Key Bets & Races for Saturday, August 26
Sword Dancer – Travers – Ballston Spa Pick 3 – Races #10, 11 & 12 Saratoga
The last pick 3 on the Travers day card looks very playable for a profit because the Travers is wide open (more on that later) with some good double digit odds chances and because the other two legs are pretty predictable. In the first leg, the Sword Dancer Stakes, the two European runners (Idaho and Erupt) have a tremendous class edge over the five North American runners based on who they have been facing. For example, Idaho just finished third in the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes to a filly (Enable) who has now won four straight Group 1 races including one just this week. Idaho was also favored in his only North American try, last fall in the G1 Canadian International Stakes, in which he was beaten 2 1/2 lengths by Erupt.
In the third leg, the Ballston Spa Stakes, even though Lady Eli is tough as nails, Antonoe may have beaten her last month in the Diana if not blocked late, and Roca Rojo could beat her to win if she repeats her amazing effort in the Distaff Turf Mile on Derby day.
Race 10 – Erupt, Idaho
Race 11 – West Coast, Tapwrit, Good Samaritan, Girvin, McCraken, Fayeq
Race 12 – Lady Eli, Roca Rojo, Antonoe
The cost at $1 is $36 and if Lady Eli is beaten the payoff will be well worth the risk.
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