Neil Magny vs Max Griffin Fight Odds

Neil Magny -235 vs Max Griffin

Fight is at 170 lbs and is +150 to end inside the distance.

Neil Magny has to be something of a frustration for the promotion. He falls short every time he levels up against a higher end opponent. That said, every time he levels back down in terms of opponent, he seems to always get his hand raised. The latter will be the case in this matchup with Max Griffin.

Magny is a very long and very well rounded fighter. His 6’3” frame with an 80” reach is quite a boon at welterweight. Magny will be able to use that range to keep the striking on the outside and run away with the volume in the stand up. He also will have an edge in the wrestling, as Magny is better in that aspect when it comes to MMA. He is better against the cage and it would be something of a shock to not see this fight hit the floor more than once.

Glass Ceiling For Griffin

The matchup with Magny is a big step up for Griffin. Griffin was given a couple elevated fights in 2019 and 2020 against Alex Morono and Alex Oliveira. While he was certainly not completely out of his depth, he lost both of those fights. That lead three straight wins against something of lesser opponents. Now he gets the test of leveling back up in what is easily the most difficult fight of his career.

The one aspect of this fight where Griffin has the edge is in striking power. If he lands a huge bomb early on, he could definitely hurt Magny. The thing of that is that he does not have truly difference making power and it is not exactly likely he gets a finish, even with a big land. The other part is that closing the distance on Magny for striking will be an entire task in itself. It is more likely Griffin over commits to closing the distance and tries to shoot some takedowns. Even if he can land one or two, I believe Magny immediately works his way back to his feet. More likely is Magny stuffs and puts himself in an advantageous clinch position.

What To Bet

This fight is just going to be too much for Griffin. Magny is going to have a huge advantage at range in the standup. He will be the fighter more likely to do good work controlling from the clinch and more likely to take the fight down. I believe he is the better grappler as well, from either top or bottom position. In a spot where Magny has all aspects of the fight covered but a finish is less likely, laying -235 flat is the path.

Betting Pick: Magny -235

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