Rent is due, and it’s the last quarter of the year (technically excluding playoffs, but that doesn’t work for my analogy). The true competitors are coming into focus, while the 2024 hopefuls have to debate whether they gamble on a playoff spot or invest in their future propositions.
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NFL Week 14 Game of the Week
Eagles-Cowboys: Cowboys (-3.5)
The hardest decisions require the strongest wills. This is one of the few times I’d rather be wrong than right, but Philly not winning in Arlington since 2017 doesn’t bode well. Neither for how this team has looked as of late, for that matter. If the Eagles want to win, they have to fix the mistakes they made against San Francisco: feed the run game, let Slay travel with the #1 receiver, make an attempt to tackle at the second level, get the ball out quickly. 7-0 under John Hussey’s crew or not, hoping everything goes right in enemy territory is something only the fan side of me can do. Of course, picking Dallas means I need to shower to wash away my sins, but that is the sacrifice that I as a member of the media must make in the pursuit of truth…
Safe Picks
Texans-Jets: Texans (-3.5)
“You were unable to live with your failure, and where did that bring you? Back to me.”
— Zach Wilson, probably. Wilson might not win any awards for quarterbacking soon, but the Jets decided to sit him down for a reason. Now, after two games, they want to go back to the well. There’s only one problem, however: Wilson might not be willing. When told he would be the starter, the third year QB was reportedly reluctant. Wilson obviously refuted these claims, but a seed of doubt has been planted in a garden of words, and as the old saying goes, “a house divided among itself cannot stand.”
Panthers-Saints: Saints (-6.0)
The less said about Carolina’s situation, the better. Young could still be good, but David Tepper has a lot of work to do. No WR1, no offensive line, no first round pick, no stability at coaching. It’s hardly a wonder they’re 1-11. New Orleans aren’t world beaters, let alone fully healthy, but they should at least be good enough to beat a team that hasn’t scored 20 since mid-October.
Lions-Bears: Lions (+-3.0)
The Bears are faced with a difficult choice: further secure their spot in the top 5, or ruin their tank by jeopardizing a division rival’s shot at the 1 seed? For better or worse, I don’t think they’ll have much of a choice. Detroit has a plethora of weapons, a top 5 offensive line, a serviceable-at-least QB, and a 3-1 record against Chicago since Justin Fields was drafted. Perhaps their records are influencing the way I think, but I can also look at their team makeup and tell which is better than which.
Packers-Giants: Packers (-6.5)
My apologies to Jordan Love, I wasn’t familiar with your game. I knew GB had a healthy amount of weapons, I just wasn’t aware he could use them. I saw a calmer Jordan Love against the Chiefs, one that could control the pocket and deliver on-time throws to receivers. Even if it wasn’t time for me to reevaluate my stance on the Packers, New York is quite a ways away from warranting that respect.
Titans-Dolphins: Dolphins (-13.0)
The Dolphins are the Cowboys of the AFC, demolishers of subpar opponents that have yet to lay claim to an impressive victory. Fortunately for them, the Titans are not an impressive team. Spotty, yes, but unfortunate evidence of the mediocrity that pervades the NFL. Levis has certainly had good games, but Miami thrives on defeating questionable teams. At 4-8, I’d say Tennessee falls into that camp.
(Okay, Seattle was a good win, but I’m limiting my praise for Dallas).
Avoid
Jags-Browns: Browns (-2.5)
Christian Kirk’s absence takes away the downfield threat, Trevor Lawrence might not be available, and CJ Beathard didn’t inspire confidence in the few snaps he took after Lawrence went down. What’s worse is that was against the 32-ranked Bengals pass defense, and now they have to face a D that gives up the least yards in the league (see previous link). If Lawrence plays (despite how they played in four of their last five games). If Lawrence plays, it’ll be interesting to see how he performs. If Beathard plays, expect a blowout.
Other Picks
Rams-Ravens: Ravens (-7.5)
One of my favorite words in the English language is consistency. With 70% of the league being hot and cold or just plain terrible, I appreciate the Ravens figuring themselves out and scoring 30+ in five of their last six. They were hot and cold for the first quarter of the season, but have been one of the best in the league since week 7 (arguably week 6).
Colts-Bengals: Bengals (-2.0)
Can I trust the Bengals to recapture last week’s performance with Browning at QB? One great game does not a great QB make. It does make a great story, however, and unexpected revelations normally get two or three games before crashing back down to earth. It’ll be hard to know for sure how Browning will look, but I certainly have more faith in him now than I did before last week. Everything will realistically fall out of the bottom soon, but for the time being he might be the latter half of the season’s Passtronaut.
Bucs-Falcons: Buccaneers (+2.0)
This one should be exciting. Should be. A divisional rivalry that could have serious playoff implications? That’s an exciting storyline! At least, it would be if either team were deserving of that hype. I’ll give the nod to Tampa Bay since the few games that inspired hope recently came on the back of Heinicke, not Ridder (who hasn’t scored 20 in a game since October 7.
Seahawks-49ers: 49ers (-13.5)
At home. Full strength. Riding the high of beating a top 3 team in the NFC. That’s not even mentioning how Seattle just lost to a team that San Fransisco Blew out earlier this year, not that said team is another top 3 team in the NFC (last time praising Dallas, I swear!) Signature wins are a currency in the NFL, and off the top of my head, only Philadelphia has more in the conference. Hope as I might that Seattle helps Philadelphia win, I also realize that San Fransisco blew out two top contenders in the conference.
Vikings-Raiders: Vikings (-3.0)
Vikings fans, rejoice! Justin Jefferson is making his long-awaited return. It’s hard to pick Minnesota after that debacle last week, but Vegas has been substandard against everyone but (unsurprisingly) the Giants since Pierce took over. I admittedly hoped that he would keep a certain momentum about him, but scoring more than 15 points once in your last three isn’t earning anyone’s favor, especially when you put up only 13 on Miami.
Broncos-Chargers: Broncos (+2.5)
I guess this is how the mighty fall. On the side opposite the Niners on the impressive win spectrum, we have the Chargers. A win is a win, but only scoring six points against the Patriots?! Not even the Evil Empire dynasty, the 2-10 Belichick swan song Patriots! The question I have to ask myself is whether this is an anomaly or a trend. The Chargers are due for a bounce back game, but I’m not a fan of putting blind faith in a team, especially when they’ve shown questionable ability to maximize talent (e.g. not treating Ekeler like an every-down back).
Bills-Chiefs: Bills (+1.0)
I had Buffalo winning before Pacheco was ruled out. I was iffy on Kansas City as is (mostly due to the lack of support Mahomes receives from his pass-catchers), now there’s a real possibility that the Chiefs won’t have a run game. One man can only do so much, as the Chiefs have demonstrated over and over (30 times to be exact). It doesn’t help that when they’re firing, Buffalo can rattle off 30 points no problem.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
The post NFL Week 14 Picks & Bets Bets (2023) appeared first on The Birds Blitz.
