By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal

The Commonwealth is an association of 56 independent state that was formed in its present iteration in 1949 by the London Declaration which established the member states as “free and equal.” The Head of the Commonwealth, which until now was Queen Elizabeth II, is recognised by member states as the “symbol of their free association.”

The 1931 Statute of Westminster, passed by the United Kingdom parliament, had set the basis of the relationship between the self-governing Commonwealth realms and the Crown.

For most of its members, the head of the organization is a ceremonial role and it was not automatic that the new Monarch would succeed Elizabeth in this position. However, the former Prince of Wales, now King Charles III, was appointed as the designated successor at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in 2018.

The Commonwealth, which includes almost a third of the world’s population, about 2.6 billion people, will face various issues now that the Queen has died and has been succeeded by Charles.

When she became the British monarch in 1952, the Commonwealth had few sovereign members; most were colonies and protectorates of an empire that at that time had seen only a few attain independence. Since 1952, new realms have been created through the independence of former colonies and dependencies, but many others have become republics.

Today there are 14 Commonwealth realms apart from Britain: Antigua and Barbuda; Australia; the Bahamas; Belize; Canada; Grenada; Jamaica, New Zealand; Papua New Guinea; Saint Kitts and Nevis; Saint Lucia; Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; the Solomon Islands; and Tuvalu. Most are small and relatively poor island countries. In these, a governor-general represents the monarch.

The rest of the Commonwealth has heads of state who are either presidents or native monarchs. The Queen’s death is a precarious moment for some of those countries which still recognise the monarch as their head of state. In many cases their constitutions state that the Queen, specifically, is the head of state. In these countries, constitutions will need to be amended to refer to her successor.

In countries such as Jamaica, where there is a strong republican movement, and Belize, these constitutional changes will also require a referendum, according to Commonwealth experts. This is expected to bring about a moment of political peril for the new monarch, who, after Barbados became a republic in 2021, could face the loss of other parts of the Caribbean Commonwealth.

The Barbadian example may serve as a precedent. It became independent in 1966, as a realm. A government commission in 1979 recommended the retention of the monarchy. This was not a uniquely Barbadian phenomenon: of Britain’s former Caribbean colonies, only Dominica became a republic at its independence in 1978. 

Barbadian public opinion was certainly influenced by perceptions of the Guyanese experience. Guyana retained the Queen as head of state at independence in 1966 but became a republic in 1970. Many Barbadians associated the republican system in Guyana with the rule of Forbes Burnham, who became a virtual dictator.

But as the island’s past history as a slave plantation became better known, republican sentiment grew, and last year it terminated the link with the monarchy while remaining in the Commonwealth.

The rest of the Commonwealth Caribbean may follow. In March, when Prince William and his wife Kate arrived in the Bahamas, they were met by demonstrations over the British Empire’s legacy.

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge had already faced a protest by Belize villagers and a rally in Jamaica for slavery reparations, as well as unusually direct comments by Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness, who made it plain that the country’s true ambitions are to be “an independent, developed, prosperous country.”

Meanwhile, Prince Edward and his wife Sophie, the Earl and Countess of Wessex, cancelled their own visit to Grenada, where members of its Reparations Commission on slavery wished to meet with them -- and doubtless why they felt this would be a fraught encounter.

They did travel to Antigua and Barbuda, where Prime Minister Gaston Browne said he believes all the countries within the Commonwealth Caribbean “aspire to become a republic,” shortly before requesting the couple use their influence to facilitate “constructive talks” on reparatory justice for slavery.

Before Barbados cut the cord with the Queen last November, it was a full 30 years since the last country, Mauritius, removed her as head of state, in 1992. Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, and Dominica became republics in the 1970s, while Fiji went that route in 1987.

But there are republican movements even in the old dominions. In 1999, Australia held a referendum on whether to become a republic, and although monarchists won by 55 per cent to 45 per cent, the debate is still ongoing.

Questions are also likely to arise in many realms over whether the new monarch could lawfully appoint a governor general if the relevant country’s constitution has not been changed to refer to the King and continues to refer to the Queen as head of state.

Among the constitutional monarchies, Australia, Canada and New Zealand have measures in place so the new monarch automatically becomes head of state. Canada abandoning the monarchy would require unanimous consent from the provinces and Parliament, and such an agreement across the country is unlikely.