In Part 2 of this week’s mock draft roundup, we contemplate if the Detroit Lions would actually trade out of the first round.

If you’re not familiar with how the Detroit Lions roundup works, each week we collect data from the latest expert mock drafts published over the last seven days and compile them (with links to the original pieces) in one easy-to-access article. In addition to providing Lions fans with the names of prospects being paired with Detroit, we also provide commentary that points to trends, player fits, and overall team philosophy.

In Part 1 of this week’s mock draft roundup, we examined the new names connected to the Lions over the past week. Now, in Part 2, we will explore the idea of the Lions trading out of the first round.

Trades

I’m adding a new section to this week's mock draft roundup because of the frequency of analysts suggesting the Lions would consider trading out of the first round, despite the draft taking place in Detroit. It would surely be a disappointment for fans if the Lions didn’t actually make a pick on Day 1, but at the same time, most fans believe general manager Brad Holmes has earned the right to cook on draft weekend, so it’s a scenario worth considering.

When looking at trades, I weigh value by examining two trade charts: Rich Hill’s trade value chart from Pats Pulpit and the Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart from OverTheCap.com. Hill’s chart highly values the top picks and by pick No. 23, picks are worth 75% less than the top overall pick. Fitzgerald-Spielberger balances the top out more and doesn’t see a 75% drop until pick No. 85. Because of this discrepancy, you often see pretty significant differences in the value estimations of specific trades—especially trades in the first round.

Note: For trades involving future picks, I am devaluing them a round (a 2025 third-round pick carries the value of a 2024 fourth-round pick), as that is common practice in NFL trades.

Let’s take a look at some of this week’s trade projections.

Trade 1: Lions trade pick No. 29 to Raiders

Source: Ben Standig (The Athletic)

Lions acquire picks No. 44, 112, and a 2025 third-round pick (with second-round potential). With pick No. 44, the Lions select Chris Braswell, SAM LB, Alabama

“Trading for Carlton Davis aided the cornerback room. Now comes a tag-team partner for Aidan Hutchinson.” — Standig

Here’s a look at how the two different trade value charts view the trade suggested by Standig.

Difference on Hill’s chart: Lions LOSE the value of a late fifth-round pick (No. 168)
Fitzgerald-Spielberger: Lions gain the value of a late second-round pick (No. 52)

This trade shows the extreme difference in perception of value between the two trade charts. In the Hill model, the Lions come out on the wrong end of things, while the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart suggests the Lions’ real value is in the Day 2 pick in 2025 they acquired.

Erik’s Thoughts:

I’m not a fan of this trade because, regardless of the chart you prefer, the Lions are not seeing the benefit this season. With the window for the Super Bowl wide open, I believe the Lions need to find contributors that can find the field in 2024, even if it’s only in a supplemental role.

As far as Braswell, he fits the Lions SAM linebacker role very well and could potentially fill the void the Lions struggled to last season. But is that enough to justify moving out of Day 1? I’m not so sure.

Trade 2: Lions trade pick No. 29 to Commanders

Source: Jeff Risdon (Draft Wire)

Lions acquire picks No. 36 and 40 from the Commanders, while also giving up picks No. 205 and a 2025 fourth-round pick. With those picks the Lions select...
- No. 36: Zach Frazier, IOL, West Virginia
- No. 40: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

Difference on Hill’s chart: Lions gain the value of a late second-round pick (No. 55)
Fitzgerald-Spielberger: Lions gain the value of a late sixth-round pick (No. 205)

Erik’s Thoughts:

The Lions gain on both charts, and while I’m not entirely sold that Washington would make that trade, the player return for Detroit is phenomenal. Frazier has first-round talent and Legette has enough skill to justify this draft slot and would immediately challenge to start.

If this is the deal proposed by the Commanders, it’s easy to see why Holmes would probably snag this deal and move out of the first round.

Trade 3: Lions trade pick No. 29 to the Panthers

Source: Eric Edholm (NFL.com)

Edholm suggests the Panthers would give up a second-round pick (he did not clarify if it was pick No. 33 or No. 39) and a fourth-rounder (Pick No. 101) to move into this spot. Edholm does not make a player selection for Detroit.

If the Lions got pick No. 33...

Difference on Hill’s chart: Lions gain the value of a fifth-round pick (No. 148)
Fitzgerald-Spielberger: Lions gain the value of a fourth-round pick (No. 114)

If the Lions got pick No. 39...

Difference on Hill’s chart: Lions LOSE the value of a late sixth-round pick (No. 204)
Fitzgerald-Spielberger: Lions gain the value of a high fifth-round pick (No. 136)

Erik’s Thoughts:

Assuming the trade would include pick No. 33—because it makes the most sense on both value charts—Carolina adding just a fourth-rounder to the mix certainly satisfies the trade value charts. The problem I am having with this one is, yes it’s only four spots, but the Lions lose the fifth-year option on their pick by making this trade. Is that worth a Day 3 pick?

Summary

While I wouldn’t put it past Holmes to trade out of the first round, I only imagine he would do it if the return was of enough value that he couldn’t turn away. Simply adding a Day 3 pick typically meets the requirements of a fair trade but if I’m Holmes, I would want extra compensation—especially considering the Lions would be losing the fifth-year option.