Phil Rowe vs Jason Witt Fight Odds

Phil Rowe -135 vs Jason Witt

Fight is at 170 lbs and is -185 to end inside the distance.

Phil Rowe seems to be a fighter continuing to make developments to his game. He takes on Jason Witt in this welterweight bout. Witt is something of a journeyman and one whose skills have plateaued.

Witt

Jason Witt has now had two years on the UFC roster after fighting on the regional scene for the majority of his career. The wrestler and grinder relies on that portion of his game to notch wins. He is generally in very real jeopardy if his fights are taking place on the feet. In four UFC fights, he is 2-2, with trends coming in both wins and losses. Starting with the losses, both came in under a minute as Witt was knocked out quickly both times. Not coincidentally, those losses were in the matchups with fighters who had anything resembling pop in their strikes.

Witt’s wins are difficult to gauge in terms of level of impressiveness or ability to recreate them. The first came against Cole Williams, who simply was not a UFC caliber fighter and was cut after two ugly finish losses. Witt did what he was supposed to do, but did nothing for himself in terms of elevating his standing.

The other win is the one that has more levels to it. He won a majority decision over Bryan Barbarena. Witt scored eight takedowns in that fight and was still only able to convince two of the judges. There does need to be discussion on how impressive that win was and just how declined Barbarena is. Barbarena has been taken down 17 times in his last three fights. His last win via finish was when Jake Ellenberger got his foot caught between the canvas and fence and the ref had no choice but to stop the fight. Again, Witt got the job done but now faces the type of dynamic opponent that has slept him thus far.

Rowe

Phil Rowe is extremely long and tall for the welterweight division. He is 6’3” tall and brings with him an 80” reach. He is a dynamic striker that has won two of his three fights under the UFC banner by KO. The straight shots he throws from the range he can throw them will be a huge problem for Witt.

Rowe has also shown decent grappling chops. He has been working hard on his grappling game. A more rounded skill set will be a real problem for any opponent, particularly one that will be destroyed in the stand up like Witt.

I believe Rowe’s length and pop in his straight shots coming from distance will be a puzzle Witt will be unable to solve. That range will keep Witt from closing distance and shooting legitimate shots at takedowns. The result will be Rowe teeing off on Witt for as long as the fight lasts.

What To Bet

Rowe is a -135 favorite whose ITD line is just +110. This leaves little room for expectation of a decision victory, but also brings us no value on attacking that ITD line. This means we will play him on the -135 flat line despite the expectation being a KO win.

Betting Pick: Rowe -135

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