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5 ROUND MOCK!  ROUNDS 6 and 7 WILL BE UP TOMORROW!

3/24/09

It only takes one new pick near the top to change the entire face of this mock.  I know all about the reports that Jason Smith is the next in a long line of Zoloft patients called new Detroit Lions, but I don’t buy it.  The Lions wouldn’t let this out this early if they were serious about taking him.  They are either A.) Trying to drive Matt Stafford’s price down or  B.) Trying to entice a team to trade up to take Jason Smith.  Regardless, Stafford is the pick.

As always, new picks in GREEN.

1.  DET — Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia, 6022 225, 4.84 — Stafford is still the top pick.  Don’t pay any attention to the Jason Smith rumors.  The Lions are just blowing smoke.  Maybe it will work, or maybe it won’t, but they aren’t going to pass on a franchise QB, are they?  I don’t think so.  The Lions have too much money tied up in their current offensive line to spend anymore on Jason Smith with the first pick.  I still think there’s an all-timer of an outside chance that someone falls in love with Stafford, or more likely Jason Smith, and trades up here, but if the Lions stay put, then it has to be Stafford.  He had a great pro day, and completed more passes there than Matt Ryan did when he became the unquestioned number one QB last year.  He’s got a rocket arm and loads of experience.  Plus, his Wonderlic scores were great.  Welcome to Detroit Matthew Stafford.  Don’t trip on Joey Harrington’s body.

2.  STL — Jason Smith, OT, Baylor, 6050 309, 5.22 — After all the dust has settled, this Smith is still the unquestioned top OT in the draft.  After he slips past Detroit, he’ll end up in St. Louis.  Say hey to Nelly for me.  He’s quick.  He’s got great length.  He plays with a nasty mean streak.  And his ceiling is lofty considering he’s a converted tight end with great success in limited time at the position.  The combine was kind to Smith, and he was great in the interrogation room.  The Rams have to find a successor for Orlando Pace, and this guy should be an achor for about 10-15 years.  If Marc Bulger is ever going to be successful again, the Rams have to find a way to keep him upright.

3.  KC — Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest, 6016 254, 4.56 — When you’re already considered possibly the best prospect in the draft, it’s helpful to run faster than more than half of the cornerbacks at the combine.  Curry is not a guy who will be on Sportscenter every night, but there are no weaknesses to his game.  He is incredibly gifted athletically, and with the speed he showed in Indy, he should help the Chiefs actually get some pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Now that Matt Cassell is the QB, Kansas City can focus on their defense, and with Curry they get a guy who can pair with Derrick Johnson to give them an excellent linebacking corps for years.  He’ll be a great fit in the new 3-4, whether he lines up inside or out.  This is a great situation for Kansas City.  Looks like the start of another strong draft.

4.  SEA — Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech, 6013 215, ??? — Cory Redding all but eliminates the possibility of this pick being BJ Raji.  I don’t think Redding is the answer at all, and neither is Colin Cole, but hey who knows?  The Seahawks need another receiver despite picking up TJ Houshmandzadeh.  TJH will be 32 during the season, he’s never had to be THE guy, and he’s playing in a new system.  I think he’ll be great in Seattle, but he won’t be around forever.  Crabtree would be pretty much the only other WR on this team.  Crabtree doesn’t have elite deep speed, but his blend of body control and ability to pluck the ball out of the air will make him a rare safety valve who doubles as an electrifying playmaker.  He’ll help Hasselbeck get back to form.

5.  CLE — Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas, 6030 263, 4.70 — The Cassell trade hurts the Browns here.  Until now, it looked like Aaron Curry might slide to this spot giving Cleveland a new inside linebacker to solidify the middle of their D.  Now it looks like they’ll have to build from the outside in.  Orakpo should fit excellently as an outside linebacker or a rush end in the Browns’ 3-4.  Everette Brown got some consideration here, but Orakpo has better measurables and has a better shot at holding up in he has to play from the line.  Cleveland managed only 17 sacks last season and Orakpo was better at getting to the quarterback than just about anyone in 2008. 

6.  CIN — Eugene Monroe, OT, UVA, 6052 309, 5.16 — The Bengals shouldn’t consider anyone else.  If Monroe is available here, you take him.  This O line is awful and Carson Palmer will never be the same again if someone isn’t drafted to protect him.  Monroe wasn’t quite as impressive as Smith, but he is clearly the number two OT in the draft, and is well worth this pick.  Teams with major rebuilding projects (like the Dolphins and Browns a couple years ago) have made major strides by selecting an OT, and the Bengals should follow suit.  Jason Smith may have the highest ceiling at the position, but Monroe isn’t far off and is probably the safest tackle in the draft. 

