12 Get ready for Bill Self, fresh off winning his second national championship, to prove for the 2,947th time just how good of a coach he is. (And probably make my ranking look bad in the process.) KU checks in as a top-10 team according to the preseason AP poll and a variety of predictive metrics, this despite the fact the Jayhawks lost six of their eight best players and don’t return a sure-fire NBA Draft pick. Dajuan Harris (5.4 ppg, 4.2 apg) is back to run the offense and Jalen Wilson (11.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg) will keep his spot on the wing. Those two upping their games significantly will be paramount to KU keeping stride with Baylor and Texas. The starting five figures to round out with five-star sniper Gradey Dick at the 2, Texas Tech transfer and big-time bruiser Kevin McCullar at the 4 and maybe freshman Ernest Udeh in the middle. Few national champions in the past two decades have had to replace so much and return so few scholarship players. That’s why the only program to win back-to-back titles in 30 years was Florida in the mid-aughts. 13 There are undeniable concerns about Xavier‘s overall team defense, but I’ll take a chance and aim high in Year 1 under Sean Miller, who has overcome similar concerns in previous years. Despite the coaching change, X brings back more than any other team in the Big East. How often does that happen? The Musketeers were picked second in the league’s preseason poll but landed atop all others in my top 101 because of the quartet of starters back: Colby Jones, Zach Freemantle, Jack Nunge and Adam Kunkel. Jones could be an NBA pick in June, Nunge is the most underrated big in the country, Kunkel is a no-nonsense role player, and Freemantle can be an upgrade over previous versions of himself if he stays disciplined and can spread defenses out as a 6-9 sometimes-shooter. X’s secret weapon should be freshman Desmond Claude, who’s probably the second-best frosh in the conference to Villanova‘s Cam Whitmore. If Jones’ 3-point shot becomes consistent, he can win Big East POY. 14 The Bluejays are 14th here but No. 9 in the preseason AP Top 25 — their highest preseason ranking in history. Hopes have never been higher in Omaha, not even when Doug McDermott was building out a legendary career. This has a chance to be the best Creighton team in history, but considering it finished last season 50th in KenPom and 51st at Torvik, I stopped short of vaulting the Jays all the way into the top 10. They do have my preseason pick for Big East POY, Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-foot defensive stalwart who is going to give the Bluejays a dynamic no other team in the Big East will match. I also love Ryan Nembhard‘s long-term potential; Creighton’s starting point is back after breaking his wrist. Ask around the Big East and coaches will tell you the guy who is THE factor in making Creighton a next-level team is wing Trey Alexander. Greg McDermott landed one of the buzziest transfers in the portal, South Dakota State scorer Baylor Scheierman, who will be a sweet fit in this offense. Then there’s Arthur Kaluma at the 4, just another dude capable of leading this team in scoring on any given night. Can’t wait to see Creighton as November moves along. 15 So, how’s this going to go? Jon Scheyer takes over one of the top three jobs in the country. Duke has a new coach for the first time in four decades. Optimism is palpable, but nobody really knows. It’s all new vibes in Durham, where Duke has the top-rated freshman class. Thankfully, Scheyer is comfortable in his new role and has been empowered to build out Duke the way he thinks will be an extension of Mike Krzyzewski but also a modernization of the Blue Devils in this NIL era. Here’s the thing: there’s not a lot of guys on the roster who know how to win in college. Scheyer is thrilled Jeremy Roach opted to return; at least one person getting minutes will have walked through the fire. Duke just lost a program-record five NBA picks in a single draft, so here comes the next wave: stretch 5 Dereck Lively II, multi-faceted 4 Kyle Filipowski, tantalizing talent at the 3 in Mark Mitchell, and a pair of shooting guards in Tyrese Proctor and Dariq Whitehead who’ll be marvelous. Roach will be the head of the snake. Coveted Illinois transfer Jacob Grandison will provide experience and shooting. But there are too many unknowns here for me to slot Duke any higher in Scheyer’s debut. It’s one of the most intriguing groups going into the season. 