Yesterday’s post was about last Thursday’s three by-elections in England in Conservative-held seats.

Conservatives and Labour are both drawing conclusions about each party winning one of the three seats with the Lib Dems winning the third.

For both the two main parties, climate change — Net Zero — is important. It’s important for Lib Dems, too, but they are now in a distinct minority in the House of Commons. In terms of MP count, Scotland’s SNP is the third largest party after Labour.

However, other considerations will play a part in the general election (GE) to come either later in 2024 or at the last possible moment in January 2025.

This post will review the minor ones first, then move on to the larger ones.

By-elections: everything and nothing

All three parties are mulling over the by-elections.

If one looks at constituency by-election votes, readily available on Wikipedia, a lot of the time they are a protest vote before voters resume the status quo at the next GE.

A case in point from 2019 was the by-election in the Welsh constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire. On August 2 that year, Lib Dem supporter Mike Smithson, founder of Political Betting, gloated over his party’s win, ‘The LDs overturn the Tory 19.5% majority to win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election’:

However, just four months later, on December 12, 2019, in the general election, Conservative candidate Fay Jones defeated the Lib Dem incumbent Jane Dodds, leader of the Welsh Lib Dems. In 2021, Dodds was elected as the only Lib Dem member of the Welsh Senedd.

Another factor is a much smaller turnout in by-elections than GEs. In 2022, Labour’s Paulette Hamilton won in Birmingham Erdington, continuing the party’s legacy after her predecessor Jack Dromey — Harriet Harman MP’s husband — suddenly died. Only 27% of voters made their way to the polls.

Are the doomsayers who predict that the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak will lose a GE correct? Only time will tell.

Rishi was upbeat as he shared breakfast on Friday morning with Uxbridge and South Ruislip’s latest Conservative MP, ex-postman and councillor Steve Treadwell.

Guido Fawkes brought us a video clip and soundbite from the Rumbling Tum café:

Rishi said (purple emphases mine):

Westminster has been acting like the next election is a done deal. The Labour Party’s been acting like its a done deal. The people of Uxbridge just told all of them that it’s not. No-one expected us to win here. But Steve’s victory demonstrates that when confronted with the actual reality of the Labour Party – when there’s an actual choice on a matter of substance at stake – people vote Conservative.

The Guardian also reported on the breakfast:

Rishi Sunak is in Uxbridge with Steve Tuckwell, the victorious Conservative candidate, PA Media reports. They arrived in a cafe to loud clapping and cheering. PA says:

The prime minister chatted to people sitting at the tables, celebrating the result which saw Tuckwell hold on with a majority of just 495, down from the 7,210 Boris Johnson secured in 2019.

“Are you all pumped?” Mr Sunak said to one group as he thanked Tory campaigners.

He also joked: “Normally when I get woken up at three in the morning it’s only bad news. So, it was a welcome change.”

Well, if Rishi wants to win, he will have to move his party back to core values, those that are truly conservative, not those of either Labour or the Lib Dems. As it stands, many Conservative MPs are more like Lib Dems, championing all the social issues without considering those of their voters. I could name names at this point, but why bother? Unless people watch BBC Parliament on a regular basis, most won’t know the personalities involved. That said, I am happy for readers to comment here on Conservatives who are clearly not conservative.

Incidentally, Boris Johnson — the best campaigner the Party has had in decades — tweeted his congratulations:

Just over a year ago, in June 2022, when Boris was still Prime Minister, the Conservatives suffered two stunning by-election defeats in Tiverton and Honiton in the West Country and in Wakefield in West Yorkshire. The first went to the Lib Dems and the second returned to Labour. On June 24 that year, The Telegraph reported that, while all was not lost historically, it was time for the Conservatives to pay attention:

In November of 1991, the Tories lost Kincardine and Deeside to the Liberal Democrats, as well as Langbaurgh to Labour.

Five months later, however, Sir John Major regained both seats en route to a surprise general election victory …

One of the many reasons that by-elections make for rather erratic tools of prediction is that, by their nature, the random seats at stake tend not to be all that representative.

Indeed, many go entirely unremarked upon because they are safe seats, where the incumbent party holds on without any trouble at all – and with an abysmally low turnout to boot.

Of the 36 by-elections between 2010 and 2019, the seat changed hands in only seven. Of those, perhaps only the two victories by Ukip in October and November 2014 proved to be of any long-term consequence.

Yet what is going on now seems altogether different. For one, the two by-elections held on Thursday could not have been better selected to target Conservative worries.

Wakefield was the archetypal Red Wall seat picked up by the Tories in 2019. Tiverton and Honiton was a previously impregnable Conservative fortress in the south-west.