7.  OAK — Darrius Heyward Bey, WR, Maryland, 6015 210, 4.30 — That was close.  I almost got caught giving Oakland a smart pick here.  Special thanks to WalterFootball’s latest mock for slapping me with some common sense.  Walter pointed out that Al Davis is not big on taking DTs in round one.  Al Davis is big on taking speed, and there is no one in this draft with Heyward Bey speed.  Other than DHB himself.  The Raiders need a wideout in a big way.  Jamarcus Russell won’t continue to improve the way he did at the end of 2008 without a true number one target.  Heyward Bey had a great pro day.  He stood on his combine numbers but was extremely smooth out of his cuts during position drills, and he caught the ball nicely.  I know this is high for him, but Al Davis is perpetually high on something, why not let it be a quick receiver this time?  Previous pick:  BJ Raji

8.  JAX — Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri, 6001 198, 4.45 — The Jaguars would have lucked into making a smart pick here despite their best efforts if Crabtree was still available.  Maclin is a big time reach for Jacksonville with the eighth pick, but hey that didn’t stop them from taking Derrick Harvey.  Matt Jones is a huge fan of prison food and blow, so he decided to get all crazy high on his way to his favorite Arkansas penitentiary cafeteria.  While he’s chowing down and reminiscing with old gang mates, the Jags still need a WR more than ever.    Maclin does have great speed, and he can possibly become the deep threat the Jags lack.  But he ran so many short routes in college that I’m not sold on him.  Worst case, though, he ends up pushing for the starting kick returner job.

9.  GB — BJ Raji, DT, Boston College, 6014 337, 5.13 — This would be a heck of a scenario for Green Bay.  I had Raji here a while back, but his stock has risen since then, and the chance that he is available here is small.  The chance that the Packers’ take him if he is, in fact, available is huge.  Green Bay has a nice stable of linemen who can and will rotate around the front of their new 3-4, but they lack a true nose tackle.  Raji is the top DT in the draft by a mile.  He has the wide frame and elite bulk to man the middle of the new scheme.  Plus, he’s got a quick enough burst to collapse the pocket and pressure the QB, which is a trait that GB is desperate for.  Raji has a higher chance of success at playing the clog in the 3-4 than Glenn Dorsey did of manning an inside spot in the 4-3.  That’s saying something.  Previous pick:  Everette Brown

10.  SF — Mark Sanchez, QB, 6021 227, 4.88 — I know, I know.  “Mike Singletary isn’t that high on Sanchez.”  And “he already said he wants a pass blocker or pass rusher early.”  But you don’t pass on a guy like Sanchez when Shaun Hill and Alex Smith are your big competitors for the QB spot.  Even if Mike Singletary wants to run the ball and let the QB simply manage the game, the passer needs to be of starting quality to win games.  I’m just saying, the 49ers are going to have a hard time passing on Sanchez now that he should be available per the Cassell trade.  Sanchez is a little raw maybe, but his upside is amazing, and his hands are bigger than Smith’s so he should be able to hold on to the ball.  The Niners can get a pass blocker and a pass rusher in later rounds.  The only time they can get a QB like Sanchez is right here.  I just don’t see them taking the next step with Smith or Hill at the helm of the offense.

11.  BUF — Aaron Maybin, DE, 6036 249, 4.89 — The Bills have a few needs that must be adressed early on.  They need a tight end, a pass rusher, and a center.  The only position worth looking at with the eleventh pick is DE.  Maybin is a little undersized, but he is taller than I expected, and I think he’s a good fit in the 4-3.  He ran a blazing 4.59 40 at his pro day, and even if he ends up at linebacker, he fills a need here.  Plus, the 4-3 is his only bet to stay at DE.  He really stepped up this year and became a pass rushing terror for a great Penn St defense.  The Bills had good success with former Nittany Lion Paul Posluszny so I think they will be comfortable taking Maybin here.  If he can generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, this defense should be vastly improved, and the team should avoid another monumental meltdown.

