.

The Yankees offense

The 2023 Yankees‘ offense is expected to be among the best in baseball, according to ZiPS projections. FanGraphs does say that the Yankees’ offense is a little top-heavy because AaronJudge and Giancarlo Stanton are the only two players on the team with 30+ home runs.

Szymborski claims:

“It’s hard to have a bad offense with Aaron Judge, and it’s hard to have a good offense without him. The Yankees weren’t good enough or bad enough in other ways to change that fact. With the return of their star hitter, the Yankee offense shouldn’t be too far off from leading the American League in runs scored.”

However, the projections warn about the injury that bogged down the Yankees in 2022 and suggest they should keep a tab on it, as the Yankees’ lineup “thins out a lot once you get past the players likely to be on the major league roster.”

According to it, the Yankees offense is about to go through a little bit of a change. Judging by the lineup, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton may be the only players still on the team in three years, and even then, Stanton may be even less important than he is now. Stanton is no longer at the top of his game, and Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu are also past their best. Josh Donaldson and Harrison Bader are likely to leave the Yankees after 2023, which many Yankees fans think is a year too late. Isiah Kiner-Falefa got too much criticism in 2022 because he was a fill-in player who played like one. However, Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe will soon start to take over at shortstop, and the loser of their battle will likely take over for Gleyber Torres at second.

As the team is currently set up, there is a chance that someone will get hurt. A lot depends on their captain Aaron Judge, and the team has not a good depth.

The Yankees’ hitting projections are:

The Yankees Rotation

The Yankees have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball, and FanGraphs gives it five high marks, calling the rotation “downright terrifying.”

“Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are as frightening a one-two as the crosstown rival Mets have, and they’re likely to be around a lot longer,” Szymborski writes. “ZiPS is finally a full believer in Nestor Cortes, and both Frankie Montas and Luis Severino have solid projections that only look light because of the projected inning totals. Domingo Germán is one of the better sixth starters around, and ZiPS likes the team’s Triple-A depth of below-average-but-above-replacement starters better than the parallel fill-ins available on the offensive side.”

The Yankees’ rotattion projections are:

The Yankees bullpen

The Yankees bullpen is set to become different following the exit of Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton. However, this doesn’t mean that the Yankees have a weak bullpen. The group is still expected to perform quite strongly.

“The bullpen isn’t quite at the same level that it was at its peak from a few years ago when the Yankees seemed to employ half of the league’s closers” Szymborski writes, “but the group remains solid despite a relative lack of marquee names. ZiPS projects nearly the entire likely relief corps to be above average and is especially in on Ron Marinaccio.”

The Yankees bullpen projections:

The Yankees graph

Yankees batters – Standard

Yankees batters – Advanced

Yankees batters – Top near-age offensive comps

Yankees batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Yankees pitchers – Standard

Yankees pitchers – Advanced