The NBA did an excellent job of hijacking the NFL’s Super Bowl mojo this week with a couple of blockbuster moves ahead of the league’s trade deadline, as well as LeBron James setting the new all-time scoring record. But the NBA will not be stealing any of the spotlight in this newsletter.

No, today’s final edition of Football Friday is a Super Bowl blowout. I’ve got a pick for the game and four other prop bets for Sunday. I also included a college basketball play and some soccer bets to round out the entire weekend, but this is primarily a Super Bowl pregame party.

We’ve only got one football game left this season, and I don’t plan on going out with any losses. But first, all the latest words worth consuming with your eyeballs.

To the Super Bowl!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The Hot Ticket

Eagles vs. Chiefs, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. | TV: Fox

• Key Trend: The Chiefs are 7-3-1 ATS as underdogs since Patrick Mahomes became their starter in the 2018 season. 
• The Pick: Chiefs (+105)

When I was growing up, the Super Bowl kind of sucked: From Super Bowl 24 (1990) to Super Bowl 37 (2003), only four of the 14 games finished as one-score contests and provided drama. The average margin of victory for the winners was 17.4 points per game.

Things have changed pretty dramatically since then: while we still get the occasional dud, the 19 Super Bowls since have included 11 one-score games and an average margin of 9.3 points. I expect this year’s game to be another close affair, as the Eagles and Chiefs are evenly matched.

I see the Eagles as the more talented team overall and the Chiefs as the team with the significant advantage at quarterback, which makes sense. When you have a QB who could prove to be an all-timer in Patrick Mahomes, you have to pay him accordingly, which impacts your ability to build a complete roster. But it’s a sacrifice you happily make for, you know, having Pat Freaking Mahomes. On the other hand, the Eagles have Jalen Hurts on a rookie deal, allowing them to fill out the roster elsewhere.

As talented as the Eagles are, I cannot pass up betting on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The Eagles haven’t had to show us that they can come back when facing a deficit. More often than not, the Eagles build a lead and then sit on it in the second half. Jalen Hurts’ deficiencies as a passer haven’t come into play often. They might in this game, though. As great as the Eagles’ defense is, Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs are the Chiefs. They’re going to score points, and if KC builds an early lead, I don’t know that the Eagles are built to come back.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model doesn’t see much of an edge anywhere, but SportsLine capper Larry Hartstein is 26-16 ATS in his last 42 picks involving the Chiefs, and he’s posted a play for Sunday’s game.

The Picks

Super Bowl Props

The Pick: Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (-184) — I suspect this will be a big Travis Kelce game. The Eagles’ pass rush is fierce, which means the Chiefs will look to get the ball out quickly. When they do that, Kelce benefits. The Eagles’ defense will scheme to take Kelce out of the equation, but every team tries to do that — and nobody can. He always finds the open area. Plus, if you put too much of your defensive focus on Kelce, that’s when the Chiefs kill you over the top.

The Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-119) — When Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain against Jacksonville, there were questions about his mobility in the AFC Championship. He was limited, but when the Chiefs absolutely needed it late in the game, Mahomes rushed and picked up a first down. Mahomes routinely has used his legs as a weapon more in the postseason than in the regular season during his career. I don’t think he’s fully healed, but considering the pressure, Philly’s defense can put on you and the stakes, we’re likely to see Mahomes take off a few times.

The Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-119) — There’s a good chance the Eagles will have to throw more than usual, and Smith strikes me as a beneficiary of the matchup. A.J. Brown will always draw the most attention, but there’s also the turf in Arizona. In short, it sucks — there are always players slipping on it. Smith’s shiftiness and precise route-running could leave some KC DBs on their butts.

The Pick: Miles Sanders Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-104) — I believe this prop opened at around 53.5 in most places and has been bet up considerably in the last couple of weeks. I’m here to buy back on it. If Philly wins this game, odds are Sanders will rush for a considerable number of yards, but I don’t think the Eagles will be able to run the ball as often as they usually do because of how I see the game playing out. So that, combined with the total rising, makes this a value bet in my eyes.

College Basketball

Kent State at Buffalo, 6 p.m. | TV: ESPN2

The Pick: Under 153 (-110) — I need at least one Friday night play, right? Kent State is in a tight race to win the MAC’s regular season crown, but while most power ratings peg the Flashes as the best team in the league, trying to predict the MAC has always been a fool’s errand.

That said, the total for this contest strikes me as being exceedingly high. Buffalo’s defensive efficiency ranks 214th in KenPom at 106.7. However, in conference play, the Bulls’ defensive efficiency comes down to 105.3, which ranks fourth in the conference. Kent State’s defense has been the second-best in the league. We’ve got a matchup of two of the MAC’s best defenses against a couple of offenses that haven’t been anything special. Asking for them to hit this total seems like asking for too much.

Soccer

Lecce vs. Roma, Saturday, 12 p.m. | TV: Paramount+
The Pick: Roma (-102) — This line makes absolutely no sense to me, which, admittedly, scares me a little. Not enough to get me to back off my play, though. I’ve gone over it all year. I’m not betting Roma against the top of Serie A, but I’ll take it all day, every day, against the lower half of the table. That’s where Lecce resides.

Lecce has proven to be one of the more difficult nuts to crack in the league, as it’s allowed only 24 goals (7th in the league) on 23.7 xG (also 7th), but it doesn’t score any for itself. Its xG of 18.6 on the season ranks 19th in the league. Lecce is the catenaccio stereotype of Italian football, but can it hold Roma goalless for 90 minutes? Sure, but not nearly as often as the line suggests.

Juventus vs. Fiorentina, Sunday, 12 p.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network
The Pick: Over 2.5 (+110) — Juventus finds itself in the middle of Serie A following a 15-point deduction, but despite hitting a rough patch a couple of weeks ago, things have smoothed out a bit. In fact, things have been pretty entertaining. Juve won eight straight in Serie A before the point deduction hit, and it did thanks to incredible defending. We started to see some regression there with losses to Napoli and Monza and a 3-3 draw to Atalanta.

What stands out to me, though, is how many more chances Juve has begun to generate. It’s almost as if the penalty and the unlikelihood of qualifying for Europe led to Max Allegri taking the leash off and allowing his team to play more freely. It’s made for a much more enjoyable watch. This weekend, against a Fiorentina side that’s kept only one clean sheet in its last 10 matches, I won’t be surprised if Juve hits the over on its own. It’s been much more aggressive at home all year long.

SportsLine Pick of the Day: What? You thought we were out of Super Bowl content? Oh no, my friend, we’ve got a metric ton more. We’ve compiled a Super Bowl props guide that has advice on over 500 prop bets for the Super Bowl. You read that right: over 500 props. And it’s all right here.