… these two defeats are starting to fit into a pattern. They join the two enormous swings of more than 30 per cent to the Liberal Democrats in Chesham and Amersham, as well as North Shropshire.

This would appear to be evidence of genuine unpopularity, rather than mere by-election grumpiness. The three Liberal Democrat victories are all in the 20 biggest ever by-election swings of all time.

The pace of defeats is ramping up too. The Conservatives lost only five seats between 2010-19 period, but they have now lost four in just 12 months …

These defeats don’t defy the rules of politics, they fit well within them. That is not good news for the Prime Minister.

Rishi, take note.

Indeed, were Nadine Dorries to resign her Mid-Bedfordshire seat, as she said she would a several weeks ago, Labour could win, according to The Telegraph on July 1, 2023:

A survey by Opinium found that Labour would overturn Nadine Dorries’ 24,664 majority in a seat that has been held by the Tories since 1931.

The defeat would shock many Conservative MPs, raising the prospect that other seats thought to be “safe” may now be at risk …

Last week, Ms Dorries confirmed that she will be “gone long before the next election”, having announced on June 9 that she planned to trigger a by-election.

Labour commissioned the Opinium poll last month following anecdotal reports by canvassers that voters appeared to be deserting the Conservatives in vast numbers …

The poll put the Conservative candidate Festus Akinbusoye on 24 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent, and the Lib Dems on 15 per cent … while Reform UK’s candidate, David Holland, was on 10 per cent.

That’s pretty high for Reform, the former Brexit Party.

The youth factor: inexperience or opportunity

Keir Mather, 25, now representing Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, is now the baby of the Commons, the youngest MP.

Labour’s Nadia Whittome now has a colleague younger than she.

During the campaign, Mather was somewhat unconvincing.

Guido Fawkes gave us the low down and a video:

Guido told us (red emphases his):

Labour’s candidate, the youthful Keir Mather, made a somewhat unconventional pitch for constituents to “lend me your vote”:

In about 12 months time we’ll have a general election. And if you’re not happy with how I’ve done as your MP, you’ll have a chance to have your say again…

It hardly fills you with confidence…

When you look at what voters already think of their candidate, the approach seems even more questionable. In Lord Ashcroft’s focus group, voters were concerned that Keir “looks about twelve” and that “he’s not very assertive. He might get eaten alive.” Leading with a pitch of ‘it’s only a year, what’s the worst that can happen’ won’t help assuage those doubts…

We shall see how he does in Parliament. After all, he was fortunate enough to attend Oxford University and be catapulted from there to Labour MP Wes Streeting’s office, where he has worked until now. No doubt Wes will be keeping a helpful eye on his protégé.

On July 18, two days ahead of the by-election on July 20, The Guardian went to take the constituency’s temperature. Conservatives there were deeply disappointed that Nigel Adams, who won by an amazing 20,000 majority in 2019, threw everything in the bin because Boris Johnson had not recommended him for a peerage. Stupid — and proud — man. He was old enough to know better. MPs do not automatically get peerages, and Nigel Adams was hardly up there with Conservative greats. (Nor is Nadine Dorries, for that matter, another one upset because she was not made a Baroness.)

The article said:

It is Sunak’s top priority out of the three contests, according to a senior ally of his who has helped rally the troops. Mark Crane, a Conservative councillor and leader of Selby district council for 20 years, also admits “Rishi will personally feel it” if the Tories lose …

“A lot of people are upset at the way Nigel resigned,” said Crane, sipping coffee on a bracing summer day in Selby town centre. “It was extremely disappointing that with about a year to go in this parliament, that he should seek to stand down and cause us what can only be a difficult byelection.”

Crane, who has been at the centre of the local political scene for decades, acknowledged apathy among Tory voters is likely to be a major problem. “It will happen. It’s just a case of how many thousands of people,” he believes.

I digress, but that was only to show that Conservatives probably stayed at home.

Back to Mather’s youth. On Friday morning, July 21, The Guardian reported on Conservative MP Johnny Mercer’s interview on Sky News that day. He criticised Mather’s lack of experience:

You’ve got to have people who have actually done stuff. This guy has been at Oxford University more than he’s been in a job.

You put a chip in him there and he just relays Labour lines, and the problem is people have kind of had enough of that.

They want people who are authentic. People who have worked in that constituency, who know what life is like, understand what life is like to live, work and raise a family in communities like theirs.

Well, Mather is from the constituency, even if he hasn’t worked there in a significant capacity.

