We have four betting picks for the prelims of UFC Vegas 44. Each Fight is listed below. There are an additional five picks on the main card. You can find those here.

Dusko Todorovic -170 vs Maki Pitolo

Fight is at 185 lbs and is -145 to end inside the distance.

If you have followed my work for any amount of time, you know I am not at all a fan of Maki Pitolo. I have bet against him in all of his UFC fights. Those bets have gone 4-1, so he has been profitable for us. So clearly we are going to keep that trend going, right? Not so fast. Matchups make fights and this is actually quite a favorable matchup for Pitolo, and he should not be an underdog this time. While the overall level of Pitolo is still very much up for debate, he does have a couple things going for him.

When he strikes, he does so with combinations. This will work very well for him as his opponent is quite hittable. Todorovic is not necessarily hittable with one shot, but when fighters string combinations together, the chin becomes very available to be hit. Pitolo will mix in body work as well and push opponents to the cage, meaning he can make the hands drop and then land to the head all the more cleanly.

Pitolo is also a wrestler, which will nullify the wrestling game of Dusko Todorovic. If you can’t tell, while I remain low on Pitolo, I am much lower on Todorovic. I have difficulty seeing where the low volume Todorovic wins this fight. I do not believe him to be very live for a KO. He will be at a volume disadvantage. He will not be able to get his takedown game rolling. The paths to victory are slim and it is something of madness that he is a -170 favorite.

In a matchup of fighters whose UFC tenures will likely be shorter than longer, Pitolo has the majority of the advantages here. He will be the busier fighter applying the pressure and will be able to dictate where the fight takes place. Take this very live dog at an extremely favorable +150.

Betting Pick: Pitolo +150

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Jake Matthews -180 vs Jeremiah Wells

Fight is at 170 lbs and is -115 to end inside the distance.

Jake Matthews has a deceptively long track record in the UFC. He is seven years and 15 fights in to his company tenure. He is 10-5 in those fights, which would suggest he’s a higher end fighter, but not so fast. Of those 15 opponents, only three (3!!!!!) are still with the promotion. Matthews has made a career of feasting on lesser opponents. Of his 10 wins, only Li Jingliang remains with the promotion. The remaining nine have been released. Matthews has fought four fighters with successful UFC careers outside of Jingliang. All four of those fighters finished Matthews.

Matthews has something of a rounded skill set, but simply does not have one higher end quality. He is a technical enough striker but lacks power. Matthews is a sound but not dominant wrestler. He has a decent grappling game, and is mostly durable. That said, he is somewhat inactive and certainly does not press the action. He can be exposed by fighters who press the action, and that certainly is a way to describe his opponent.

Wells Can Crack

Jeremiah Wells will be making his second walk to the octagon. The first was a resounding success, a second round KO of another seasoned vet, Warrley Alves. I would deem Alves a slightly more difficult opponent than Matthews. Wells is explosive and will absolutely land the most significant strikes in this fight. He will intermittently pressure and put flurries on Matthews, which is exactly the type of thing than keeps Matthews uncomfortable. I believe Wells will have a longer UFC career, and if history is any indicator, a finish of Matthews can be somewhat expected.

The arrow is pointing up on Wells and down on Matthews. This is another fight where I believe the wrong fighter to be favored. The difficult part of this fight is choosing between the +255 ITD line and the +160 flat line. While there is enough value on the ITD line to keep it in play, we will err on the side of caution and roll with Wells flat.

Betting Pick: Wells +160

Cheyanne Vlismas -185 vs Mallory Martin

Fight is at 115 lbs and is +180 to end inside the distance.

Mallory Martin is a grappler that has needed essentially novice level grapplers as opponents to find wins. She does not have a striking skill set to speak of, and will struggle getting the fight where she needs it to be in this one. Even if she is able to land some takedowns, she will struggle to control. Ultimately, she will be beaten and beaten handily in the striking. It is possible she is released after this loss, but one more loss after this one is the more likely avenue to her walking papers.

Cheyanne Vlismas (formerly Cheyanne Buys, unsure why the name change) is coming off an extremely impressive KO of Gloria de Paula. She will be able to roll in the striking in this fight, and I don’t believe it will be necessarily close. Defending takedowns will be the only real worry for Vlismas. Once she stonewalls one or two of those shots, I think her confidence soars and she simply tees off on a lesser opponent.

This will be a moon shot on this card, but I truly envision a KO for Vlismas. Martin simply does not have the striking chops to keep up, and the +325 ITD line on the -185 favorite in Vlismas is simply too juicy to pass up.

Betting Pick: Vlismas ITD +325

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Alex Morono -180 vs Mickey Gall

Fight is at 170 lbs and is +120 to end inside the distance.

Mickey Gall has long relied on his grappling to get him by in MMA. We have seen improvements in the striking department, and he is becoming more of a rounded fighter. Those developments may serve him well in the future, but this is a very rough matchup for him. Gall will be at a disadvantage essentially everywhere in this matchup.

Alex Morono is somewhat unsexy, but he is incredibly well rounded and well coached. He has ample power and tight striking. He’s going to have a big advantage in the stand up portion of this fight. Morono will have a grappling neutralizer, if not an edge as well. The BJJ black belt does not often grapple in the octagon, but he does use that skill set defensively. That aspect will effectively neutralize Gall’s game plan and allow Morono to own the fight on the feet.

This is simply too much of a level up for Gall. Unless there have been significant improvements from Gall from his last couple fights, Morono will still outclass him. I am unsure if a finish will come, but I feel confident in a decisive win from the -230 favorite.

Betting Pick: Morono -230

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