UFC 273

UFC 273 brings us back to live action after a week off. The UFC 273 card takes place on Saturday April 9th, 2022. The card will broadcast live from the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL. The 13 fight card is headlined by a pair of title fights and also features the most promising prospect in the sport. The first fighters will make the walk at 6PM EST.

We are beginning to get spoiled with the UFC being back out on the road. Before the one week break, we had a pair of Fight Nights outside of the Apex. If one or two live events brought us back to a feel of normalcy, a third consecutive may well get us all the way there.

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Quick Look Back

This is where we take a moment to review the outcomes of our bets on the previous card. That card was UFC Columbus. We had four bets, but lost one of those fights to illness on fight day.

Our remaining three bets had a 2-1 outcome, with the lone underdog play being a winner.

The loser was Danaa Batgarel. I thought his pressure would serve him well against Chris Gutierrez, but he ended up putting himself on a poster. He ate a spinning back fist that put him out. No regrets on that one as that sort of dynamic but low percentage attack was Gutierrez only real path to a finish.

The first win was on Matheus Nicolau. It was a decisive win that played out precisely as expected. His counter striking was the difference in the fight. The other win was a bit more dicey, but went completely our way as the fight wore on. Neil Magny had a rough first round and got himself dropped. He responded well however, and had completely taken over the fight by the third round to earn a decision nod.

UFC 273 Fight Card

We get another event with a live crowd, and a pair of title fights. As if that weren’t enough, we have Khamzat Chimaev back in action against a huge step up in competition. Let’s look at the card, particularly the pay per view portion. We unfortunately will not have any dedicated bets on that portion of the card, but we can look at how the most key fights will play out.

Main Event

Alexander Volkanovski was supposed to have a trilogy fight with Max Holloway. Unfortunately, Holloway was forced to withdraw from that bought and a replacement fighter was needed. The promotion opted for the Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung. This was a puzzling decision as the betting lines are as wide as you might guess. Volkanovski is in the neighborhood of a -770 favorite.

Volkanovski is a perfect 10-0 under the UFC banner and it would be a true shock if he did anything but move to 11-0 in this matchup. Zombie is no slouch as an opponent, but he has shown he is more of a gatekeeper than an elite of the division.

Zombie has lost two of five and three of his last seven fights. He is a well rounded fighter, but it is difficult to see where he will have advantages in this fight. Let’s start with the positive. Zombie probably has a bit of a power edge, but that is where the advantages end. Volkanovski has survived clean shots from heavier hitters than Zombie, and is not going to be truly threatened by the power of Jung.

Volkanovski has the advantages everywhere else. He is a crisper striker that will put out more volume. Volkanovski will also have better movement in the stand up. He is also the better wrestler of the two, and he will be the fighter determining if this fight hits the mat or not. Additionally, Volkanovski will have the cardio edge.

Ultimately this will be a systematic dismantling of Zombie by Volkanovski. A decision win is probably the most likely outcome, so we can’t even skate the nearly -800 line with an ITD wager. All in all this is a fight to stay away from with a wager, even though there is a foregone conclusion for the winner.

Co-Main Event

The co-main event is the much more anticipated title fight of the two on this card. Petr Yan will look to take the title from Aljamain Sterling in a rematch. Of course the first fight ended with some controversy, and we will see Yan try to make up for a drastic mistake to lose his title.

The first fight was a one sided affair in which Yan was having his way. It looked to be a matter of time before Sterling was finished, when an awful decision by Yan changed the fortunes. Yan landed an egregious knee to the head of a grounded Sterling and got himself disqualified. Sterling has been the champ since, but I do not expect that to continue past Saturday.

Vegas agrees with my assessment on Yan. He sits in the neighborhood of a -485 favorite. The best word to describe Yan’s fighting style is effective. He is not going to be the heavier volume striker, that’s not his game. Yan is simply crisp and powerful and his strikes land to great effect and cause damage. He is once again, going to hurt Sterling, and this time (legally) finish him.

