Well, well, well.

Who would have been surprised to discover that Church of England rates are still on the decline post-pandemic? Remember how the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, was so quick to shut churches during lockdown back in the Spring of 2020?

Here is the man himself, all masked up during those fateful days:

I will get to the statistics in a second, but they brought quite a reaction from the Revd Marcus Walker, Rector at St Bartholomew the Great in the City of London, who is also the chairman of the Anglican campaign group, Save the Parish.

He had this to say:

As sure as night follows day if you close parishes and reduce clergy, the number of people who are able to turn up to church will fall.

This is a doom spiral of the church’s own choosing. It has the money to turn this around, the question is: does it have the will?

The Telegraph published the quote as well as the statistics on Saturday, February 17, 2024, ‘Clergy warn of “doom spiral” as church attendance drops off at record rate’ (emphases mine below):

Sunday church attendance is just 80 per cent of what it was in 2019, Telegraph analysis has revealed, despite the Church of England claiming that it has “bounced back” after the pandemic …‌

‌In 2023, The Telegraph published an investigation which revealed that parishes are closing at a record rate, prompting fears that the Church had been “dealt a death knell”.

‌The investigation found that almost 300 parishes have disappeared in the past five years alone – the fastest rate since records began in 1960. 

The figures came against the backdrop of claims that senior bishops and clergy were “putting a gun to people’s heads” to drive through controversial plans to cut costs, merge parishes and cut vicars.

They also came amid declining congregation numbers, leaving many clergy afraid to speak out for fear of losing their jobs.

The Telegraph has analysed new data from the Church of England’s latest Statistics for Mission 2022 report, and has found that across the country, usual Sunday church attendance sits at 81 per cent of 2019 levels, meaning that 133,200 regular parishioners had not returned to the Church despite the end of Covid restrictions.

The Telegraph said that the CofE criticised the paper’s previous reporting, but the reporters stand by the numbers:

The Telegraph’s previous reporting on the fall in regular parishioners in 2021 had been described as “misleading” by the Church, as some Covid restrictions were still in place at the time the 2021 report was compiled.

‌However, the latest figures suggest that this is not the case.‌

Furthermore, the data show that a further 28 parishes were closed or merged in the past year, which has been controversial among churchgoers.

This, however, is below the record-breaking rate of reductions seen in the preceding five years when an average of 56 parishes ceased a year.

‌Across the country, 41 churches were closed, meaning 641 churches have been closed since 2000 or 4 per cent.

Despite some recovery in post-pandemic attendance, overall, the big picture does not look good:

… year on year, average attendance has increased by seven per cent.

‌This means that since 1987, usual Sunday church attendance has more than halved (-52.8 per cent), declining from 1.2 million to 556,800.‌

The peaks and troughs vary across England:

In Durham, just three-quarters (73 per cent) of usual congregants have returned, whilst in St Edmundsbury and Ipswich, it is 89 per cent, the highest in the country …‌

‌Furthermore, over the past six years, usual Sunday church attendees have declined at a record rate with an average 32,616 fewer attendees per year.‌

The CofE put its own spin on the figures:

According to the Church of England’s most recent data, contained in its Statistics for Mission, it claimed that nearly a million people were regular worshippers in 2023 as the Church “continued its post-pandemic bounce back” …

Responding to The Telegraph’s latest analysis, a Church spokesman said: “The Church of England’s 2022 Statistics for Mission – the latest available – showed a welcome rise in attendance for the second year in a row with nearly a million regular worshippers in Church of England churches …

“There is unprecedented investment in mission and ministry taking place in the Church of England of £3.6 billion up to 2031.”

However, that ‘unprecedented investment in mission and ministry’ does not mean that Anglican churches are likely to stay open. The reality, as those involved with Save the Parish will testify, actually means that many are vulnerable to closure. As it is, clergy in some parts of England, particularly Cornwall, are spread thinly on the ground over large benefices.

The Revd Mr Walker is right: the Church has the money, but does it have the will? That is the question.