16 Back in early August, as I started to think out how I’d tier out teams, I wondered if I might wind up higher on UVA than anyone else. Turns out, no chance. As the leaves began to fall, Virginia was on the receiving end of more and more respect both within ACC circles and around the country. Tony Bennett doesn’t have his greatest roster, but Reece Beekman, Jayden Gardner, Kihei Clark, Kadin Shedrick, Armaan Franklin and Ben Vander Plas feel like a top six that can thrive in Bennett’s philosophy and bring the Hoos back to national viability. That’s a starting five + sixth man who will be wearing home whites into Sweet 16, should UVA get that far. Nobody of note is gone from a season ago, when UVA went 21-14. This program doesn’t stay down long under Bennett. Beekman and Gardner should be two of the 10 best all-around players in the ACC, and Clark sort of is what he is at this stage of his career — a good thing, to be sure. Underrated defender, even. 17 The Crimson Tide could have some stumbles early without Jahvon Quinerly available; he tore his ACL in the NCAA Tournament and the hope is he can be able to play effectively by Christmas. That in mind, this ranking is a projection of where Alabama can be in the national landscape by March. Freshman Brandon Miller is the guy you’ll want to tune in for. He’s a top-15 2022 prospect who is a terrific combo forward that does so much to help facilitate and energize an offense. Might be a lottery pick, and he’ll pair well with 6-10 freshman Noah Clowney, who is a plus-plus defender and has gotten better by playing under another big with talent, Charles Bediako. Two wait-and-see guys: Nimari Burnett, who transferred a year ago from TTU but sat out because of a knee injury; and Ohio PG transfer Mark Sears, who will take a major step up after a good season in the MAC. 18 Three seasons ago, Dayton went undefeated in regulation, becoming the first team since 1975-76 Indiana to be able to make such a claim. Of course, there was no tournament that year. This team has a chance to be nearly as good. Your names to know are DaRon Holmes II, Malachi Smith, Toumani Camara and Kobe Elvis. The majority of the roster returns after going 24-11. Holmes is an awesome player, the kind of flexible big who will be nearly as important for UD this season as Obi Toppin was three years ago. (That said, their games are quite different.) Smith should also be an A-10 First Teamer, as the 6-foot point is a keen distributor and quick-witted defender. He recently injured his ankle, but ideally that doesn’t lower Dayton’s ceiling. Flyers coach Anthony Grant is owed some good things, and this group is poised to deliver in that regard. For as much publicity as Dayton has received all preseason, there’s a chance the Flyers are still being slightly undervalued in the overall landscape, which is why I had to put them in the top 20. 19 Lose three NBA picks? So what. At Arizona, the expectation is you bring in NBA talent, lose it annually and you don’t slip in the Pac-12 hierarchy. Top-three program, no matter the circumstances surrounding you. That in mind, we’ll see what coach Tommy Lloyd does in his sophomore season. Bennedict Mathurin, Christian Koloko and Dalen Terry are now earning NBA paychecks. Azuolas Tubelis is U of A’s best player, a talented option at center who will be flanked in the frontcourt by Oumar Ballo, a senior who was recruited by Lloyd to Gonzaga. Ballo has his limits but there are flashes of fun talent. Guard play is where Arizona should remain fun and competitive as hell: Kerr Kriisa is a nasty trash talker who takes junk from no one, and Texas transfer Courtney Ramey could be a sweet complement in playing style. The guarantee breakout player: Pelle Larson has looked great all offseason and should be a go-to choice for offense. Lloyd proved how good he was in Year 1, so the slack will be minimal for a group that should easily qualify for the NCAA Tournament. 20 I’ll still take all of your Zach Edey stock. I thought he’d be a top-30 player by season’s end last season. That didn’t quite happen, but Edey still made hay, upping his averages from 8.7 to 14.4 points, 4.4 to 7.7 rebounds and .597 to .648 shooting percentage. He also fouled less. Purdue returns Edey, Mason Gillis, Caleb Furst (needs to shoot well) and Ethan Morton. David Jenkins Jr. is on his fourth college team: South Dakota State, then UNLV, then Utah, now Purdue. What a road. Once upon a time he was one of the best mid-major players in the country. He’s hoping to earn a starting spot along with freshman point guard Braden Smith. There’s a lot of questions with Purdue, but Matt Painter is a top-10 X-and-O coach. I’m banking on Edey commanding attention in a crowded Big Ten POY race. And Mackey Arena is as tough an environment to win in as that league has. Oh, and there’s another giraffe on the roster: a 7-2 frosh named Will Berg who will patrol the paint in the years to come. 21 This is why TCU went out and made sure to get — then retain, when the UCLA job came open a few years back — Jamie Dixon. The Horned Frogs enter with grander ambitions than at any point in program history. I’ve got TCU listed fourth overall in the Big 12, but finishing second is on the table. The hope is five starters are back. Why “hope”? There’s one eligibility issue lingering. Damion Baugh is facing a significant suspension from the NCAA due to briefly signing with an agent who wasn’t NCAA-approved. The school has been privately fighting for months. If he’s available, TCU has Sweet-16-or-better potential. Mike Miles (15.4 ppg) is back, and he could go out and win Big 12 POY. He and Baugh make for a wonderful 1-2 in the backcourt. Remember Eddie Lampkin? He’s a hoss and gave Arizona hell in the NCAAs, scoring 20 and hauling in 16 boards. Chuck O’Bannon (SF) and Emanuel