Fortunately, Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands, who I am assured from one of his constituents is an excellent MP, knew better than Mercer:

Asked if he thought Mercer’s comment was appropriate, he told LBC: “I welcome young people coming into politics. We’ve got young Conservative MPs ourselves, young MPs in their 20s.”

Indeed.

Sara Britcliffe, 28, is one of the 2019 Conservative intake. She represents Hyndburn in Lancashire, ably winning the seat at the age of 24 from Labour’s much older Graham Jones, first elected in 2010. Britcliffe turned the seat Conservative for the first time since 1992, with a majority of 2,951.

Her father Peter had served as a Lancashire County Councillor and had been mayor of Hyndburn from 2017 to 2018. As he was a widower, Sara served as mayoress during his term in office. She then served as a councillor for Hyndburn Borough Council between 2018 and 2021, at which time she stood down because she was a sitting MP. Her only private sector employment was as manager of a sandwich shop in Oswaldtwistle.

Moral of the story: youth and inexperience are no barriers to entering Parliament. Britcliffe does very well as a backbencher and, as such, proves that a twenty-something can do a good job serving constituents.

Net Zero and ULEZ

Now we come to the heart of the matter: climate change policies.

Politicians from both the Conservative and Labour parties are wise to begin rethinking Net Zero by 3030.

Pundits said that Ulez — Ultra Low Emission Zone — was a peculiarly London issue. Nothing could be further from the truth. Elsewhere in the UK there are LEZ cities which will also charge motorists for being in the wrong type of vehicle.

On Friday, the day after the by-election, an article appeared, ‘UK clean air zones: the cities adding low emissions zones in 2023 and how to check if you are affected’:

Drivers are being urged to check if they are affected as a number of UK cities introduce or expand their low-emissions zones in the coming months.

Two cities will introduce all-new clean air zones in 2023, with another due to tighten restrictions and the possibility of a fourth coming into force as local authorities look to cut pollution. The changes have prompted a warning to drivers to check nearby local restrictions or face potential fines.

The ULEZ (ultra low-emission zone) in London has caused much controversy, with locals angered over the plans to cut down on cars in the capital. Labour even pointed towards this – a policy of Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan – as one of the reasons the party was unable to pick up an extra seat in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election.

Clean air zones apply charges to vehicles which do not meet minimum emissions standards. Most charge tolls of between £7 and £50 on non-compliant vehicles, although fines for non-payment can reach £2,000.

The minimum standards are petrol cars and vans which meet Euro 4 standards; Euro 6-compliant diesel cars and vans; HGVs, buses and coaches that meet Euro VI and Euro 3-compliant motorbikes.

The article has a map of the English and Scottish cities that have either introduced or plan to introduce LEZs or clean air zones.

In England, they are — in addition to London — Tyneside (Newcastle), Bradford, Manchester, Sheffield, Birmingham, Bristol, Bath and Portsmouth.

In Scotland, Glasgow’s LEZ came into force on June 1, 2023. Three other cities will follow in the months ahead: Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen.

There are other notionally eco-friendly — less human-friendly — measures being employed elsewhere. During the summer of 2020 in one of the daily coronavirus briefings, then-Transport Secretary Grant Shapps introduced the concept of the ’15-minute city’ as a reassurance that the pandemic was not going to waste, because England would ‘build back better’ in the years that followed.

Oxford will be trialling the ’15-minute city’ concept in 2024 by implementing six different zones.

Toby Young, founder of The Daily Sceptic and a graduate of Oxford University, was apoplectic. On December 5, 2022, he had a news round-up in ‘Oxford County Councillors to Introduce Trial Climate Lockdown in 2024’. He featured Watts Up With That‘s post:

Oxfordshire County Council yesterday approved plans to lock residents into one of six zones to ‘save the planet’ from global warming. The latest stage in the ’15 minute city’ agenda is to place electronic gates on key roads in and out of the city, confining residents to their own neighbourhoods.

Under the new scheme if residents want to leave their zone they will need permission from the Council who gets to decide who is worthy of freedom and who isn’t. Under the new scheme residents will be allowed to leave their zone a maximum of 100 days per year, but in order to even gain this every resident will have to register their car details with the council who will then track their movements via smart cameras round the city.

Oxfordshire County Council, which is run by Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, secretly decided to divide-up the city of Oxford into six ‘15 minute’ districts in 2021 soon after they were elected to office. None of the councillors declared their intention of imprisoning local residents in their manifestos of course, preferring to make vague claims about how they will ‘improve the environment’ instead.

