History is guaranteed to be made on Saturday June 20 at Belmont Park. This is the first time in history that the Belmont Stakes has been run prior to both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. It is a different bit of history that favorite Tiz the Law is after.

The last New York-bred horse to win the Belmont Stakes was Forrester in 1882. That’s not a typo. 1882. For 82-year-old trainer Barclay Tagg, this is a chance at personal history. He has never won the Belmont Stakes.

He had a chance. Back in 2003, Funny Cide won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness to be set up as the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. Maybe it was the rain and mud, or maybe it was the fatigue, but Funny Cide ran third to Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted, two fresh horses that bypassed the Preakness.

While a win from 6/5 favorite Tiz the Law won’t make up for missing out on the Triple Crown, it would be Tagg’s first Triple Crown win since 2003 and would be the start of a run at making history with the Derby on September 4 and the Preakness set for October 3.

Tiz the Law won the Holy Bull Stakes and the Florida Derby with triple-digit Beyer figures. He hasn’t won since that Florida Derby, but the son of Constitution’s average running speed would be good enough to take down a watered-down Belmont Stakes.

Nothing against the contenders in the field, but Nadal was forced to retire and trainer Bob Baffert’s other three-year-old monster, Charlatan, is also hurt. Maxfield, a big one for trainer Brendan Walsh, is also on the sidelines following his win in the Matt Winn Stakes.

Standing in the way of history for the New York-bred favorite are two horses bursting with potential. Tap It to Win and Dr Post are both 2-for-2 in 2020. The thing about Tap It To Win is that we have to overlook a lot of subpar performances as a two-year-old to buy in. After winning his maiden, the son of Tapit trained by Mark Casse finished 10th in the Breeders Cup Futurity at Keeneland and 10th in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs.

Many people believe that horses are entirely different animals once they hit that third year. So far, Tap It to Win has figures of 101 and 99 in wins at Gulfstream Park and Belmont. The wins came against weaker competition and he is coming back very quickly, having run the most recent allowance race on June 4.

The rail post is an interesting draw here as well. Perhaps the quick turnaround will help, as rider John Velazquez navigated him to a pretty easy five-length win.

The story for Dr Post is a little bit different. This will be Irad Ortiz Jr. for trainer Todd Pletcher. Velazquez was actually the jockey for Dr Post’s debut and also his maiden win, but it was Ortiz that rode him to victory in the Unbridled Stakes on April 25. That was a weaker, six-horse field and he went off nearly an even money favorite.

Tap It to Win is 6/1 and Dr Post is 5/1. Only Sole Volante has lower odds in what looks like a race for second place. Sole Volante comes from a unique bloodline with a sire from Japan named Karakontie and has a non-household name in the mount in Luca Panici. Panici, who has been a jockey for 30 years in Italy and in the United States, has already suffered a broken collarbone and broken ribs as a result of horse-related incidents this year.

Nevertheless, he will have the ride with Patrick Biacone’s Sole Volante. This is a horse that has consistently run well with five very strong speed figures in a row, including hits on the board in the Pulpit Stakes, Mucho Macho Man Stakes, an impressive win over Independence Hall in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and a second to King Guillermo in the Tampa Bay Derby. He actually went off the favorite in that one.

He just ran a mile on June 10 and edged a field that included Shivaree, the long shot that finished second in the Florida Derby behind Tiz the Law.

Sole Volante is good with the distance and Panici has been aboard for three of his four career wins. While he isn’t the more high-profile of jockeys, he is an extremely competent rider and just might have the second-best horse in the field.

In terms of other contenders, Pneumatic is 8/1 with Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons for Steve Asmussen. Pneumatic’s much anticipated Stakes debut resulted in a third in the Matt Winn Stakes behind Maxfield and Ny Traffic. The son of Uncle Mo and Teardrop is well-bred by Winchell Thoroughbreds and maybe feel like this is a horse that could be a factor throughout the summer. He has been consistent in three starts as a three-year-old after not running at all prior to that.

Farmington Road might be the horse with the most disappointment to this point. The 15/1 shot for Pletcher and Javier Castellano needed three races to win a maiden and has finished fourth, second, and fourth in stakes races since. Farmington Road is a closer and the extra distance of 1 1/2 miles might have helped, but Castellano is going to have to change his running style to have a shot here. He cannot start way at the back of the pack, even though the speed is a lower here than it was in the Arkansas Derby.

Modernist was also believed to be one of the best in the three-year-old crop for trainer Bill Mott, but the speed figures just haven’t been there. A win in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February fed into a third in the Louisiana Derby behind Wells Bayou and Ny Traffic, a horse that Modernist bested just a month earlier. At 15/1, much like Farmington Road, use underneath in exotics might pay off, but a path to victory is hard to envision.

Joel Rosario will ride Max Player, a son of Honor Code that has two wins in his last two races. The win in the Withers Stakes was impressive and a similar speed figure here would have Max Player in the hunt. The workouts have been pretty decent lately, but he is on a four-month layoff.

Jungle Runner (50/1) and Fore Left (30/1) are also in the field.

Tiz the Law should be your winner here. The next step is to decide who finishes second. Sole Volante has shown the most consistent speed, but Tap It to Win is the horse on the rise. Casse will not use trusted rider Tyler Gaffilione here, who had the previous four mounts before Velazquez’s win at Belmont just over two weeks ago.

Tiz the Law on top of Tap It to Win or in an exacta box with Sole Volante added to it is what seems to make the most sense this week.

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