Kyiv, Ukraine – A mediator’s mantle isn’t one thing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is commonly seen sporting.

Dubbed “Europe’s last dictator”, Lukashenko has cracked down on critics and protests with harrowing cruelty, human rights teams say.

So when Lukashenko’s press service on Saturday evening trumpeted his “peacekeeping” position in quelling the Wagner personal military’s insurrection in neighbouring Russia, the largest query was: What’s in it for him?

First, Lukashenko signalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin, his largest political and monetary patron, can’t write him off.

“He simply showed that he is still useful to Russia, and that’s why he himself is still in Minsk,” John Lechner, an writer in Washington, DC, who’s writing a e-book about Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, advised Al Jazeera.

By internet hosting Prigozhin and his males, Lukashenko additionally will get 1000’s of skilled mercenaries.

“If Prigozhin stays in Belarus and manages Wagner or something similar, it boosts the political clout of Lukashenko, who will have his own real private army,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University advised Al Jazeera.

Belarusian authorities have began constructing camps for 8,000 Wagner males within the forests of the Mogilev area, which lies on the Russian border, the Verstka information portal reported on Monday.

It can be solely 100km (62 miles) southwest of the Belarusian capital, Minsk, and 200km (124 miles) north of the Ukrainian border

And but once more, Lukashenko confirmed that he can punch above his weight.

“He also shows the leaders of ex-Soviet nations that he’s still a sly middleman who can sort out sharp conflicts or at least diminish them,” Mitrokhin mentioned.

‘Bloodbath’

Saturday might go down in historical past as Putin’s worst day in energy.

Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defence of putting Wagner camps in Ukraine and killing 30 fighters to pressure members of the mercenary group into signing contracts and changing into a part of the common Russian forces.

The Wagner Group marched from Ukraine into Russia and seized the southern metropolis of Rostov-on-Don. Prigozhin then ordered his males to advance in the direction of Moscow.

Putin branded him a “traitor” and reportedly fled the Russian capital as Wagner males moved virtually unimpeded, capturing down a number of plane and killing pilots.

They have been about 200km (124 miles) south of Moscow – and appeared totally able to changing into the primary military to enter town since 1812 when Napoleon’s military burned it down.

And then, out of the blue, Lukashenko’s press service mentioned he discovered “an absolutely beneficial and acceptable option for resolving the situation”.

The deal Lukashenko brokered was easy: Putin drops rebel prices in opposition to Prigozhin and his males, they retreat and Belarus takes of their chief.

Putin mentioned on Monday that the Wagner fighters have to decide on whether or not they wish to enroll with the Ministry of Defence, return house or go to Belarus.

“I’m sure this will be the choice of Russian warriors who realised their tragic mistake,” Putin mentioned in a televised deal with.

The accord adopted a number of telephone calls between Lukashenko and Prigozhin.

“The conversation was complicated,” pro-Lukashenko analyst Vadim Gigin mentioned in televised remarks. “They immediately revealed things of oh-my-God kind.”

Executions and ‘blood diamonds’

“Oh, my God” is what many would say about Prigozhin.

He prefers to not follow the letter of the regulation – Russian or worldwide.

Prigozhin’s “troll farm” allegedly used pretend accounts or stolen identities of actual Americans to unfold Kremlin propaganda and intrude within the 2016 presidential elections within the United States.

Prigozhin’s mercenaries are additionally accused of committing warfare crimes similar to killing “traitors” with sledgehammers and videotaping the executions.

They helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad regain management of most of his nation – after which started working in Libya and several other sub-Saharan African nations.

Africa stays Prigozhin’s citadel, the place he retains 1000’s of fighters and earns cash by offering safety providers to a number of governments and buying and selling “blood diamonds”, gold, tungsten, timber and weapons, based on All Eyes on Wagner, a French group that screens the mercenary pressure.

A former senior Wagner commander even praised Prigozhin for bringing stability to the Central African Republic, whose inhabitants, he mentioned, “is absolutely excited about the presence of Russian mercenaries”.

“Because the central government widens its control, there’s more order and people can safely move around without a danger of being killed,” Marat Gabidulin, who fled to France and wrote two books, advised Al Jazeera.

Tactical positive aspects, strategic losses

Prigozhin’s African connections might show helpful to Lukashenko in his personal dealings with China, which have already introduced in commerce preferences and multibillion-dollar credit.

These connections is also helpful to Beijing because it boosts its clout in Africa additional, Igar Tyshkevich, a Belarusian analyst based mostly in Kyiv, mentioned in televised remarks.

The troll farm’s spin docs launched a number of profitable media shops and Telegram channels – and Lukashenko might use their experience.

“After the failure of Belarusian propaganda, such talents are needed,” Tyshkevich mentioned.

But the strategic, long-term penalties could also be manner worse.

Any future conflicts between Prigozhin and Putin’s allies will backfire on Lukashenko.

By offering shelter to a infamous accused warfare prison, Lukashenko loses any probability of restoring ties with the West.

“That’s why Lukashenko got into a traditional format of his political career’s stage – he won tactically, but strategically got himself into a very bad smelling place,” Tyshkevich concluded.

‘Union State’

For virtually three a long time, Lukashenko has been step by step ceding Belarusian independence to Moscow.

What he received in return was a political protect from Western sanctions, discounted vitality provides and different financial perks.

But Lukashenko has all the time been crafty sufficient to not cede an excessive amount of.

He let Russia deploy nuclear missiles in Belarus and use its territory to invade Ukraine – however refused to ship his personal military to the entrance strains.

He additionally by no means accomplished the previous Soviet Union’s largest integration undertaking.

In the late Nineteen Nineties, he and Russian President Boris Yeltsin determined to merge their two nations right into a “Union State”.

Lukashenko hoped to helm each states, given Yeltsin’s poor well being and alcoholism.

But Yeltsin anointed Putin as a successor, and Lukashenko stalled the merger.

These days, he can use Prigozhin to revive his clout in Russia.

“For Lukashenko, this is a chance for a renaissance of his influence [in Russia] the way it had been in the late 1990s with the Union State,” Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch advised Al Jazeera.