The Colorado Rockies are a completely different team at home. I talked about that in yesterday’s article when the Rockies bested the Pittsburgh Pirates as a winner for us. The run line would have yielded a sweeter payout to be sure, but it was a 6-2 triumph for the Rox to sweep the Buccos right out of Denver.

Another weak-hitting NL Central offense is in town now with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have been one of baseball’s worst offensive teams since mid-May. Since May 18, admittedly an arbitrary start date, the Cardinals rank 29th in wOBA. They were 30th, but the Arizona Diamondbacks have taken back that distinction with three key injuries to contend with once again.

Semantics aside, this St. Louis offense stinks. Contact quality and a lack of power have been the two primary issues for them and I’m not sure that will change anytime soon. There is a good bit of talent here, but the Cardinals have underperformed as an offense for a long time.

The Rockies are such a different team at home. I ran through the numbers yesterday in the preview for the game against the Pirates, but let’s do it again. Colorado is now 28-16 at home with a +52 run differential. The Rockies are just 6-31 at home.

It seems like the Rockies have spent a ton of time and energy working on pitching plans at Coors Field. Colorado pitchers entered play yesterday with a .317 wOBA against at home and a 4.22 ERA. Those two numbers were considerably higher on the road, where the Coors Field Effect really rears its ugly head.

After holding the Pirates to two runs on Wednesday and two runs total in the three-game series, those numbers have improved slightly to a .316 wOBA and a 4.17 ERA. On the road, the Rockies have the highest ERA of any team.

Like I talked about in yesterday’s preview, I feel like the team is self-aware enough to put a big premium on home games. They know that winning on the road is very tough for them for a litany of reasons.

One of the things I talked about with Jon Gray on Wednesday is that his numbers are actually better at home. Well, Antonio Senzatela, who is getting Thursday’s start, has a 4.76 ERA with a 4.12 FIP overall. But, when you look at his home numbers, Senzatela actually has pitched markedly better at home as well. He has a 3.91 ERA with a .307 wOBA against at Coors Field. On the road, Senzatela has a 6.35 ERA and a .414 wOBA. We’re also talking about 53 innings at home and 28.1 innings on the road.

I think there’s something to this. Before he got hurt, we also saw Austin Gomber with some noteworthy home/road splits. It is my belief that the Rockies have figured something out to conquer Coors Field, but have not yet mastered the art of pitching on the road.

A guy that also has not mastered the art of pitching on the road is Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has a 3.59 ERA with a 3.93 FIP, but peep the home/road splits. Wainwright, who has pitched 65 of his 92.2 innings at home, has a 2.55 ERA and a .259 wOBA in the very pitcher-friendly conditions of Busch Stadium. He has a 6.31 ERA and a .360 wOBA against on the road.

This mirrors a lot of what we’ve seen from Wainwright throughout his career. Lifetime, Wainwright has pitched to a 2.85 ERA at home and a .284 wOBA against and he has a 4.02 ERA with a .314 wOBA against on the road. However, if we look at more recent returns, Wainwright’s wOBA by season on the road since 2016 is .374, .389, .352, .360, .266, and .360. His road ERAs have been 6.18, 7.32, 4.38, 6.22, 3.00, 6.31. The sample sizes do vary a bit, but still.

I can’t help but take Colorado today. The Rockies offense has been potent at home and the splits suggest a lot of reasons to take Senzatela over Wainwright. This is about the worst place to be a pitcher with ugly road splits and that describes Wainwright perfectly.

Pick: Colorado Rockies

Other games: San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds; San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

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