NBA Finals Series Odds

Golden State Warriors -150

Boston Celtics +130

The NBA Finals have arrived. The Boston Celtics will represent the Eastern Conference. On the other side the Golden State Warriors will represent the Western Conference.

The oddsmakers believe this will be a tightly contested series with the Warriors set as a -150 favorite. This series could clearly go either way, but with the Warriors set as the betting favorite, the value side is with the Celtics.

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Respective Paths To The NBA Finals

Here is how each team arrived in the Finals and who they had to beat to earn their respective places.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors finished the regular season as the third seed in the West with a 53-29 regular season record.

The Warriors started their payoff journey against the undermanned Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets remained without Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray for that series and the Warriors rolled easily. Jordan Poole emerged as a true contributor for the team in that series.

The second round brought a hugely anticipated matchup between the Warriors and the Grizzlies. That series lost its fizzle when the Grizzlies best player, Ja Morant, went down with an injury early on in the series. The Warriors went on to win 4-2 and were not necessarily tested at all.

The Western Conference Finals brought a matchup with the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks were fresh off of a dominant Game 7 win against the top seeded Phoenix Suns. The Mavericks, still an inexperienced playoff team, were not prepared to deal with that sort of success and dropped Game 3 at home after expectedly going down 0-2 on the road. While the Mavs did win Game 4, the result was academic once the 0-3 deficit was created.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics finished the regular season as the second seed in the East with a 51-31 record.

I do not feel it is at all arguable that the Celtics have had the most difficult playoff path of any team in the tournament. Entering the first round, there was much chatter that the Celtics made the vaunted mistake of drawing the second seed and a first round matchup with the healthy Brooklyn Nets. Well, that was a vaunted matchup, just not for the Celtics. The C’s went on to sweep that series.

Next up were the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. The Celtics began to have some health issues in that series. Both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams availability was intermittent, but the Celtics were able to overcome again. Ultimately the Celtics were dominant in a Game 7 close out of the Bucks, setting up a showdown with the top seeded Heat.

The Eastern Conference Finals with the Heat were a back and forth series, that the Celtics finally gutted out in a close Game 7. Finally having some health, the Celtics essentially used a seven man rotation to take that must win Game 7 and punch their ticket to the Finals.

Celtics vs Warriors Preview

This is a somewhat fascinating matchup due to both teams abilities to play bigger or smaller when they feel it benefits them. Of course we usually think of Golden State as a team that prefers to play small, and that was true until the Conference Finals. Against the Mavericks, they opted to let Kevon Looney work in the paint, and found a great deal of success. It will be interesting to see if the Warriors opt to try that again with Robert Williams being far more capable inside than anyone the Mavericks had to trot out there.

Guards

In the backcourt, we will see an extremely fun chess match. Marcus Smart is probably the top option across the entire league a team might want when considering a two way matchup with Steph Curry. Smart is a fantastic defender and is physical in everything he does. That physicality will certainly benefit him on the offensive end. Both he and Jaylen Brown should be able to find dribble penetration at will. Brown’s matchup with Klay Thompson is quietly a very good one. Thompson is not the defender he once was and there will be multiple games in this series where Brown is the driving catalyst on offense, and likely the difference maker.

Forwards

Jayson Tatum and Al Horford matched up with Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green is also fascinating. Of course, Tatum and Horford are the superior offensive players, particularly when it comes to scoring. While Wiggins has been playing extremely well on defense, this is a matchup ripe for the taking for Tatum. If Tatum is willing to be physical from the onset, he will likely frustrate and perhaps mentally break Wiggins as the series rolls on. If the Warriors are forced to repeatedly double Tatum, Horford and others are going to get countless wide open shots.

When it comes to playing bigger or smaller, the advantage goes to the Celtics. Particularly against the Warriors undersized front court, Horford can move seamlessly to the center position. This will give the Celtics a much easier time with switching on defense. The Warriors are a team that like to force switches often. Horford spending time at the five is a good way to match that.

Bigs and Reserves

We touched on the bigs already. Robert WIlliams presence (assuming even moderate health) will be able to counteract any big minutes played by Looney. Where the Warriors will perhaps have their greatest advantage is their depth. Essentially, the Warriors bench can roll out Jordan Poole, Otto Porter and Gary Payton. The Celtics, who we presume do not want to see big minutes for Payton Pritchard, have just Derrick White and Grant Williams to turn to. Of course we learned Poole can be a huge contributor. He is yet another scoring threat Boston will be tasked with containing. Porter and Payton are health question marks, but should be available for the series. White had his most significant games as a pro against the Heat, and will look to build on that momentum.

NBA Finals Betting Pick

I am quite excited to watch this series to see which team can press their advantage. I do believe the Celtics have the advantage in the top seven of the rotation. If we see the Celtics forced to turn to players like Pritchard and Daniel Theis, it is likely to level the field while those players are on the floor.

In totality, the Celtics guards are going to be able to break down the Warriors defense with endless dribble penetration. The Celtics top seven players with the exception of Robert Williams, all have the ability to shoot. A well executed game plan will see either loads of wide open shots or somewhat easy one on one finishes at the rim. While the shooting of the Warriors can be the great equalizer, I do not foresee that equalizer showing itself in four games against a good defensive team like the Celtics. Take the underdog Celtics for the series.

Betting Pick: Celtics +130

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