Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Overview

• Date: April 13, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
• Run Line: Rockies 1.5 -130, Blue Jays -1.5 110
• Money Line: Rockies 160, Blue Jays -185
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 37%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 63%

Projected Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 41.53%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 58.47%

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 13, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Colorado Rockies at Rogers Centre in an Interleague matchup. The Blue Jays, with a record of 6-8 this season, are having a tough time, while the Rockies, with a record of 4-10, are struggling even more. The game is scheduled to be the second in the series between these two teams.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez, who is ranked as the #198 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. While Rodriguez's average projections for today's game are not impressive, with an average of 3.4 innings pitched, 1.4 earned runs allowed, 4.1 strikeouts, 2.8 hits allowed, and 1.3 walks allowed, he is expected to perform better than his ranking suggests.

The Rockies, on the other hand, will send right-handed pitcher Dakota Hudson to the mound. Hudson has started two games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.38. However, his 4.59 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky so far and could perform worse going forward. Hudson's average projections for today's game include 5.2 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, 2.6 strikeouts, 5.6 hits allowed, and 2.0 walks allowed.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank as the #22 best team in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking #5 in the league, but are average in terms of home runs (#15) and stolen bases (#19). The Rockies sit at #14 in overall offensive ranking and have an average batting average (#18), but struggle in home runs (#24) and stolen bases (#30).

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -185 and an implied win probability of 63%. Meanwhile, the Rockies are significant underdogs with a moneyline of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%. The Blue Jays also have a higher implied team total of 5.14 runs compared to the Rockies' 3.86 runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Among every team today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Yariel Rodriguez to be on a bit of a short leash in today's game, projecting a maximum of 57 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Rockies vs Blue Jays Prediction: Rockies 4 - Blue Jays 4.52

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