Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Overview

• Date: April 13, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
• Run Line: Royals 1.5 -150, Mets -1.5 130
• Money Line: Royals 140, Mets -165
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 40%
• New York Mets - 60%

Projected Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 37.33%
• New York Mets - 62.67%

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

The New York Mets will face off against the Kansas City Royals on April 13, 2024, in an Interleague matchup at Citi Field. The Mets, with a record of 6-7, are having a below-average season, while the Royals, with a record of 9-5, are having a great season.

The Mets will be the home team, and they are projected to start left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea. Manaea has started two games this year and has a win/loss record of 1-0. He boasts an impressive ERA of 0.82, but his xFIP suggests he may regress in future performances. Manaea is projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, striking out 5.8 batters, but also surrendering 4.3 hits and 1.6 walks on average.

On the other side, the Royals will send right-handed pitcher Alec Marsh to the mound. Marsh has also started two games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an ERA of 3.09. Like Manaea, his xFIP suggests potential regression in future outings. Marsh is projected to pitch an average of 4.7 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters, but also giving up 4.6 hits and 2.1 walks on average.

In terms of offense, the Mets rank as the 16th best team in MLB this season, while the Royals rank 7th. However, the Mets rank 11th in team home runs, while the Royals rank 26th. The Royals excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league, while the Mets rank 15th.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sean Manaea is considered the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB, while Alec Marsh is not highly regarded. However, it is important to note that the Mets bullpen ranks 27th in MLB, while the Royals bullpen ranks 22nd.

In terms of betting odds, the Mets are the favorites with a moneyline of -165, implying a win probability of 60%. The Royals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +140, implying a win probability of 40%. The Mets have a high implied team total of 4.71 runs, while the Royals have an average implied team total of 3.79 runs.

Overall, the Mets and Royals have contrasting seasons so far, with the Royals performing better. However, the Mets have the advantage of playing at home, and Sean Manaea's pitching style may pose a challenge for the Royals' power-hitting lineup. It will be an interesting game to watch and a potential opportunity for betting.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The Kansas City Royals infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Nelson Velazquez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 8.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Brandon Nimmo has been hot in recent games, whalloping 2 home runs in the last week.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Royals vs Mets Prediction: Royals 3.81 - Mets 4.73

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