We get a rematch of last year’s national championship game in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Women’s Tournament. The LSU Tigers won the national title with a blowout win over Iowa last season. But the Iowa Hawkeyes are the top seed in this regional final from Albany, NY, and will look to avenge that loss and get to a second Final Four in as many seasons with Caitlin Clark leading them into this LSU vs Iowa matchup.

In this game, we expect the Iowa Hawkeyes to come out on top and to cover the spread as 1.5-point favorites. While some will point to the revenge angle as a reason to back Iowa in this matchup, that is not necessary in our opinion. Instead, bettors should focus on the action on the court, where we give Iowa a slight edge in what should be a tight game.

A big reason for that advantage for the Hawkeyes is their three-point shooting. Iowa has the best long-range shooter in the sport right now in Caitlin Clark. But there is also the fact that LSU just doesn’t shoot the three very often. Threes are worth more than twos and Iowa has the potential to gain the upper hand thanks to that math, no matter how simple it may be.

Also, for whatever it’s worth, the representation for Iowa at the games previously played in Albany this week has been greater than that of LSU. Attending Saturday’s regional final between South Carolina and Oregon State, I saw a large contingent of Iowa fans in the stands for a game that didn’t even involve their team. That should work in Iowa’s favor as well.

Of course, LSU has proven time and time again that it has the toughness and the talent to win games like this one. This LSU vs Iowa game is by no means going to be a straightforward coronation of Caitlin Clark en route to another Final Four. But in what should be a close contest, we will go with Iowa to get the job done.

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