As it tends to do around this time, narratives in the NFL are starting to form the who’s who will be for the next 12 weeks. Things can always change, of course, but few if any “bad” teams make drastic turnarounds without completely changing the makeup of their team.
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Lock
Chiefs-Jets: Chiefs (-8.5)
Honestly, the Chiefs probably win this matchup with their week one roster (no Chris Jones, no Travis Kelce). It would have been a tough watch, but at least it would have been close. Kansas City, however, will be at full power against a Jets team that’ll be asking its Defense to carry all of the weight. There was a brief period of time where I had faith in Zach Wilson, but just like Joe Namath, I’ve seen enough. No mas! No mas!
Safe Bet
Raiders-Chargers: Chargers (-5.0)
I didn’t think the Chargers defense would be good when the season started, but I at least thought that he’d be able to carry the defense. Seeing as they’re 0-3, I might have been wrong. Fortunately for LA, the Raiders have yet to score 20 points this season. Albeit, Vegas faced the Bills and Steelers, but they also faced Denver and only put up 17. It’s admittedly funny that I can go from praising Garoppolo two weeks ago to making fun of Las Vegas’ anemic offense, but such is the nature of the beast.
Avoid
Dolphins-Bills: Bills (-3.0)
This’ll be one to watch. Not one to bet on, but if you’re only in it for the football, it’ll be a fun shootout. Tua’s 1-4 against the Bills in his career, but this might be one of those cases where pedigree genuinely doesn’t matter, especially if Jaylen Waddle makes his return. Like many games this week, this is probably going to be a close game that’s hard to pick, but I’m going to go Miami based on three factors: momentum, Allen’s week 1 fiasco, and Tua’s supporting cast. I also don’t see Tua making the mistakes that Howell did.
Tank Bowls
Broncos-Bears: Broncos (-3.5)
UrinatingTree said on his Steelers broadcast that this would be the first Tank Bowl of the year, but can the Broncos win by losing? They’re locked in with Russ for the next few seasons, so they’d probably look elsewhere other than QB. Chicago would probably look at Drake Maye or Caleb Williams (if they could get him), but Colorado? Edge rusher, I suppose.
Vikings-Panthers: Vikings (-4.5)
I’m rooting for Carolina here, actually. I think Minnesota is a better team, but they’d benefit from losing and getting any one of the top touted QBs from next year’s draft (ignoring most of their woes are on the defensive side of the ball). As any GM will tell you, however, it’s much harder to find a game changer at QB than CB or DE. Cousins has been at least solid for most of his time in Minnesota, but as Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensa admitted in 2022, “we don’t have Pat{Rick Mahomes}.“
Other Picks
Falcons-Jaguars: Falcons (+3.0)
I’ve been avoiding writing about this one for one simple reason: I don’t know who’s going to win. Based on the past couple weeks, it looks like this is going to be a battle of two mediocre-at-best teams. Trying to pick between two bad teams is like trying to cut something with a dull blade (which is said to be more dangerous than if it were sharp). I’ll flip a coin and Atlanta since they’ve managed to score at least 24 points in two of three games so far, which I say is the benchmark of a competent offense (or at least close to it). Meanwhile, the Jaguars offense has looked out of sorts. It’s almost like Press Taylor is their OC or something.
Ravens-Browns: Browns (-1.5)
I hate to say it, but we might have to take Cleveland seriously. The offense is inconsistent, yes, but the defense has proven it’s good enough that it can carry when the offense is having an off day. Meanwhile, Baltimore has to rely on Lamar to be perfect. Not that this is anything new for Lamar, but depending on one person to carry an entire team (because Baltimore’s defense is not good) isn’t fair or sustainable.
Steelers-Texans: Steelers (-3.0)
The Texans are showing early signs of life. CJ Stroud has been good enough to be named Offensive Rookie of the Month, but something’s pulling me away from betting on the Texans. It could be any number of things: the money line being 86% on the Steelers, Mike Tomlin’s refusal to have a sub-.500 season, Stroud only having a small sample size before going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Whatever the reason actually is, I’ve psyched myself out of going Houston, so if the Texans win, I will not be pleased.
Rams-Colts: Rams (+1.0)
Do I dare put faith in the Rams after the debacle that occurred last week? The Rams are still a good team, better than I thought they’d be thanks to Puka Nacua going through his Travis Fulgham arc. Like many teams, however, LA has had weeks where they’ve looked solid and some where they’ve looked inept (and we’re only three weeks in). If Anthony Richardson is out, however, I might have no choice. Gardner Minshew is a fun quarterback to root for, but not someone you want to bet the ranch on. Stafford isn’t what he once was, but he’s still got the upside that makes him the default pick against a bad opponent.
Buccaneers-Saints: Buccaneers (+3.5)
After watching the Packers on Thursday Night Football, I’m more confident in this pick than ever (more specifically, the past three days). Green Bay couldn’t get anything moving in the first half, and New Orleans somehow still lost. Now, the Saints are dealing with uncertainty at the QB position, making them an even more volatile offense than they already were. They get Alvin Kamara back from suspension this week, but Derek Carr has likewise been momentarily usurped for Jameis Winston. It’d admittedly be hilarious if Winston came back and lit up his old team. I’d even say I’m secretly rooting for it, as I have a taste for chaos, but chaos does not a wise pick make.
Commanders-Eagles: Eagles (-8.5)
Careful, Eagles fans. I remember what happened with Taylor Heinecke last year. Washington loves playing the upset. They upset the Steelers when they were 11-0, they were the only team to beat Jalen Hurts in the regular season last year, and they ended the Ravens’ undefeated preseason streak. Now, Philadelphia is not so far into the season as to be worthy of such consideration, and I’ll be damned if the Commanders beat us in our own home, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they find a way to screw this up. Then again, veteran Eagles fans don’t need to be told this.
Bengals-Titans: Titans (+2.5)
Rumor on the street is that Cincinnati’s offense is starting to heat up. I saw it start to unfold against their ugly win against the Rams. Cincinnati has higher upside for sure, but upside they have yet to capture this season, upside that likely won’t be captured any time soon due to Tennessee’s run defense and Burrow’s issues with his shoulder. I need Cincinnati to show a spark for an entire game.
Patriots-Cowboys: Patriots (+6.5)
The Cowboys defense got picked apart by Josh Dobbs and Jonathan Gannon, I can only imagine what Bill Belichick is going to do. Mac Jones isn’t exactly Tom Brady, but he’s definitely serviceable, and serviceable might be all it takes to chew up a Cowboys defense that, if last week is any indication, is sorely Missing Trevon Diggs.
Cardinals-Niners: 49ers (-14.0)
The Cardinals have been better than I thought they’d be this year, and I owe Josh Dobbs for knocking off a divisional rival last week, but this week they have to worry about their own rivals, who just so happen to be a top three team in the NFC. Arizona might have shined against the Giants and a Cowboys team missing Trevon Diggs, but Purdy’s proven me wrong so far: that team is just as dangerous as everyone else thought they’d be.
Seahawks-Giants: Seahawks (-1.5)
To their credit, the Giants managed to pull off a huge comeback against Arizona. The complication, however, is that this is the same team that played six quarters of scoreless football beforehand. I also don’t like picking divisional rivals if I can help it.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
The post Week 4 NFL Picks (2023) first appeared on The Birds Blitz.
The post Week 4 NFL Picks (2023) appeared first on The Birds Blitz.