12.  DEN — Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU, 6042 296, 4.91 — The Broncos have been very active this offseason, and a few of their top needs like MLB, CB, and S have been addressed.  The one position that still needs filling in the new 3-4 that is worth fixing here is DE.  Jackson is not as fast as some of the other guys at his position, but he is the best pure 3-4 DE in the draft.  Denver cannot be successful defensively in the new alignment with guys like Elvis Dumervil at end.  Jackson is strong against the run and is deceptively adept at getting to the QB.  He will be a great fit for the Broncos.  Now, if only Josh McDaniels can teach him to throw the ball…

13.  WAS — Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss, 6044 309, 5.32 — The Redskins took care of a major need by overpaying for Albert Haynesworth.  Now that the DT position is solidified, it’s time to take care of the O line and find a DE.  There aren’t any DEs worth taking here, because in my opinion Everette Brown is better suited to play LB.  Oher is a tricky selection here.  Some would say Andre Smith makes more sense, but Chris Samuels will eventually need to be replaced and I don’t think Andre has the lateral quickness to play Left Tackle as a pro.  Oher has been up and down all offseason, but he was impressive in Mobile, and I think he can man the right side before eventually taking over for Samuels at LT.  With all the top DEs gone, Oher is the only selection that makes sense.

14.  NO — Malcolm Jenkins, CB, 6001 204, 4.46 — I don’t care if Tracy Porter is coming back.  In fact, I don’t care if Deion Sanders found the fountain of youth and agrees to play for the Saints for free.  New Orleans needs to finally address the corner position in round one.  Jenkins is dropping some, but it’s more the fault of his stiff hips than his 40 time.  He did succeed at corner during his entire Ohio State career, however, and I belive that he can continue to play that spot in the NFL.  But, if he is forced to move to safety, he still fills a huge need for New Orleans.  In fact, with the signing of Jabari Greer from Buffalo, that may be what the Saints draft him to play.  Regardless, New Orleans has an awful secondary, and they need this pick.  They have been burned in free agency before (Jason David, Randall Gay).

15.  HOU — Everette Brown, OLB, FSU, 6014 256, 4.73 — Safety is the biggest need, but there aren’t any worth this pick.  If I were mocking trades, which I’m not, then I would have the Texans trading out of this spot.  Like they did last year.  And corner is a need too, but they franchised Dunta Robinson and have accumulated a group of competitors for the other spot.  They brought in Antonio Smith, but they still need pass rushers to take heat off of Mario Williams.  Brown will probably end up at LB, and that is certainly a position that can be upgraded.  But even if he ends up on the line, it will be in a 4-3.  Like the one Houston runs.  He should find his way onto the field early at either spot.  If it’s only on situational downs, that will be fine too.  He will help this pass rush.  Previous pick:  Vontae Davis

16.  SD — Andre Smith, OT, Alabama, 6040 332, ??? — I’ve had Peria Jerry here for a long time, and with Igor Olshansky now gone, that could happen.  But if Smith falls to them here, the Chargers can’t pass on him.  Sure there are lots of concerns now that he has behaved like a weirdo all offseason, but to get a guy who was at one point the top prospect in scouts’ eyes with the 16th pick is just too good to pass up.  The Chargers need help on the right side of their line and Smith looks like a solid right tackle.  He’s got great size and strength and should keep Ladainian Tomlinson near the top of the league for a few more years.  There’s still a good chance that he’ll be gone by this spot, but if he’s not, he will have to become a Charger.

17.  NYJ — Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia, 5105 217, 4.60 — The Jets look to me like they have solidified 90% of their defense through free agency.  The only missing link now is a starting corner opposite Darrelle Revis, but the corner class this year is much deeper than the running back class.  Which is why Moreno will be the pick.  No matter who lines up at QB, a strong running game will take some pressure off of him.  Thomas Jones had a good year, but he’s getting old.  Adding Moreno to the mix along with Leon Washington (who is going to get more carries this year) will give the Jets one of the best rushing attacks in the league.  Moreno should eventually take over as the starter, but even if he splits carries with Washington his whole career it won’t be all that bad considering the recent successes of two-back systems.

