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Betting with Ellis Starr - April 1, 2017

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, April 1

Cutler Bay Handicap - Race #12 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:32 PM ET

Inherit the Wind showed a lot of maturity, and talent, winning in his career debut last month, around two turns on turf. Stalking the pace in second early, he drove past the leader in the stretch to earn a 92 Equibase figure tied with two others (Sir Sebastian and Dover Cliffs) for the best last figure in the field. Likely to improve both physically and mentally in his second career start, he gets slight preference among four horses we can potentially make a profit with in this race and in the pick 3 ending in the Florida Derby. Dover Cliffs is another with a turf route win on the course and a 92 figure effort to improve upon. He missed by a neck in his only other start and appears to have a bright future. Erasmo's Dream won a similar non-graded stakes on the course in February then finished fast for second last time out behind Sir Sebastian so in his current form deserves a lot of respect. Sir Sebastian had traffic trouble when third in the stakes won by Erasmo's Dream then returned to winning form under Paco Lopez, who rides back, so he must be considered strongly as a contender.

Bet any of the four contenders to win that are near 3 to 1 or higher. 

Play an exacta and trifecta box consisting of Inherit the Wind, Sir Sebastian, Dover Cliffs and Erasmo's Dream

Pick3:

Race 12 - Inherit the Wind, Sir Sebastian, Dover Cliffs and Erasmo's Dream

Race 13 – Sadler's Joy, Taghleeb, Patterson Cross, Reporting Star, Mr. Maybe

Race 14 – State of Honor, Impressive Edge, Battalion Runner, Gunnevera

Cost at $0.50 is $40


Pan American Stakes- Race #13 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 6:06 PM ET

Reporting Star nearly pulled off the 29 to 1 upset in the similar Mac Diarmida Stakes last month when leading late and beaten inches on the wire. Castellano takes over and the horse may still be ignored in the betting in spite of being in top form and a graded stakes winner last year on this day over the course. Patterson Cross finished second in that race so must be strongly considered as a contender here, as must McKnight Stakes winner and runner-up Taghleeb and Sadler's Joy, respectively. Mr. Maybe finished fastest of all but was too late in the Mac Diarmida when rallying from 11th with an eighth of a mile to go and beaten just a length at the end so is another with a chance here.

Bet Reporting Star and Patterson Cross to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. 

Play an exacta box consisting of Reporting Star, Patterson Cross, Taghleeb, Sadler's Joy and Mr. Maybe



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Betting with Ellis Starr - April 1, 2017

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