“I know that I know nothing.”

-Socrates”

–Me trying to pick football games

I’m mostly kidding, as I have a good amount of confidence in my ability to pick games, even after last week, where I ended up getting two or three wrong purely because of three unbelievable comebacks. For whoever said lightning doesn’t strike the same place twice, for me it struck three times. I don’t plan on having a repeat of that, so I’m keeping track of what teams are on an upward and downward trajectory. Here’s to your pockets being a bit fuller after today.

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• On Fire: KC, BUF
• Hot: PHI, TB, LAR
• Heating Up: NYG, NYJ, MIA, MIN, GB, ATL, DET
• Lukewarm: HOU, JAX, MIN, DAL, NO, LV, AZ, PIT, CLE, WAS, NE
• Cooling Off: LAC, CIN, DEN, BAL
• On Thin Ice: IND, TEN
• Freezing: CHI, SEA, CAR

Locks

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts: Chiefs (-2.5)

This is an easy one. One of the best teams in the NFL vs. what is quickly turning into one of the most disappointing. That might be due to the Colts missing three of their top playmakers (Buckner, Pittman, Leonard), but Mahomes lost Hill and threw five touchdowns. Unless Mahomes has a REALLY off day, I don’t see a world where this Colts teams beats the Chiefs with how the former have looked.

Safe Bets

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders: Eagles (-1.0)

This isn’t just bias, this is Philadelphia being a more complete team than the Commanders are. Both have ferocious defensive lines, but Philly’s receivers, o line, and arguably QB are better. Hurts never lost a lead over the Lions, meanwhile the Commanders didn’t score a point until they were down 22 against the same opponent.

Other Bets:

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: Dolphins (+3.5)

Warning, hot take alert!  The Buffalo Bills will lose to the Miami Dolphins! Don’t get me wrong, Josh Allen is going to cook like he always does, but that Defense is going to be without some very key components: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Mitch Morse. We all remember what happened last year when Tyreek Hill abused Buffalo’s defense, right? And guess what team Hill is on now. I’m not saying that Tua is Mahomes, but he has shown that he can take advantage of an injured defense.

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears: Bears (-3.0)

The Battle of Mid. Frankly, this is going to sound stupid, but I’m not sure how to pick this game otherwise, and so I’m going full conspiracy theorist. I’m trying to tap into the headspace of the (metaphorical) script writers of the NFL. I think they want to keep the AFC South close, and looking at some of the other matchups, I think they’ll get what they want. 

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans: Raiders (+1.0)

I’m not sold on the Titans anymore. I don’t want to rip them too hard for losing to one of the least defenses in the league, but there was a lot of question marks that emerged last week. Injuries, a terrible performance by Ryan Tannehill that resulted in a subsequent benching. I’m not comfortable putting my money behind the Titans. This Tennessee team doesn’t give the same vibe as before.

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings: Lions (+5.0)

Are the Detroit Lions… good? Jared Goff isn’t better than Matthew Stafford, but adding Dan Campbell and running the offense through Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeAndre Swift. As an Eagles fan, I can tell you how Goff and Cousins both performed against Philadelphia. One scored 35 points, one scored 7. Granted, Cousins won’t be facing a CB of Darius Slay’s caliber, but Detroit has scored 30 points in both their games so far. 

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots (-3.0)

This is a game where I can see Lamar taking over again and blowing out a team whose assistants consist of Matt Patricia and Adam Gase. I was ready to write off Lamar Jackson after he wrote off 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Forget that Lamar lost last week, he doesn’t play defense. He did, however, score 36 points, which’ll beat pretty much any team in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets: Jets (+5.0)

From predicting they’d be 0-17 to predicting they’d beat the AFC’s representative in the Super Bowl last year. Time flies. After a rough start, it’s time we ask some questions about the Bengals. New York showed me something I didn’t know they had in them last week. 

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers: Saints (-2.0)

I’m not necessarily sold on either team, but I’ve definitely seen more to convince me of the Saints’ legitimacy than Carolina’s. Particularly, I don’t have (m)any good things to say about Baker Mayfield or Matt Rhule. Rhule has the worst record among active coaches since 2020, and Mayfield hasn’t played high-quality football since 2020.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks (+4.0)

I’ll take my L regarding Marcus Mariota. I thought the offense was going to be inept with him under center. The Falcons have put up at least 26 points in both of their matchups. The Seattle offense has put up a maximum of 17 since the start of the season. A small sample size, yes, but the only one I have to go off of. 

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-3.5)

I’m riding with Vegas on this one. The money is leaning towards Tampa Bay, and remembering how well TB did a couple years ago against a superior Green Bay team, I think Tampa’s defense has another strong showing against a team whose #1 receiver is Randall Cobb. It might be foolish to pick this game based off a matchup from two years ago, but both teams have shown cracks in the armor that show this game could go either way.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals: Rams (-2.0)

There were a lot of blown leads this week. Arizona was a light breeze away from getting beaten by Las Vegas. The videogame-type stuff Murray got away with last week likely won’t fly against the Rams defense, and with how much more that Stafford has to use than Murray, this shouldn’t be much of a contest. Then again, some games have been simply wild, and the NFL seems to have a fetish for unpredictability this year.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos: 49ers (+2.5)

Having more faith in Jimmy Garoppolo than Russell Wilson is not a feeling I thought I’d ever have, but that’ll happen when you score one offensive touchdown in two games and have a coach that looks thoroughly outclassed by the week (yes, I know the season’s only an eighth over). No matter how mediocre Jimmy Garoppolo may be, Denver would absolutely take being called mediocre right about now.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants: Cowboys (-3.0)

Needless to say, the determining factor in this game is the Dallas defense, particularly one Micah Parsons. I applaud the Giants for being 2-0, but the Cowboys have held much better teams under 20 points. Cooper Rush isn’t moving mountains, but neither is Daniel Jones. This is another game where the win will be decided by coaching and defense. Dallas has a better defense, but better coaching? We’ll see. I’ll say they have better coaching if they can recreate what they did last week. 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Chargers (-10.5)

The Chargers were SUPPOSED to be one of the most obvious picks of the week, until Justin Herbert’s ribs were crushed late into last week’s game vs. the Chiefs. I’m still picking the Chargers because I’m a coward afraid to go against the grain (in this case at least), but if the Jaguars win today, Herbert out or not, I’m going to have to give them their proper respect, as this Chargers team has talent on both sides of the ball.

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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.

The post Week 3 NFL Game Picks (2022) appeared first on The Birds Blitz.