18.  CHI — Eben Britton, OT, Arizona, 6060 309, 5.16 — With Maclin off the board, a lot of guys have Robert Ayers here.  I hope for the sake of all Bears’ fans that that doesn’t happen.  Ayers is the most overrated guy in the whole draft in my opinion — he never produced.  Now that John St. Clair is gone, tackle becomes an even bigger need.  The Bears have needed an OT for a long time.  That’s why Chris Williams was drafted last year.  But, even though I played with him in high school (awesome name drop right?), I’m not convinced he can stay healthy.  If he can, that’s great.  If not, Britton can step in and start.  Britton is really rising up draft boards lately.  He is very athletic and has the quickness to play on the left side and the strength to man the right.  Lovie Smith loves to bolster his lines, and this is looking more like an OT to me.  Previous pick:  Darrius Heyward Bey

19.  TB — Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas St, 6056 248, 4.97 — Bringing in Derrick Ward pretty much eliminated the possibility of this pick being a running back.  And it’s been said that a new regime usually means a new quarterback.  Freeman is the unquestioned number three QB in the draft, and I’ve been saying for a while that he would likely sneak into round one so here he is.  There isn’t a more physically imposing passer in the draft, and Freeman is suprisingly agile for a such a big guy with a rocket arm.  Tampa Bay let Jeff Garcia go, and I can’t buy that any of the current guys left on the roster are the answer.  Receiver is a possibility, but they won’t find another QB in the draft as talented as Freeman.

20.  DET — Rey Maualuga, MLB, USC, 6016 249, 4.83 — After all that, it still looks like Maualuga will be the first USC linebacker off the board.  Paris Lenon and Jordan Dizon just plain suck.  The Lions have to find a new inside backer if their defense is ever going to be better than a powder puff squad.  Maualuga may not measure as well as some guys, but he is a vicious tackler who can make plays all over the field.  He might be a better fit in a 3-4, but I think that MLB is a bigger need than OLB.  Even drafting Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing would leave a major hole in the middle.  If Maualuga drops this far, the Lions would be crazy not to grab him.  Suddenly, with the Julian Peterson signing, the Lions have a great linebacking corps.

21.  PHI — Chris Wells, RB, Ohio St, 6010 235, 4.59 — Sure they need two offensive tackles, but they just signed Stacy Andrews which means they likely won’t spend first pick money on another OT with this pick.  The Eagles struggled to convert short yardage and goal line situations last year, and now that Correll Buckhalter is gone, there is no back on this team who can pick up the tough yards.  Wells is a bruiser who would be a great complement to the quick Brian Westbrook.  If the Eagles can start converting third and short, they will be a lot more successful at keeping drives alive.

22.  MIN — Jamon Meredith, OT, S Carolina, 6045 305, 5.03 — The Vikings need an offensive tackle to man the right side, and every mock I see has them taking a receiver, but Im okay with Berrian, and Rice should hopefully rebound this year.  Plus, Aundrae Allison isn’t trash yet.  Ryan Cook will likely move inside from right tackle to replace Matt Birk at his college position — center.  That leaves a huge hole on the right side, which was pretty much there already.  Meredith had a great combine, and really put himself on a lot of team’s radars.  He played inside at guard some in college, so he has the strength to open holes on the right side where the Vikes like to run Adrian Peterson.  Plus, he has the quickness to get to the next level and take on linebackers.  Imagine how great this rushing game will be when Adrian Peterson doesn’t have to cut everything back to the left.  Previous pick:  Alex Mack

23.  NE — Brian Cushing, LB, USC, 6027 243, 4.79 — The Patriots are in dire need of some young blood at LB.  They did just sign Tully Banta Cain, but he is serviceable at best, and even if he lines up on the outside, Cushing has shown the versatility to play inside next to Jared Mayo if needed.  Cushing has rocketed up draft boards with his play in Mobile and his tenacity.  He should be a perfect fit in Boston.  It wouldn’t surprise me too much to see the Pats go corner here, but I gotta believe it would be hard to pass on a guy who can play more than one position for your defense which is a trait the Pats covet.

24.  ATL — Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss, 6017 299, ??? — The Falcons have been desperate for a dominant DT for a long time.  Taking Matt Ryan over Glenn Dorsey may have been the right choice, but it still left a gaping hole in the middle of their D line.  Jerry is a lot like Dorsey, but may be better value here than Dorsey was with the third pick last year.  If he can clog the middle and effectively take on blockers, then the new faces at LB will have a much easier time replacing departed starts Michael Boley and Keith Brooking.  He may not last this long, but if he does he will be a perfect fit for Atlanta.

25.  MIA — Clay Matthews, OLB, USC, 6031 240, 4.67 — The Dolphins need a corner, but they also really need an outside LB.  Everywhere Bill Parcells has been he has built his defenses on standout LBs.  Joey Porter’s play really trailed off at the end of last season, and he may be nearing the end of his great career.  On the other side, Matt Roth is improving, but he is certainly not above an upgrade.  Matthews has seen his stock rise perhaps more than any other prospect, and his motor that never quits running.  He’s a hard worker that should excel as a rush linebacker in the 3-4, especiallysince he spent some time at DE at USC.

