The opening night of Australian Open play features a top-10 player in the world in Hubert Hurkacz taking on Egor Gerasimov. Hurkacz comes into 2022 with high expectations, but will need to be sharp here to avoid being put on upset alert by the Belarusian. In the first of many tennis betting picks for the Australian Open, we look at Hurkacz vs Gerasimov in the first Grand Slam match for either player this year.

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Hubert Hurkacz vs Egor Gerasimov

Why Bet On Hurkacz -2.5 Sets:

 Both of these men have won 75% of their matches in 2022 so far, but Gerasimov’s most impressive win came against a borderline top-40 player in Marton Fucsovics. Hurkacz, meanwhile, beat a top-15 player in Diego Schwartzman during ATP Cup play and should be able to pick up the win here against a player outside of the top-100 in Gerasimov.

 Egor Gerasimov has just four main draw wins at hard court majors in his career. Those wins came against clay courters Casper Ruud and Dusan Lajovic, the inconsistent Benoit Paire, and Lloyd Harris. In his five main draw losses at hard court majors, Gerasimov has won just one set against Jordan Thompson. When Gerasimov goes out of a hard court major, it isn’t pretty.

 Hurkacz vs Gerasimov has been played twice in the past, once in the US Open main draw and once in the US Open qualifiers. Hurkacz won both of those matches in straight sets, winning four of their five sets without the need for a tiebreak. Given how much Hurkacz has progressed compared to Gerasimov over the last couple of years, he should be able to do the same thing here.

Hubert Hurkacz

Hubert Hurkacz tuned up for the 2022 Australian Open by playing in the ATP Cup, winning three of his four matches in that competition. Two of those matches were against opponents outside of the top-600 in the rankings, but a straight set win over Diego Schwartzman is a nice win going into a major. Here, Hurkacz will look to use his superior serving to avoid danger against Gerasimov.

In the US Open matchup between these players in 2021, Hurkacz held a huge advantage in service points won. He won 82% of his points on serve, compared to Gerasimov taking just 58% of his service points. Hurkacz won 76% of his second serve points in that match, and will look for similar dominance on his serve to keep from having to sweat out frequent break point chances.

Egor Gerasimov

Egor Gerasimov comes into the Australian Open having won six of his eight matches in Adelaide this month. Gerasimov didn’t exactly take down a murderer’s row during that stretch, beating just one top-50 player. But for a player who has failed to take a big step forward on tour over the last couple of years, any wins that could build momentum ahead of a major are valuable.

There has to be some concern with Gerasimov’s history at Grand Slam events coming into this match with Hubert Hurkacz. Gerasimov is 5-8 all-time in main draw matches at major championships, being blown out in those eight losses. Given his nature as a feast or famine player at Grand Slam tournaments, it appears to be worth it to either back Gerasimov to win or to back his opponent to win in convincing fashion here.

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