AFC East

Buffalo Bills – The Bills had a rather quiet off-season after making a lot of noise heading into the 2015 season. It didn’t help a lot as Buffalo went from 9-7 in 2014 to 8-8 in 2015. Buffalo looks poised for a similar mediocre performance this season. One thing to keep in mind about the Bills is that they have been much better at home than on the road in terms of their ATS (Against-the-Spread) records the past three seasons. Buffalo has gone 16-8 ATS at home and only 9-13-2 on the road.

Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins should improve after a disappointing 6-10 record last season. Miami certainly could be a bit undervalued early on as many bettors likely felt the burn of the Dolphins last season as they compiled a 5-11 ATS record. The loss of RB Lamar Miller is significant even though Miami did have a decent draft. The Dolphins did have some significant roster turnover on defense but head coach Adam Gase is a former offensive coordinator so the Dolphins may surprise some teams early this season. With a tough early season schedule, there could be some ATS value being offered early with the Fish in 2016.

New England Patriots – The Patriots have gone 15-6-3 ATS at home the past three seasons combined while only going 8-16 ATS (33%) on the road during this same stretch. That is certainly something to be wary of as you evaluate lines this coming season. Keep in mind this could result in some over-inflated spreads on the Pats at home. Of course the Tom Brady suspension (first four games of the season) will mean we see plenty of Jimmy Garoppolo under center early this season and that will certainly have an impact on the early lines involving the Patriots. Once Brady is back, keep in mind that the Pats have enjoyed a lot of success for many years thanks to beating up on a relatively weak AFC East division. This season, the Patriots will be facing the AFC North and NFC West as part of the non-divisional action and that means some tough match-ups for the Pats. Look for value in fading the Pats, especially if the Brady early season suspension has a carry-over effect when he returns.

New York Jets – The Jets look to be in similar shape on offense this season based on losing a couple of key players but also adding some key personnel in the off-season. The defense is where there is concern as the Jets did lose a handful of starters there. Replacing that production will take time and that is why the totals may be a good place to pay attention to in terms of Jets games early this season. The offensive production should at least be on par with last season but we could see the defense slip up some and that will be especially true early this season until the jell. The Jets record is likely to see a drop-off this season but the production on offense should remain at a respectable level. Keep an eye on the early season totals in Jets games.