I expect to see Sterling bring a more striking heavy approach this time around. He certainly did himself no favors on the cardio side trying to wrestle in the first matchup. We will see Sterling attempt more strikes. He may even land more strikes. The obvious and apparent difference between the strikes landed will be in the damage caused by Yan. Sterling has never been a powerful or damaging striker, and his grappling is still the best part of his game.

We have another extremely wide line in this title fight, and it is once again one to avoid. However, unlike with Volkanovski, there is very realistic value on the ITD line of Yan. That sits at +125 and if you are looking to throw some action on this fight, that is the avenue to take.

Khamzat Chimaev

The sport’s hottest and most rightfully hyped prospect in some time returns to action. He gets a massive step up in competition, facing Gilbert Burns in just his fifth octagon appearance. The first four have all ended via finish, only needing a minute worth of the second round in one of those fights. The rest were all done in the first. The dominance at such an early stage of his Chimaev’s UFC tenure is arguably something we have never seen before.

Chimaev is in the neighborhood of a -550 favorite. This should be surprising considering Burns fought for the title just two fights ago, but it is not surprising at all.

Burns bounced back from the title fight loss to Usman with a boring but convincing win over Stephen Thompson. Burns used his high end BJJ pedigree to control Thompson en route to a decision call. That avenue will be highly likely to be unavailable in this matchup. Chimaev may well be the best and stongest wrestler in a division that boasts Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman.

Burns will be tasked with out wrestling a superior wrestler or winning in the stand up. While the stand up is probably the place Chimaev is most deficient (if such an area exists), Chimaev likely has an advantage there. His strength and power translates to all facets of MMA, and has one shot power. Even if he is behind Burns a bit from a technical standpoint, the power will more than make up for that.

I think we are going to see Chimaev make a statement in this fight. Burns is so exceptionally good on the floor, and I think Chimaev makes it a point to beat him there. It would be shocking to see a submission in this matchup, but I do think we see real control and ground and pound. Again, we are not making a play on this wide line, but I can’t wait to see the next chapter for the future champ.

Remainder Of UFC 273 Card

The rest of this card has solid, if not jaw dropping matchups. The pay per view portion is rounded out with Mackenzie Dern vs Tecia Torres and Mark O Madsen vs Vinc Pichel. The Pichel matchup was moved up the card and I don’t believe it should be on the pay per view card. The Dern fight is extremely intriguing. Dern, the BJJ ace, will have to prove she can beat strikers and Torres is the perfect test for where Dern currently sits in the division. A Dern submission is the most likely outcome of that fight.

The televised prelims bring solid matchups, but probably lacks fighters with attainable ceilings. The exception there would be Ian Garry, who I believe puts on a show against Darian Weeks. Garry will make it a stand up fight and will likely find a KO. His -110 ITD line was very nearly a dedicated betting pick.

The televised prelims also has ranked fighters squaring off in fights that can go either way. Jair Rozenstruick will look to knock out Marcin Tybura before Tybura can get his grappling going in the heavyweight division. In the women’s bantamweight division, Raquel Pennington takes on Aspen Ladd. Pennington should be able to notch a dirty and ugly win in that one.

The early prelims have some solid fights, but will be better for betting action. Three of our four wagers on this card will come from the early prelims. The one early prelim we will not have a wager on is the first fight of the night. We have a banger between Julio Arce and Daniel Santos. That striking affair is certainly a strong candidate for fight of the night.

UFC 273 Bet Sheet

From a betting perspective we will have four plays on this card. Three of which come with small minus figures and the last is a small plus figure. Let’s dive on into them.

Piera Rodriguez vs Kay Hansen

Anthony Hernandez vs Josh Fremd

Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa

Vinc Pichel vs Mark O Madsen

Other UFC 273 Fight Predictions

Julio Arce via KO over Daniel Santos

Mike Malott via decision over Mickey Gall

Rocky Pennington via decision over Aspen Ladd

Marcin Tybura via submission over Jair Rozenstruick

Ian Garry via KO over Darian Weeks

Mackenzie Dern via submission over Tecia Torres

Khamzat Chimaev via KO over Gilbert Burns

Petr Yan via KO over Aljamain Sterling

Alexander Volkanovski via decision over Korean Zombie

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