26.  BAL — Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois, 5111 203, 4.46 — The Ravens were clearly in need of a corner in the playoff loss to Pittsburgh.  Sure, they just signed Dominique Foxworth, and yeah he’ll likely start, but I don’t think there is anyway the Ravens can go into the season with no contingency plan should one of their starters go down.  I’ve had Davis in the top 15 in every mock I’ve done, but I have been hearing a lot of negatives about his work ethic and attitude towards coaches.  If he drops this far, he will be a steal for Baltimore in terms of talent.  He is an incredible athlete who has great closing speed and good instincts.  If he can find some consistency, he will be a shutdown corner for years.  Previous pick:  Darius Butler

27.  IND — Percy Harvin, WR, Florida, 5111 192, 4.41 — The Colts definitely need a receiver now that Marvin Harrison is no longer a member of the team.  Hakeem Nicks will get some consideration here, but Harvin is a better fit.  His speed and quickness make him a perfect peg to line up in the slot and will give Peyton Manning yet another weapon to work with.  I know there are concerns about his route running ability, but the Colts will find plenty of ways to utilize his athelticism.  They like speedy receivers (Anthony Gonzalez) and Harvin is no different.

28.  PHI — Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St, 6053 263, 4.85 — He may have been overshadowed by Jared Cook at the combine, but Pettigrew is still the most complete tight end in the draft.  The Eagles have long needed a big target for the redzone, and Pettigrew is bigger than Cook, and has had better success as a part of the passing game.  He is also a very capable blocker which will be a big help to an Eagles team that has had trouble moving defenders out of the way.  I just don’t think any OTs are worth this pick now, and the Eagles will find someone later in the draft with the girth Andy Reid likes in his tackles.

29.  NYG — Hakeem Nicks, WR, UNC, 6006 212, 4.49 — Nicks is nowhere near as big as the guy he’ll be replacing, Plaxico Burress, but he plays big.  The Giants now need a receiver more than anything with the signing of Chris Canty.  Canty’s prescence likely means that Mathias Kiawanuka will be headed back to linebacker.  Nicks ran a great time in Indy, which softened concerns about his ability to be a number one receiver in the pros.  There may not be a player in the entire draft with his body control and hand-eye coordination.  He should become a very reliable target for Eli Manning.  James Laurinaitis will get some consideration here.

30.  TEN — Darius Butler, CB, UConn, 5104 183, 4.53 — The Titans have a few big holes on defense now that Eric King and Albert Haynesworth are gone.  And a receiver has been a big need since Warren Moon played for the Oilers, but they just signed Jovan Haye and Nate Washington so corner looks like the most glaring need that matches up with value here.  Butler is rising up boards fast, and some have called him the best pure corner in the draft.  He has fluid hips and moves in and out of cuts with ease.  Butler has better size than Alphonso Smith or DJ Moore and has the skills that could make the Titans’ secondary as strong as it needs to be in a division with the Colts (Reggie Wayne) and Texans (Andre Johnson).  Previous pick:  Alphonso Smith

31.  ARI — Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech, 6067 266, 4.75 — Now that Antonio Smith has gone to play for the Texans, a weak pass rush has gotten even weaker.  Sure, Johnson has been accused of never playing up to his ability, but the Cardinals have a history of taking physical freaks who underachieved in college (see: Calais Campbell).  If Johnson ever plays up to his immense potential (which he didn’t really fail to do as a senior, in my opinion) he could end up being a huge steal here for the Cards.  They have to get better as pressuring the other team’s passer.  Running back is still a need, but LeSean McCoy has probably slipped out of round one, and I just don’t see Donald Brown making it into round one.

32.  PIT — Alex Mack, C, Cal, 6037 311, ??? — It all comes down to who the Steelers have rated higher and who’s available, Alex Mack, Eben Britton, or Jamon Meredith.  With the top tackles off the board, the pick becomes Mack.  The Steelers re-signed both of their starting OTs from their Super Bowl win, and I think that they will be looking for a guy with some versatility.  Mack is a true center, but he has the strength and athleticism to play guard.  The Steelers were hurt against Arizona by weak interior line play.  Remember how many times Darnell Docket got into the backfield?  Pittsburgh drafts value more than need better than just about any team around, and they should find a nice combination of the two with Mack.  Previous pick:  Jamon Meredith