Every resident will be required to register their car with the County Council who will then monitor how many times they leave their district via number plate recognition cameras. And don’t think you can beat the system if you’re a two car household. Those two cars will be counted as one meaning you will have to divide up the journeys between yourselves. 2 cars 50 journeys each; 3 cars 33 journeys each and so on.

Watts Up With That introduced the following news items about Oxford, dated October 25:

This story is so crazy, I wanted corroboration. This is the same story published in the Oxford Mail:

ROAD blocks stopping most motorists from driving through Oxford city centre will divide the city into six “15 minute” neighbourhoods, a county council travel chief has said.

And he insisted the controversial plan would go ahead whether people liked it or not.

Duncan Enright, Oxfordshire County Council’s cabinet member for travel and development strategy, explained the authority’s traffic filter proposals in an interview in the Sunday Times …

People can drive freely around their own neighbourhood and can apply for a permit to drive through the filters, and into other neighbourhoods, for up to 100 days per year. This equates to an average of two days per week.

Toby Young commented:

This story is flat out insane. Why on earth would the residents of Oxford tolerate these sandal-wearing dictators? More to come on this, I’m sure.

Stop Press: Oxfordshire County Council has put out a statement to address concerns and ‘misunderstandings’ about the plans. Read it here.

The Telegraph‘s Zoe Strimpel wrote about the plan on December 11: ‘The green war on cars is about to take a mad new turn’.

In February 2023, Oxford residents rightly protested, so whatever the County Council did to allay fears and ‘misunderstandings’ did not work very well:

From this, we can see that clean air zones are the latest craze. They will certainly generate money.

Returning to the by-elections and eco-friendliness, Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg appeared on the BBC last Friday morning to discuss these topics. The Guardian reported:

Jacob Rees-Mogg says Uxbridge result shows why Tories should drop ‘high-cost green policies’, including those in energy bill

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory former business secretary, is a Somerset MP, and he is being interviewed on the Today programme. Nick Robinson points out to him that, if the swing in the Somerton and Frome byelection were replicated in his seat at the general election, he would be out.

Rees-Mogg says byelections are not always a good guide to what will happen in a general election. He says his message is “don’t panic”.

He says in 1992 the Tories won back all the seats they had lost in byelections in the preceding parliament.

And the Tories should learn a lesson from Uxbridge.

Q: What lesson is that?

Rees-Mogg replies: “That high-cost green policies are not popular.”

Q: Greg Hands earlier defended government policy on the transition to green energy.

Rees-Mogg says he agreed with what Hands said about going with the grain of human behaviours. He suggests there is no need to rush the phasing out of petrol and diesel cars.

He repeats the point about the need for his party not to panic. They should support Rishi Sunak, he says.

Q: You used to criticise him as socialist.

Rees-Mogg says he wants the Tories to win the next election. No Conservative would want Keir Starmer in Downing Street …

UPDATE: Rees-Mogg said:

You should learn from where the government has done surprisingly well against the form book, and learn there that high-cost green policies are not popular.

I think the government should take away the power for these Ulezes, which is provided for by legislation … You should go with the grain of what voters are doing anyway. Voters are year in, year out, buying cleaner cars with cleaner engines. The development of engines in recent decades have been phenomenal.

You can do this by osmosis, rather than by hitting people, because actually all these charges hit the least well-off motorist rather than the rich motorist who buys a new car every few years anyway.

Lord Frost was the next to urge Rishi and the Government to ease up on green policies:

David Frost, the former Brexit minister, is also urging Rishi Sunak to scale back net zero policies. He tweeted:

I didn’t think much of Frost’s ten-point plan, most of which we’ve read before, but his point about Net Zero is worth noting:

3. Delay the net zero 2050 target. Abolish the deadlines on boilers and EVs. Get fracking and build low-carbon modern gas power stations and zero-carbon nuclear. Stop wasting money on green levies and if we must use renewables make them stand on their own two feet.

On Friday afternoon, the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, defended his plans to expand ULEZ to the capital’s outer boroughs:

Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, has defended his decision to extend Ulez (the ultra-low emission zone) to outer London. This will lead to drivers with polluting cars having to pay £12.50 a day to drive them in places like Uxbridge, and campaigning against the move was almost certainly the factor that enabled the Tories to hold the seat.

Khan justified the Ulez extension, saying he was “determined to clear the air” in London …

Labour’s National Policy Forum met on Friday for a weekend-long session, and The Guardian pointed out that not everyone was on board with schemes such as ULEZ:

Alan Wager, a politics academic, argues that the Uxbridge result could make it easier for those in the party wanting to push back against more radical policy options.

