Would the Lions dig into future resources to trade up in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft? We discuss in our MAILBAG!

For the first time in general manager Brad Holmes’ time with the Detroit Lions, his team will not be entering the draft with a ton of capital. After finishing the season in the final four and trading away one of his third-round picks, the Lions are left with just a total of just seven picks, and only three in the top 150.

Not only does that lower the overall expectation for Holmes’ draft haul this year, but it also could hamstring the team’s ability to maneuver their positions in the 2024 NFL Draft.

That is, unless Holmes would be willing to jump into future draft picks. We know Holmes has a long-term view of the franchise, but is he willing to make an exception this year.

Myself and Erik Schlitt discuss that and a whole lot more in this Lions mailbag.

Jeremy: I wanted to package these two together because I get a sense many Lions fans are secretly hoping the Lions should trade up. Looking at this year’s draft class, I can certainly understand why. Detroit may have to settle for a second-round talent if they stay at 29, and fans are understandably eager to get a player who can take them to a title this year.

Now, I’m painting this as a short-term move, and if that was the case, I’d say the Lions would not likely trade up. Brad Holmes has constantly talked about how his priority is to make this a long-term, consistently winning franchise.

But this is the draft we’re talking about. Getting top-tier talent isn’t about winning right now, it’s about getting blue-chip talent at a low price that will help you for the next few years. So, yeah, I think the Lions would absolutely leverage future picks if they thought there was a player worthy of a trade up.

It’s not a matter of trade up or let Holmes cook: trading up is how Brad Holmes has cooked. He traded up for Jameson Williams, Brian Branch, Brodric Martin, and Derrick Barnes. While there’s something to be said about being patient and playing the board, we should also be at a point where if Holmes has conviction about a guy, we should trust his decisions to trade up and get them.

I don’t love trading up as an overall philosophy, but Holmes’ track record has earned a level of trust I’ve never had in a general manager before.

Erik: This is a discussion POD senior editor Ryan Mathews and I were having earlier this week, and in essence, because there are only so many prospects that will receive a first-round grade from the Lions, how many will come off the board before the Lions are on the clock?

If Holmes sees that pool of first-round talent dwindling and there is a big gap in grades between those players and the players in the next tier, I could absolutely see Holmes trading up to get a prospect they deem as an impact player.

Erik: A little bit of both. I do think there was some magic in Detroit last season that inspired people to go out and witness a previously down-trotted franchise rise like a phoenix from the ashes. I’ve said this countless times, but the Week 18 win over the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau at the end of the 2022-23 season was a franchise-defining moment, and people are drawn to that energy. Then, to open last season by knocking off the Super Bowl Champs in Kansas City on National television in the opening game—Lions fans couldn’t book their flights fast enough.

While I think it will be hard to replicate the draw of last season, this fan base also saw the impact they could have when they travel in numbers. The passion that drives Lions fans will surely be present again in 2024, and I expect that will mean we will see a lot of Honolulu Blue in opposing stadiums, but how large the takeovers will grow will always depend on whether the team wins games.

Jeremy: I love this question because I’m fascinated by it. On one hand, we’ve always known that Detroit was a football town waiting for a winner in the NFL. I don’t think that is going to magically go away. I expect the energy at Ford Field to be just as electric as it was, for 2024.

But going to games is expensive, especially on the road, and there was definitely a “once in a lifetime” feel to everything happening with the Lions. When will the Lions play the defending champions in the opening game of the season again? Why wouldn’t I shell out the money to see the second-ever NFC Championship Game featuring the Lions? It certainly felt like many Lions fans wanted to be a part of this specific movement.

The whole “taking over the stadium” thing was an amazing wave of Lions support, but it’s hard to imagine catching that lightning-in-a-bottle feeling that this was all so new and so fun. That said, the Lions are a fun team with a charismatic coach, and that should lead to more non-native fans. And that could mean more converted Lions fans showing up to road games.

Erik: Smart final point there. The Lions as a market are growing and with the personalities within this organization, an expanding fan base would also make a big impact.

Jeremy: It’s a very good question, and one the Lions are undoubtedly thinking about right now. I think Alim McNeill is a perfect example of just how difficult Holmes’ job is about to be. It’s one thing to draft well with a lot of draft capital. It’s another to keep a strong roster together.

We know the Lions are keen on rewarding players who earn new contracts, but Holmes has also shown that he has to be financially responsible. He clearly has limits on each player, as Jonah Jackson, Josh Reynolds, and Jamaal Williams found out.

There are certain players who likely fall into a “give them whatever they want” category, but I’m not sure McNeill belongs in that bucket with guys like Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Defensive tackles have a pretty high market right now, with a dozen players making $20 million a year, but I’m not sure McNeill’s production warrants that kind of payday.

