Alexander Volkov vs Jair Rozenstruick Fight Odds

Alexander Volkov -155 vs Jair Rozenstruick

Fight is five rounds at heavyweight and is -150 to end inside the distance.

This main event is between two fighters that were truly once considered title challenger hopefuls. In the case of Alexander Volkov, it seemed something of a foregone conclusion back in 2017 and 2018. I can tell you from a personal conversation with then champ Stipe Miocic, Stipe fully expected to cross paths with Volkov sooner than later. That is when things fell apart just a bit for Volkov. He suffered his first UFC losses to Derrick Lewis, Ciryl Gane and Curtis Blaydes in a period of six fights. He still looked the same fighter, but not quite on the level of those at the very top of the division.

It is the two fights since then that are of massive concern for Volkov. He notched a win against Marcin Tybura, but it was not pretty. Not to mince words, he looked mostly slow and tired by the end of the three round fight. The ugly win was followed up by by a thorough beating by Tom Aspinall. His recent form makes it surprising to me that he’s been given main event placement. It is even more surprising that he is favored against a fighter that has gone five rounds and can shut the lights out at any time.

Good Spot For Jair

Jair Rozenstruick, much like Volkov, built a good amount of hype upon entry into the promotion. Jair’s hype came undone when he was matched up with current champ Francis Ngannou and had the lights shut off in just 20 seconds. Since then he has knockout wins over Junior Dos Santos and Augusto Sakai. He has decision losses against technically superior striker Ciryl Gane and wrestler Curtis Blaydes. I would note, if the Blaydes fight was five rounds, there is a very strong chance Rozenstruick would have finished that fight late. This is a great spotlight for Rozenstruick to gain a main event win and reinsert himself into the top of the division’s conversation.

How The Fight Plays Out

I would be surprised if we saw any grappling at all in this fight. If we were to see any, it would come from the Volkov side. That said, with the way he has faded of late, I would be shocked to see Volkov risk his gas tank in that manner. So what we will see is a striking affair. Volkov is the taller and longer fighter. He will attempt to fight at range and keep power shots to a minimum. On the Rozenstruick side, he will have a massive speed advantage and I believe him to be the noticeable quicker fighter at this juncture.

Volkov will try to recreate past successes, but this version of Volkov is not equipped to fight at this level of the heavyweight division. He might have an easier time if he were facing something of a point fighter, but that is not the case. Rozenstruick will have something of a simple time dictating pace and pressure, and there will be power shots getting home. Make no mistake, power shots from Rozenstruick are as devastating as from anyone not named Ngannou. That power will end the fight some time within the 25 minutes, but my guess is it happens in the first half of the fight. The +180 ITD line on Rozenstruick is very juicy in comparison to the +135 flat line. Rozenstruick is not a huge volume striker and he will always be hard pressed to win decisions. All six of his wins in the promotion have come via KO.

Betting Pick: Rozenstruick ITD +180

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