Miller (PF) round out the familiar faces. TCU ranked 74th in offensive efficiency last season, which has to and should improve. This school is having a huge season on the football field, and now the basketball team will be tasked with equaling it. Huge vibes in Fort Worth these days. 22 I said on Eye on College Basketball that Trayce Jackson-Davis is my dark horse pick for NPOY. IU brings back Xavier Johnson, Race Thompson and Miller Kopp alongside Jackson-Davis. Jalen Hood-Schifino enters as the favorite for Big Ten freshman of the year. Will sophomore Tamar Bates make a jump? The fans are clamoring. You’ll recall IU elbowed its way into the NCAAs and then got booted by Saint Mary’s. Mike Woodson’s largest task will be splitting the difference between letting Jackson-Davis touch the ball on every possession but finding a way to get creative perimeter scoring. Woodson hasn’t shown that yet as a college coach. The Hoosiers were 10th in the Big Ten in PPP last season. His team ranked 95th in offensive efficiency. Something significant to prove there; it’s why I hesitated to pick IU to win the Big Ten. If you look at how Indiana played under Woodson and compare it to the statistical trends from Archie Miller’s final couple of seasons, the players ran the race more than coaching changed the situation. Turnover rate was identical (17.2%) in Miller’s last season and Woodson’s first. Three-point D, assist% D, assist% O, 3-point shooting and offensive-rebound rate were near-identical. Last year’s team was as fast as IU was on average over four years under Miller. 23 The Wildcats’ rock-solid environment will be tested right away under new coach Kyle Neptune. The team has been banged up a lot in the preseason and was forced to practice for weeks with limited numbers. Veteran shooting guard Justin Moore is recovering from an Achilles injury and the ambitious timeline of his return has been walked back publicly. Caleb Daniels is working his way back from a broken nose. Lauded freshman/potential 2023 NBA Draft lottery pick Cam Whitmore won’t be on the starting day roster because of thumb surgery. Despite Neptune encountering so many setbacks, I’ll trust Villanova pulls it together and maintains a top-25 affiliation for at least some of this season. Similar to Scheyer at Duke, I am curious to see how Neptune chooses to run his program now that Jay Wright is living half the year on the beach and splitting his time at Phillies, Eagles, Flyers and Sixers games. A healthy Brandon Slater will be pivotal. I think he shines. I also want to see how freshman point Mark Armstrong takes advantage of his bump up into the starting lineup as VU to get minutes opportunities early. 24 The Red Raiders fall fifth among Big 12 teams, which speaks to how much respect Mark Adams is already receiving. TTU has one starter back. Prized transfer center Fardaws Aimaq is hurt. The big guy returner is Kevin Obanor, who did well for himself (10.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) after coming over from Oral Roberts. He’ll likely need to up those averages to 15 and 7 if TTU is to keep momentum after making the Sweet 16, where it fell in a tough game to Duke. The Red Raiders bring in De’Vion Harmon, who is familiar with the conference, having previously been a Sooner before spending last season with Oregon. Another player incoming is one with positive vibes attached: 6-5 wing Kerwin Walton left UNC to play for Adams. Aimaq is the key, though. He broke his foot and is targeting a midseason return. If he can be mostly healthy, his physicality and tremendous rebounding prowess (13.6 per game last season, 15.0 the year before at Utah Valley) will be the thing that gets the Red Raiders precious victories in the February stretch. 25 I get the sense Mike Brey knows he’s got his best team in more than a half-decade. I get the hunch Notre Dame might be a firm seven-deep — no more — by the end of February, but I really like this starting five: Nate Laszewski, Dane Goodwin, Cormac Ryan, Marcus Hammond, J.J. Starling. Starling is a freshman who might grow into the best non-Duke freshman in the ACC. Hammond dropped 18 a game at Niagara, so we’ll see. Laszewski is a vet who’s gotten better each year. Goodwin is a vet wing and one of six super seniors on the roster. Brey loves to say get old and stay old. He’s done it again, and should manage to maintain top-four status in the ACC after losing top-25 pick Blake Wesley. 26 Super senior Will Richardson is the ignition point for an Oregon team that was a letdown a season ago, going just 20-15 and whiffing on making the Dance. It marked just the second time since 2013 that Oregon didn’t have a tournament-caliber club. It’s looking like the Ducks will be more formidable over the next five months. Richardson is the best player, but the front line could be the best in the conference: 6-8 double-digit scorer Quincy Guerrier is back; five-star prospect Kel’el Ware will be a stretchy 7-footer who can play the 4 or 5; and senior N’Faly Dante should be the best version of himself. There’s another 7-footer, sophomore Nate Bittle, who’s also said to have grown his game a bit in the offseason.