Friday’s Duke vs Houston matchup is expected to be one of the closer games in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. The Houston Cougars enter as four-point favorites, with a spot in the Elite 8 on the line for these two teams. While Duke has the more storied history going into this matchup, the recent success of the Cougars could be more impactful going into this massive matchup from deep in the heart of Texas.

Going into this game, one of the biggest stories in the NCAA Tournament has been the play of Jared McCain for Duke. He is shooting over 50% from the field for this tournament and was especially impactful from beyond the three-point line against James Madison in the second round. But McCain and Duke are facing a much better defensive team than they have in either of the first two rounds of this tournament, which could spell trouble in this contest.

Houston did allow 95 points in their overtime win over Texas A&M in the last round of this tournament. But foul trouble and a constant flow of Aggies to the free throw line inflated their point total against Houston in that matchup. As long as Houston can defend without fouling, which we’ve seen them do so often this season, they should be much better on defense tonight.

When the final buzzer sounds in this Duke vs Houston game, our expectation is that the Houston Cougars will win and have covered the spread as well. The defense of Houston will be the reason for their success, as they should be able to slow down McCain after his hot start to this tournament. Expect Houston to compete for the South Region title against the winner of the game between NC State and Marquette on Sunday.

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