This is going to sound like an extreme copout, but I think it really depends on how 2024 goes. If he pops off and warrants a $20+ million contract, I think the Lions may decide to go elsewhere. They’ve found production at cheaper costs before.

Of course, the NFL Draft could play a huge part in this, too. I know you think Jer’Zhan Newton could be in play at 29 overall, and that would obviously change this conversation quite a bit, right?

Erik: Certainly. It makes sense for the Lions to consider taking a defensive tackle in this draft class and there is a real argument for taking one early. While the Lions did make a big upgrade at the position, Reader is coming off a season-ending injury, McNeill is in a contract year, Brodric Martin is still developing, and it’s unclear if Levi Onwuzurike will return to be the player he once was before his back injury.

Selecting a player like Newton—who will likely carry a first-round grade for most teams, likely including the Lions—would give Detroit an immediate rotational player behind McNeill and Reader, has the talent to start if needed, and would be insurance against McNeill exiting on an expiring contract.

Adding a player like Newton fills a lot of holes both now and in the future.

Erik: Chop Robinson is a unique edge rusher in the fact that he has a boatload of elite intangibles paired with a surprising lack of production—which is why he could possibly remain on the board at pick No. 29. While I get that people will want to compare him to James Houston, they are different players in my opinion. Robinson is a defensive end who has the ability to rush the passer from the dirt or standing, while I view Houston as a standup pass rusher who is looking to expand his game with more off-the-ball linebacker skills.

If the Lions draft Robinson, it would be my assumption that he plays opposite Aidan Hutchinson and would give the Lions the option to deploy more traditional 4-man fronts, as well as the 4/5-man fronts they used in previous seasons. In the 4/5-man front situations, the most likely scenario would be that Robinson takes the Houston role with John Cominsky/Josh Paschal kicking inside. That being said, a NASCAR package that includes Hutchinson, Robinson, Houston, and Cominsky/Paschal would be a lot of fun.

As far as also drafting a defensive tackle in addition to drafting Robinson, it is a bit of overkill, because Robinson would push Cominsky/Paschal inside more. But at the same time, there’s a need for high-level depth at the position for all the reasons I pointed out in the previous question.

Jeremy: I don’t know if there’s a more boom-or-bust prospect in the draft than Robinson. On one hand, his highlight reels are tantalizing with the kind of elite explosiveness that could propel him to be one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. But then you watch his 2022 tape against Ohio State’s Dawand Jones (a fourth-round pick last year), and you see a kid who was completely overwhelmed due to a massive lack of mechanics.

But I’m with you. I don’t think he should be viewed as a potential SAM linebacker, even though he did play some coverage linebacker roles at Maryland before transferring to Penn State. I do have concerns about his ability to compete in setting the edge as a run defender, which is an absolute must if he wants to be a true defensive end in this scheme.

Jeremy: I think you’re both reading too much into things and may be onto something. Let me explain.

I don’t think Campbell’s comments reflected anything about his draft preferences—and it’s also worth noting that Holmes essentially said the opposite: that they were in a good spot at cornerback. Since these comments, the Lions have re-signed Kindle Vildor, and it’s entirely possible that’s all Campbell was speaking to.

That said, I actually do believe that if the Lions like the nickel cornerback depth in this draft, they aren’t going to shy away from drafting one. While I don’t think they’re trying to make it a full-time move, it’s clear Detroit likes Brian Branch’s potential as a subpackage safety. They’ve already directly compared Branch to C.J. Gardner-Johnson, so it’s possible they do exactly what they did last year: feel confident in who they already have at nickel, but if a young talent is on the board, they’ll take him and find a way to put both on the field.

I’ve set you up perfectly to sing poetically about Mike Sainristil again.

Erik: I agree adding a nickel corner in the draft makes a lot of sense because there simply isn’t one currently on the roster. And if you’re looking for a nickel corner, Sainristil is indeed the best in this class. Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt may have said it best, “(Sainristil) was the best defender on the best defense in college football”—which is a bold statement but also factually correct.

Sainristil is indeed a player with first-round talent, but his size (5-foot-9 ¹⁄₂, 182 pounds) and off-the-ball position will likely drop him down draft boards, similarly to how Branch fell last draft. The difficult thing about that for Sainristil fans is, that it likely means he will come off the board between picks No. 29 and No. 61, and if it’s close to where Branch landed (pick No. 45), that’ll be a tough spot to trade in to.

While the Lions met with Sainristil at their local pro day, they’ve also recently brought in a few other nickel options, including Andru Phillips (Kentucky), who is another potential top 100 nickel option. This is a pretty strong indicator that the Lions are aware of their need for nickel depth, and could be targeting some of the top options in this class.