The Detroit Lions UDFA contracts have been released. So, we looked back at the Lions' last three UDFA classes to project what could happen in 2024.

The Detroit Lions signed 15 undrafted free agents following the conclusion of the 2024 NFL Draft and while we are still learning about how they can contribute to the team, there are some hints about which players may have an inside track to compete for a roster spot.

One of the main contributing ways to determine value is by taking a closer look at their college film. We’ve already taken that step for you and broken down the Lions UDFA class in a previous article. Next, we got an early look at the Lions UDFAs during rookie minicamp and made observations on how they fit within Detroit's scheme.

Another way to add context is to look at the UDFAs’ contracts—specifically, the money guaranteed—to help guide us through how the Lions may see a player’s value. Typically, the more guarantees a player gets, the more the team believes they have a shot to make the roster. There are always exceptions to the rule, which we will get to in a bit.

UDFA contracts work in a very similar manner to NFL free agency. Once a rookie is not drafted, they enter an open market free agency period where teams can offer contracts for their services. Like in free agency, players will weigh contracts against each other, look at those teams' depth and fit, and can sign at their leisure.

From a team perspective, it’s a scramble to try and land prospects who they believe can help their roster, while also operating within a budget. In order to keep things competitive, the NFL only allows teams a specific amount of money that they can use for UDFA signing bonuses (to entice a player to sign)—around $175,000 in total.

Some teams opt to sign small UDFA draft classes and offer more money in signing bonuses, while others sign larger classes and spread out the signing bonuses. One way teams with larger UDFA classes stay competitive is by offering additional guarantees via a player's salary. Guaranteeing portions of a player's salary does not count against the NFL’s formula, yet it gives a player more contractual security. While this is an unlimited option, teams tend to operate with some caution because if a player is cut before making the 53-man roster, all guaranteed money is owed to the player and counts against the team’s salary cap. These guarantees tend to go up if a team is very interested in a player or if teams get into bidding wars.

Let’s look at the Lions’ 2024 UDFA class and the guaranteed money that was given to them in their contracts (via OverTheCap.com):

Note: Isaac Rex was cut before his contract was released so it’s unclear if he had any guarantees.

At first glance, Kingsley Eguakun, Isaiah Williams, and Steele Chambers all received large guarantees, which lines up with our film breakdown article, where we noted they were the three players in this draft class who had a draftable grade entering the draft. While the money certainly points to these three as being the UDFA players to keep an eye on, they’ll still have to earn a role on the roster.

For example, the top three UDFAs from 2023 have all landed in different spots. Connor Galvin (who had the most guarantees from the Lions ) made the practice squad and is still with the team. Mohamed Ibrahim (second most guarantees) made the practice squad, was elevated to the 53-man roster, was injured, and has not signed with an NFL team in 2024. Chase Cota (third-most) did not make the Lions roster or practice squad, but did spend time on the practice squads of the Chiefs and Texans last year, and is currently on the Giants’ 90-man roster.

Here’s a look at the Lions’ 2023 UDFA class, the guarantees they received, in what capacity they were with the Lions, and where they are now.

As you can see, players with larger amounts of guarantees tend to stick around in the NFL a bit longer—seven of the top nine UDFAs with high guarantees from 2023 are still in the NFL—but how far a player can rise depends on their actions. For example, Trevor Nowaske did not receive any guarantees, yet the Lions tried hard to keep him on their roster, and when forced to make a move, he was claimed off of waivers.

You see similar patterns in the previous two UDFA classes under the Brad Holmes/Dan Campbell regime. Obinna Eze (top guarantees from 2022) stuck with the Lions for a season then bounced around the NFL and UFL, and is currently with the Jets. Sage Surratt (top guarantees in 2021) initially made the Lions practice squad but has bounced between the NFL and UFL for the last three seasons and is currently with the Memphis Showboats in the UFL.

What you’ll notice is that with UDFAs—like most NFL players—their opportunities diminish with time. Of the 2021 and 2022 UDFA classes, only Brock Wright remains with the Lions and just three of the 25 players are still in the NFL. Tommy Kraemer and A.J. Parker were both on NFL rosters before the draft, but following their team’s new UDFA signings, they were released.

In the end, each player will determine their own success in the NFL, as evidenced by Wright’s success, but history shows that teams tend to favor younger players, and those with higher amounts of guarantees tend to get more shots in the NFL.

For the Lions, that likely means Galvin, Gilmore, Joseph, and Smith will have to show they have developed in order to stick in Detroit. While Eguakun, Williams, and Chambers could have a shot at a spot on the 53-man roster, and at a minimum, should be strong practice squad candidates.

Is there a Brock Wright in this UDFA class? The Lions have 14 more lottery tickets to find out.