Labour MP Emily Thornberry, shadow attorney general, gave her view on ULEZ that afternoon:

… Thornberry suggested the implementation of the policy was a problem. In an interview with the [BBC] World at One she said:

I think it’s the right policy – I suspect it’s the way it’s being done [that is problematic]. And I hope that Sadiq will look at it again, I know that we’re asking him to.

Thornberry also said that the government had given cities like Birmingham, Bristol and Bradford money to help fund scrappage schemes as part of low-emission policies, but that London had not received this help. She urged central government to work with the London mayor to ensure that air quality could be improved.

Just after 2 p.m., Keir Starmer had a message for Sadiq Khan about ULEZ:

Starmer urges Khan to ‘reflect’ on Ulez implementation, saying it was reason for Labour losing in Uxbridge

Keir Starmer has also urged Sadiq Khan to “reflect” on the implementation of the Ulez extension. Referring to the result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, he told broadcasters:

We didn’t take it in 1997 when we had a landslide Labour victory. And Ulez was the reason we didn’t win there yesterday.

We know that. We heard that on the doors. And we’ve all got to reflect on that, including the mayor.

Asked what “reflect” meant and whether the scheme should now be scrapped, Starmer replied:

We’ve got to look at the result. The mayor needs to reflect. And it’s too early to say what should happen next.

Guido picked up on the quote in a post that afternoon and gave us deputy Party leader Angela Rayner’s opinion:

Senior party figures have been quick to turn on Sadiq and his punitive policy. This morning, Angela Rayner told BBC Breakfast that Labour should “listen to the voters” adding:

People are really concerned about how, during a cost of living crisis, that they’re going to be imposed with a Ulez charge that they can’t afford.

Early this week, it was the Conservatives’ turn to battle over Net Zero policies.

On Monday, July 24, Guido reported on Andrew Mitchell MP, who had the news round that morning:

The government’s policy to ban new petrol cars by 2030 appeared to stall this morning, as Andrew Mitchell couldn’t confirm they would stick to the eco-austerity plan. Speaking on the Today programme, Mitchell spluttered when asked if the ban would remain in place for the future:

All I can tell you is it is in place… But I’m afraid I can’t prophesy for the future

Start your engines…

On Tuesday morning, it was Michael Gove’s turn for the news round. He was adamant that Net Zero was firmly in place:

Michael Gove has insisted the government’s plan to ban new diesel and petrol cars will come into effect from 2030 after all, despite Andrew Mitchell stalling on the issue yesterday morning, and Rishi Sunak himself prevaricating on the question just hours later. As of today, it’s still pedal to the metal according to Gove…

Speaking on Times Radio, the Levelling Up Secretary gave an “absolute guarantee” the ban was going ahead:

I do agree that it’s important that the government does press ahead with thoughtful and important steps in order to safeguard the environment…

Asked if it was “immovable“, Gove gave an unequivocal yes – twice. Something two of his government colleagues didn’t do yesterday…

Hmm.

Gove’s comments on Monday about building more homes met with a crisp riposte from backbencher Anthony Browne, who represents a Cambridgeshire constituency. Guido has the story:

Michael Gove has just wrapped up his planning reform speech, vowing to build Britain’s “Silicon Valley” in Cambridge with 250,000 new homes and tear up red tape to tackle the UK’s housing shortage. Although not before Tory backbencher Anthony Browne tweeted he would do everything to stop “nonsense plans to impose mass housebuilding” on his own patch, obviously…

Gove confirmed the government would push ahead with plans to relax planning rules in city centres, allowing empty retail outlets to be converted into flats and houses with less pointless bureaucracy in the way:

We are unequivocally, unapologetically and intensively concentrating our biggest efforts in the hearts of our cities,” Mr Gove said in a speech. Because that’s the right thing to do economically, environmentally, and culturally. [We will] use all of the levers that we have to promote urban regeneration rather than swallowing up virgin land… We will enable brownfield development rather than greenbelt erosion.

He assured he was still committed to building 300,000 homes a year – without specifying which year – although someone should let CCHQ know before the next by-election leaflets are posted out. The PM himself also weighed in this morning, claiming it’s important to build “in the right way“, and “in the right places with the support of local communities and not concreting over the countryside“.

Everyone says Gove is so ‘intelligent’ and that he did a marvellous job as Education Secretary years ago.

Gove’s words put up a red flag for me. I suspect I am not alone.

Conclusions

Net Zero policies will divide Conservative and Labour MPs alike in the months to come, just as Brexit did.

The Conservatives have a chance to reverse punitive climate change policies such as ULEZ and make them a winning campaign issue for the middle and working classes. However, the question remains: will they take advantage of that golden opportunity?